That’s what Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman would like you to believe. Hoffman, as you know, is running to the right of socially moderate GOPer Dede Scozzafava and Democrat Bill Owens in the special election to replace John McHugh (who one of these days may actually get to serve as Army Secretary). Hoffman’s inked a top-tier GOP polling firm for his campaign, which is a pretty solid tea leaf that he’s serious about running a real campaign. Here’s his first publicly-released poll:
McLaughlin & Associates (8/25-26, likely voters):
Bill Owens (D): 20
Dede Scozzafava (R): 30
Doug Hoffman (C): 19
Undecided: 31
(MoE: ±5.7%)
Those are pretty remarkable numbers — especially the 20% figure for Owens. (Surely, Owens suffers from a severe case of “Some Dude” syndrome, but that’s a pretty low baseline for a Democrat to be starting at in an Obama district.) Whether or not Hoffman’s candidacy is the deciding factor in this race remains to be seen, but one thing seems probable: he can’t be ignored when handicapping this race.
RaceTracker Wiki: NY-23
I disagree with the notion that being at 20% is bad for Owens and his some dude syndrome.
Many of the Democrats in this district probably know and like Scozzafava…..its similar to how moderate Dems like Snowe keep getting elected in Maine. You can’t tell me there wasn’t a significant percentage of Obama voters who voted for Susan Collins over Tom Allen. Thats probably the case here too. They have no idea who Bill Owens is, they know Scozzafava, have voted for her in the past, and plan to do so again unless Owens’s message changes their mind.
I refuse to believe that with 31% undecided…that the 49% that say they will vote for Scozzafava of hoffman are all Republicans. I’d bet that 10% of Scozzafava’s 30% is Democratic voters.
that douche Brownback hold up McHugh’s appointment? Sheesh…
Starts off from a stronger position than Scott Murphy did. Like other posters have said, Dede is well known and has some liberal positions so a good few of her votes will be Dems who might be persuaded to move if they like what they hear when Owens introduces himself.
is the campaign theme Bill Owens needs in order to get 40-45% and win the 3-way race. Sure Dede Scozzafava is moderate. Maybe she’s even a little left of center. She supports abortion rights and gay marriage. But would she vote against a health reform bill that doesn’t have a public option? That’s where Bill Owens needs to contrast himself in order to get the votes. I’m not saying he should be Dennis Kucinich, just a solid liberal. There is a growing frustration on the left that Obama and the Congressional Democrats keep caving to the Republicans. If he can tap that frustration then he can get enough votes to win a 3-way race. But if he campaigns as a centrist then he will lose to the centrist candidate with the better resume.
Rob Miller gave Joe Wilson (SC-2) of ‘you lie’ fame, a very close run last time (54-46). That was the closest race in a very long time for SC 2.
How about some internet cash love for Miller?
http://robmillerforcongress.co…
Scozzafava would be the most LIBERAL Republican in the House of Reps. She would also be much more liberal than a lot of the Blue Dogs Dems.
How liberal is Scozzafava’s Assembly record? Last year she scored a 15 out of 100 on the Conservative Party’s Legislative Scorecard. For comparison Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver scored a 5! In fact 46 Democratic members of the New York state Legislature had a more conservative voting record than Dede Scozzafava.
In her 2008 re-election campaign she was cross endorsed by the Working Families Party.
Her husband is a prominent upstate labor leader and she has consistantly voted with labor on issues in the NYS Assembly.
Finally the Democrat leaders in the district tried to get her to run as a Democrat before the Republicans gave her the nod.
Owens (who has been a registered indpendent) would most likely be to the right of her.