Republican party leaders chose state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, a leading moderate in the state legislature, as their nominee to succeed Rep. John McHugh (R-N.Y.) in an upcoming special election.
The eleven Republican county chairmen within the 23rd Congressional District voted this afternoon, and Scozzafava won on the third ballot.
Scozzafava is a pretty rare breed these days — a socially liberal (pro-choice, pro-marriage equality, labor-friendly) Republican, so it’s a bit surprising that someone cut from her cloth could win a nomination battle in today’s GOP. Then again, she was chosen by the 23rd District’s county chairs, not the birther-dominated rank and file, so perhaps some sanity remains intact in the NY GOP intelligentsia these days. That said, she’s going to run into some serious problems with the conservative base, and it seems unlikely that she’ll win the Conservative Party’s ballot line, especially if Democratic state Sen. Darrel Aubertine jumps into the fray. (Update: Just to be a bit clearer here, I don’t think there’s any chance of the Conservative Party endorsing Aubertine, but they could field their own candidate in order to flip the bird to the GOP.)
This also comes on the same day that a significant amount of oppo dirt was released on Scozzafava, who was vetted and courted by Democratic operatives as a potential party-switcher:
But their interest cooled after they found out her brother’s business, Seaway Capital Partners, owed over $192,000 in unpaid state and federal taxes – which operatives thought could be a liability in the special election.
The conservative blog Red State — one of her leading critics — recently posted copies of the liens from the company’s subsidiaries. On her legislative website, Scozzafava is listed as the COO of the company’s investment arm, though she claims she hasn’t had any direct ties to the company since 2007.
Not exactly the best press to receive on your launch date, huh? For what it’s worth, the Republican online wingnut brigade is encouraging its readers to support Aubertine over Scozzafava. God bless those magnificent idiots.
RaceTracker wiki: NY-23
Do they have any idea how bad it would look for them to lose a second straight special election? What a gift to Obama and Democrats in general. I imagine it would also be a boost in VA and NJ.
If Aubertine doesn’t get into it, who’s the next most likely Democrat in the race? Is there anyone else who’s expressed an interest?
It’s a huge assumption, and very likely wrong, since many conservatives may vote Dem in this race, but if Scozzafava wins, I’m taking bets on how long she remains a GOPer. My call is six months or less…she doesn’t have the Chafee pedigree holding her down and she seems more progressive than the Maine Twins. Life sucks being a Javits-like Republican (at least ideologically, who knows if she’s that good) in the significant minority in a very conservative and intolerant Republican Party.
I’d initially think this was a pretty good score for the GOP. But I forgot that in NY, there are other ballot lines, and the Conservative Party could easily endorse someone else and cost her a good 5%. Heck, if the Conservatives endorse Aubertine instead of one of their own, that would be equivalent to a 10% shift instead of 5%.
Aubertine with every ballot line except the GOP one wins this election, hands down.
A popular liberal State Senator is getting the nomination if the part that doesn’t appreciate her.
The guy that spent $500k on trying to beat her might be a decent shot for the conservative line.
If the Conservative Party backs her, they should be stuck with her for decades (absent massive gerrymandering).
On the other hand, if Aubertine wins, he can be opposed in 2010 by someone more conservative, and in line with Red State philosophy.
Put another way, Cao for 2 years is better than Jefferson for another 20 years.
This could set up a pro-choice Republican vs. a pro-life Democrat fight. Pretty rare in politics these days. In fact i wouldnt be surprised if Scozzafava is all-around more socially liberal than Aubertine is. As isnt he against gay marriage? Although he could still be against it and be against any federal const. amendment to ban it (not that itll even have a chance of passing anytime soon…if ever. probably not ever).
And while the GOP rank-and-file can be more conservative than the party establishment sometimes they often also can be more moderate. The polls definitely indicate they are more moderate on issues like health care and same sex civil unions.
Is Scott Murphy a blue dog democrat?
I know saying this could come back to bite me in the ass but whatever.
If Scozzafava is for gay marriage at the federal level as well as the state, I’m going to be extremely compelled to root for her. I didnt get involved in politics and campaigns because I’m a Democrat, I got involved because I had George Bush as a president for 8 years and I became a pissed off queer. We dont need this seat, it’s a pick-up not a defense, it’s EXTREMELY disheartening to hear that Aubertine is more conservative than Scozzafava and I’d much rather betray my party than betray the civil rights I know I deserve. (Thank god I live in the Twin Cities and will never have to deal with an anti-gay marriage DFLer and a pro-gay marriage GOPer. Its easy to say Im probably rooting for someone from a completely different state but I dont know if I could actually vote for them.)
Flame away! 🙂
http://www.votesmart.org/votin…
http://www.votesmart.org/votin…
At a glance I’d say on economic issues Scozzafava would be with the national GOP and Aubertine would be a decent party-line vote. Both pro-gun as you would expect from Upstaters. Nothing on abortion obviously.
That’s probably going to be health care reform and cap and trade. It’s certainly not going to be gay marriage and abortion. I imagine the people of NY-23 are likely to support the liberal positions on health care reform and on environmental legislation. NY-23 is right next to Canada, so it will be hard to lie to them about how awful socialized medicine is.
All these new Democratic Congressmen have been elected since 2006. They all had different backgrounds before they got elected to Congress. And now it’s interesting to see what they do in Congress, and how they vote. It’s kind of like building the party from scratch because these are so many seats in the same region that haven’t elected Democrats before.
If Darrel Aubertine ends up being the Democratic nominee, I’m going to be left with no choice but to support Dede Scozzafava. I can not, in good conscience, support an anti-choice candidate over a pro-choice one.
As a side note, I’m getting really goddamn sick and tired of the Democrats throwing women’s rights overboard by running anti-choice candidates in purple or blue districts or states. I’m not unreasonable. I can understand running anti-choice candidates in super-red districts or states that wouldn’t vote for a pro-choice candidate in a million years, but other than that, there’s no excuse for it.
And it’s not just women’s rights that are being affected. Right now, at this very moment, the anti-choice Democrats in the house are holding health care reform hostage to their fanatical anti-abortion zealotry.