Rule #1 in political stagecraft: always, always secure your sightlines.
How did this happen? Dede Scozzafava and/or her staff had the genius idea to do an event challenging Doug Hoffman to a debate… right in front of his campaign headquarters. Now how could that possibly go wrong?
Let’s take a quick look at some other North Country news, most of it, as always, bad for Dede:
• Not only has Sarah Palin endorsed Doug Hoffman, but mini-Palin Michele Bachmann has, too. Said Bachmann: “Hoffman is on the ascendancy, and we have to win this seat, and people need to get behind the winning candidate, and it looks like that’s Hoffman.” Not quite as full-throated as Palin’s endorsement, but Bachmann looks to be the first sitting member of Congress to take the plunge.
• Like the New Jersey Restaurant Association’s endorsement of Chris Christie, maybe this is some help Scozzafava would rather not have at this point: several labor and abortion rights groups have chipped in with a few donations. Scozzafava desperately needs to prove her conservative bona fides, and this will help about as much as having the likes of “moderate” Susan Collins campaign for her. Oh wait, she’s doing that, too.
• So, those 48-hour reports I was talking about just below? Well, a lot of big names have shown up for Owens since Oct. 15th, like Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Nydia Velazquez and more. The only GOPer member of Congress who has given to Dede in that timeframe is Greg Walden (OR-02). Believe it or not, Walden just announced he’s that he’s also the first member of Congress to… contract swine flu. I’m not one for omens, but sheesh.
• Some dude endorsed Bill Owens and sent an email to his list.
• You can see Doug Hoffman’s latest ad attacking Scozzafava (by linking her with Owens) here. Reminds me of this ad from last cycle.
• For all the fire Scozzafava’s been under, it’s not exactly clear that Hoffman is any great shakes as a candidate. Check out this description of his meeting with the editorial board of the Watertown Daily Times:
The atmosphere was tense, at times.
Mr. Hoffman said at one point that if we were going to question him, that he needed to know in advance what we were going to ask him about.
That’s not the way it works. Mr. Hoffman would likely find that out if he kept his commitment to the Clifton-Fine Development Corp.’s “meet-the-candidates” night tonight in Wanakena, instead of ditching them for an appearance on Glenn Beck’s television show.
Ouch!
• Remember Scozzafava’s claim from the other day that Weekly Standard reporter John McCormack “screamed” at her? Big surprise – it was bullshit.
• Speaking of conservative publications, a whole bunch of them (including the Weekly Standard and the Washington Times) all published editorials today calling on Scozzafava to drop out of the race. Newt Gingrich for once is making a little sense, defending his endorsement of Scozzafava by saying, “If you seek to be a perfect minority, you’ll remain a minority.” However, Newt being Newt, he’s still wrong, because he apparently thinks he can push back against this madness. No chance.
• And finally, Chris Cillizza claims that “[s]ources on both sides of the partisan aisle suggest that internal polling shows Scozzafava in third place now.” I don’t know if that’s true, but I can tell you that Daily Kos/R2K will have a new poll out tomorrow.
That moment goes in to the annals of the Darwin Awards (Political Category). NEVER do an event where you don’t control the event. NEVER EVER EVER.
is the perfect candidate for a FAIL blog.
And a little OT, I too have swine flu like Walden.
Do we have any sign that Owens is capitalizing on all this? I’m starting to worry that Hoffman might win outright…
Honestly, the only way Owens loses this is if Democratic partisans in the district don’t like him enough to show up and vote. In 2006, a generic dem got 58,000 votes to McHugh’s roughly 100k. Of course, 2006 was a great year for NY Dems, and both Clinton and Spitzer easily won the district. But my guess is that Democrats have enough of a natural base there to beat a divided Republican field.
One other concern is that Scozzafava totally collapses and drops below, say 20% of the vote.
If Owens gets over 50% of the vote then that’s icing on the cake
http://www.dailykos.com/statep…
Owens – 35
Scozza – 30
Hoff – 23
R2K:
Owens 35%
Scozzafava 30%
Hoffman 23%
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
Scozzafava’s not only in second, but still within striking distance of the win? Even after nothing but wall-to-wall abysmal coverage? No wonder Newt Gingrich is still on her side; she looks very much poised to still win over moderate and rank-and-file Republicans.
Doing as much to drive Dems to Owens than Owens is doing himself. The internals of the Research 2000 poll back that up.
I’m not sure if that moved many votes, but if it did than the poll probably overestimates Dede a bit.
The left hand pane in the article includes links to a number of campaign-related articles
http://www.watertowndailytimes…
The skeptical slant by their main reporter on the race, Jude Seymour, is rather amusing – and certainly wouldn’t – ah – pass muster on FoxNews.
I think Watertown is the biggest “metro” area in the district (if 27k can be called metropolitan).