CT-Sen: Dodd Trails Simmons In Two Polls

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/8-10, likely voters, 3/23-25 in parentheses):

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42 (45)

Rob Simmons (R): 46 (40)

Undecided: 12 (15)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 46 (51)

Sam Caligiuri (R): 37 (30)

Undecided: 17 (19)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 44 (NA)

Tom Foley (R): 40 (NA)

Undecided: 16 (NA)

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 47 (NA)

Peter Schiff (R): 35 (NA)

Undecided: 18 (NA)

(MoE: ±4%)

Rob Simmons (R): 38

Sam Caligiuri (R): 7

Thomas Foley (R): 6

Peter Schiff (R): 1

Undecided: 48

(MoE: ±5%)

Research 2000 takes a look at the Connecticut Senate race, and while of course it’s never good to be an incumbent who’s trailing a challenger, things are looking merely bad for Chris Dodd instead of dire. Note that the R2K trendlines have actually gone down for Dodd, but this still feels like a marked improvement because it’s been six months since R2K polled, during which time two Quinnipiac polls have seen a precipitous decline for Dodd (most recently, giving ex-Rep. Rob Simmons a 48-39 edge over Dodd). Maybe it’s an apples and oranges problem, or maybe we’ve seen Dodd bottom out and start back up as the economy improves and his woes associated with the Wall Street Bailout recede in the rear-view.

R2K also looks ahead to the 2012 Senate race, but their poll is conditioned on the assumption that Jodi Rell runs for the GOP (and it’s not even clear yet that she’s running for re-election as Governor)… and it’s also conditioned on Joe Lieberman not finding a way to win back the Democratic primary. Rell wins a Rell/Ned Lamont/Joe Lieberman match-up 46-26-26, and a Rell/Richard Blumenthal/Lieberman match-up 40-32-23. It also finds 68-21 support for the public option, and 87-6 rejection of birtherism.

Rasmussen (9/10, likely voters):

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 39

Rob Simmons (R): 49

Some other: 5

Not sure: 6

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 40

Tom Foley (R): 43

Some other: 7

Not sure: 10

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 43

Sam Caligiuri (R): 40

Some other: 7

Not sure: 10

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 42

Peter Schiff (R): 40

Some other: 7

Not sure: 10

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen (from numbers released last Friday) paints a grimmer picture for Dodd in their first look at this race, showing him down 9 against Simmons and also down 3 against Tom Foley, the former Ambassador to Ireland. Dodd beats the more conservative options, state Sen. Caligiuri and Paulist economist Peter Schiff.

Rasmussen doesn’t poll the Republican primary, although R2K finds Rob Simmons in commanding position there. The already-cluttered field sounds like it’s going to get even bigger (and weirder) with the addition of World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon to the mix, with the threat of her bringing $30 million of her own money with her. This creates the specter of a riotous primary where the contestants are not just metaphorically but literally hitting each other over the heads with folding chairs — but Connecticut uses a party endorsement process where the real vote that counts is the May convention vote among 1,600 town committee members. The winner goes onto the primary ballot with the party’s endorsement, although candidates who receive at least 15% of the vote at the convention may still petition to appear on the ballot in the August primary — but you’ve gotta wonder whether the Schiffs and McMahons of the field, with no political party connections whatsoever, will even make it over that threshold. (UPDATE: McMahon was a heavy contributor to Jodi Rell and was appointed in early 2009 to the Connecticut State Board of Education, so she’s not totally out of the political loop.)

RaceTracker Wiki: CT-Sen