CA-Gov: Rasmussen Sees Brown, Whitman Tie

Rasmussen (11/17, likely voters, 9/24 in parentheses):

Jerry Brown (D): 41 (44)

Meg Whitman (R): 41 (35)

Some other: 3 (3)

Not sure: 14 (18)

Jerry Brown (D): 42 (44)

Tom Campbell (R): 33 (34)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 19 (16)

Jerry Brown (R): 43 (45)

Steve Poizner (R): 32 (32)

Some other: 7 (5)

Not sure: 18 (18)

(MoE: ±5.5%)

This poll’s a little suprising, since it’s the first poll to find a very close race between Democratic AG Jerry Brown and Republican ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (the closest she had come in any previous poll was 6 points, actually an R2K poll from August). It’s also the first poll to find some wide differentiation in general election performance between Whitman and her other two opponents, as Rasmussen finds 9 and 11-point leads for Brown over ex-Rep. Tom Campbell and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. Compare that with September’s Field Poll… or just with the trendlines from the previous Rasmussen poll.

Although Californians are understood to be in a surly mood these days, all the candidates clock in with positive favorables: Brown is at 48/41, Whitman is at 47/27, Campbell is at 40/20, and Poizner is at 36/26. I’m a little surprised at this level of name-rec for the Republicans, considering how little-known they have tended to be in other polls. Another tidbit that points to the effect of Rasmussen’s likely voter screen: Barack Obama has a 55/43 approval — a good number, to be sure, but most pollsters have had Obama in the low-to-mid 60s in California, as it usually tends to be one of his best states for approval ratings (in fact, given California’s size, it’s probably single-handedly responsible for keeping Obama’s nationwide approvals in the mid-50s).

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-Gov

18 thoughts on “CA-Gov: Rasmussen Sees Brown, Whitman Tie”

  1. There is no way this poll is accurate.  I’m calling BS on this poll and Rasmussen all together.

    I live in California and the sentiment here is that both Republicans and Democrats are angry at the incompetence that AHNULD has shown recently when it has come to the budget.  There is no way a republican will win the 2010 Governorship, there is no God damn way.

  2. to start the morning.  Seriously, I call bullshit on the sample.  It also has Arnie’s approval ratings at almost 30%, which is actually higher than what a lot of polls have recently shown – and may explain why everyone has a high approval rating across the board, even the never-elected Whitman.  It’s a bit odd though that only 26% of Californians don’t know or don’t have an opinion of her, which is much lower than Poizner or Campbell (clocking in at 38%), both of whom have been elected to office and have campaigned before – plus, she seems to have suffered no fallout from her “I vote when I feel like it” scandal, which from what I gathered on the ground pissed off a lot of voters.  There’s also no indication on the geographic breakdown either, which would have a huge impact for a state as large as CA.  Something tells me this is an assist to Whitman from Rasmussen, as it gives her a poll to back up her claim that she’s the most able to beat Brown.  Most recent polls have shown that not to be the case, which coincided with a lot of undecided GOPers moving to the Campbell camp.

  3. But that’s because I live in the Bay Area and I’ve been hearing Meg Whitman’s ads on the radio nonstop for the past few days.  Her ads are full of generic ‘Sacramento sucks, let’s cut spending’ stuff that Schwarzenegger used to first become popular, and I haven’t seen any real campaign to let voters know she’s a Republican.  My guess is that they won’t stay tied for very long once Jerry Brown starts campaigning in earnest.

  7. …but Republicans have controlled the California Governorship for all but 5 of the last 28 years.  So can you really dismiss the chances, especially in an unfriendly year and against a well funded opponent, that they’ll get 4 more?

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