Quinnipiac University (6/26-7/1, registered voters, 4/28-5/4 in parens):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 42 (51)
John Kasich (R): 38 (32)
Undecided: 16 (16)Ted Strickland (D-inc): 41 (48)
Mike DeWine (R): 40 (36)
Undecided: 15 (14)
(MoE: ±2.8%)
Something seriously ugly has happened here. Strickland’s approvals fell from 53-25 in May to just 42-37 now. It’s easy to say that it’s “the economy,” but the economy has been disastrous for a long time at this point. Quinnipiac offers almost nothing in the way of explanation (“Strickland’s extremely sharp drop-off in so short a time reflects growing public frustration”).
The only other outfit which has tested this race, PPP, has similar numbers for Strickland, but never showed the kind of steep topline drop we see here from Q. However, these lates nums do help resolve the OH-Gov mystery that Tom Jensen previously highlighted, and unfortunately for Dems, it looks like PPP is right (at least for now).
RaceTracker: OH-Gov
Looking at the crosstabs, the number of Don’t Know/Didn’t Answer has stayed relatively static while support has decreased for Strickland. Couple thing stick out though. First, Ted’s only got 70% approval from Democrats at the moment, and in his hypothetical matchup with DeWine, only 78% support Strickland in a matchup. Call me optimistic, but I have a hard time believing over 10% of Ohio Democrats will vote against Strickland in the general. The same was true in the PPP poll; he did unbelievably weak in amongst Team Blue voters. I sure as hell don’t Kasich or DeWine will make that big on inroads into the base. On that alone Strickland’s going to have a fighting chance – if not be favored – to win re-election.
Personally, I see his decline as his lack of a public offensive to keep his image up. Like Ritter in Colorado, they haven’t really shown voters that they are active in fixing their state’s problems. So while he hasn’t done anything recently to hurt his image, he certainly hasn’t done much to help it either. In an anti-incumbent atmosphere, that’s toxic for a politico.
Are likely a result of the recent cuts in the state budget. Many programs were cut down or even eliminated to restore the state’s fiscal health, which I’m sure got under people’s skin. I agree though, looking at the crosstabs, Strickland is still in good shape. There is no way that 22% of Ohio Democrats vote against him. For that to happen, Kasich/Dewine would have to win Cincinnati and Dayton big, he’d have to win Columbus outright (not likely considering that Obama won by 19% in Franklin County) and he’d have to make serious inroads in Toledo, Cleveland, Akron, and Youngstown. I just don’t see that happening considering northern Ohio’s bent against free trade and against economic deregulation.
Being unhappy about your program being cut is one thing, but parlaying that into voting for the Republican is another thing altogether.