Like a head coach whose heavily-favored team craters early in the playoffs, DSCC Chair Bob Menendez has to be feeling pretty vulnerable right now. If Menendez were to get pushed aside from his current role, who could take his place? Whom would you want to take his place? The floor’s all yours.
97 thoughts on “What’s Gonna Happen to Bob Menendez?”
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will be the end of Menendez’s Chairmanship of the DSCC.
That said, I think Sheldon Whitehouse is smart and an excellent spokesman, but he’s a first-termer.
A veteran senator who’s smart and also an excellent advocate is Jay Rockefeller, but he might not want to take on the extra responsibility, given his important committee and subcommittee chairmanships.
Schumer did well because he was good at candidate recruitment, but he also had the best climate for Senate Democrats in 20 years. Menendez is facing a reverse of 2006, with the Republicans poised to pick up 5-6 seats in the Senate if nothing changes.
Let’s face it, if the Republicans, who love to eat their own for breakfast, didn’t can Tom Cole, why would the Democrats, who wouldn’t fire anyone unless the right wing called on them to do so, axe Menendez?
November will determine if Bob Menendez is a Bob Torricelli who as DSCC chair in 2000 helped Democrats pick up 4 seats Or Menendez will become Jon Corzine who as DSCC chair in 2004 oversaw Democrats losing almost every competitive senate race except Colorado and Illinois.
Let Schumer take over until the environment improves, then find someone new.
Don’t want to piss them off.
I guess I never thought about what the DSCC didnt do in this race. The DSCC are battle tested veterans, they probably shouldve saw this coming when she didnt run a single ad until Jan 7th. That’s how we lost this race, and for those whose jobs it was to ensure we won, it was all their big fuck up.
Ugh, who the hell sits on millions of dollars and doesnt bother to run a single ad, ugh ugh ugh! Define your opponent before they get to for christ sake, thats Elections 101!
How in the world is this Bob Menedez’s fault? All Sheldon Whitehouse is good for is sponsoring legislation to regulate how loud commercials can be on your television. He is good at bitching about the U.S. Attorney scandal as well even though all Presidents try to get loyalists in there. I guess I’m just bitter that Chafee didn’t switch to become an independent and caucus with the Dems because Whitehouse is just so useless and not unique in any way.
I guess you could say the DSCC should have seen the problem in Mass, but I don’t see how you put them in the forefront of the blame over Coakley and the Obama White House.
Plus, Menendez has had some recruiting successes, admittedly most of those (Carnahan) occurred early on. But I give him credit for Cal Cunningham in North Carolina (whose profile resembles Scott Brown’s in many respects). That was a later recruit and I think a good one.
But I hope Menendez is burning up the phone lines to Beau Biden right now. From an election standpoint, that’s my number 1 concern as far as fallout from the fiasco in Massachusetts.
Republican House Conference Chairman Mike Pence is now considering a challenge to Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh.
http://twitter.com/chucktodd/s…
PENCE FOR SENATE? POLITICO’s Josh Kraushaar reports that at least one Republican might do more than cheer for Massachusetts: House GOP Conference Chairman Mike Pence is now considering a campaign of his own against Sen. Evan Bayh. The outspoken conservative could effectively clear the Republican primary field and give his party a top-tier opponent for one of the best funded Democratic incumbents. Pence issued a statement on the Massachusetts race, saying the “American people are telling Washington, DC enough is enough. In this special election in Massachusetts they have sent a deafening message to the political class.”
Today, 16:33:12
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To the first question, I don’t know who could take his place. The the second, I would want Chuck Schumer to take his place. According to numerous people, the most dangerous place is between Chuck Schumer and a camera.
I think the head of the DSCC or DCCC needs to be someone like that who is aggressive.
The record for DSCC Chairs is somewhat mixed:
L. Bennett Johnston, 1976-77, No change in seats in 1976
Wendell Ford, 1977-83, Loss of 3 seats in 1978, loss of 12 seats in 1980, No change in 1982
Lloyd Bentsen, 1983-85, Gain of 2 seats in 1984, but lost a special election in 1983
George Mitchell, 1985-87, Gain of 8 seats in 1986
John Kerry, 1987-89, Gain of 1 seat in 1988
John Breaux, 1989-91, Gain of 1 seat in 1990
Charles Robb, 1991-93, No change in seats in 1992, but won a special election in 1991
Bob Graham, 1993-95, Loss of 8 seats and lost a special election in 1993
Bob Kerrey, 1995-99, Loss of 2 seats in 1996, no change of seats in 1998
Robert Torricelli, 1999-2001, Gain of 4 seats in 2000
Patty Murray, 2001-03, Loss of 2 seats in 2002
Jon Corzine, 2003-2005, Loss of 4 seats 2004
Chuck Schumer, 2005-09, Gain of 6 seats in 2006, Gain of 8 seats in 2008
Robert Menendez, 2009-, Lost a special election in 2010
Johnston: 0
Ford: -15
Bentsen: 1
Mitchell: 8
Kerry: 1
Breaux: 1
Robb: 1
Graham: -9
Kerrey: -2
Torricelli: 4
Murray -2
Corzine: -4
Schumer: 14
Menendez: -1
1) Fundraising – On target. Bob Menendez thus far has done a good job raising the necessary cash.
2) Recruitment – Mixed to mediocre. North Carolina is a big glaring missed opportunity. And that we aren’t doing better than Meeks in Florida could drive an otherwise stoic Democrat to tears. But we did get Blumenthal in Connecticut. Though a tough race Jack Conway isn’t bad for Kentucky. Carnahan a good fit for Missouri.
However the jury is still out on how well he’ll do in this regard. Still time to fill in all the blank spots.
3) Strategic spending. Unknown. We have no idea yet how he’ll spend his money and how effectively. The inadequate ads in Massachusetts were worrisome but what can you do what they are paired with an inadequate candidate?
All in all while I’d sleep better at night with Schumer still in control Menendez is doing a good enough job that he deserves to continue into the 2010 cycle.
If Menendez was to be pushed aside (I don’t know enough about Menendez in his current role, so I’m making no judgment) I’d offer the following candidates:
1. Jeff Merkley. He’s young, he is an blue state, and he has solid union support.
2. Sheldon Whitehouse. He’s also young, lives in a union state, is liberal, and is charismatic.
3. Mark Warner. He’s a moderate, but is well respected within Virginia, seems to have great instincts, and could probably help find solid candidates that will appeal to any given electorate.
I would have included Schumer, but I’d rather him replace Harry Reid.
Primarily for not leaving it all to Coakley. My understanding is the internal polling was fine so they left them to it. It looks like the polls moved in the first ten days of the year and by then it was too late to do anything about it because opinions on Brown were set in stone from his very effective and unanswered ads. Basically this was lost in late December.
I don’t like partisan witch hunts whether they are cooked up against Bill Clinton or whether are advanced by Sheldon Whitehouse. I don’t particularly like partisan polities all together. As far as my Democratic credentials I agree with Dems 8 times out of ten. I agree with Obama on the stimulus, bailout and financial regulation.
I disagree with hin on cap and trade and Hillary’s health care plan. He said NO mandate during the campaign. George Miller writes the House bill and we get a mandate.
As far as Bayh and Lincoln I support their re-election. I don’t support Lieberman because he’s a chickenhawk and a free trader in a non-agricultural heavy state. Bayh and other people supported the Iraq War, but they don’t spew the venom that other people do. We have wandered way off base here and I apologize. I just wanted to express my immense dislike for Sheldon Whitehouse and my support for Lincoln Chafee. Give the job to Jon Tester as opposed to a guy like Sheldon Whitehouse if you are going to replace Menendez for no reason.
Steele was supposed to be dead after NY-20 but look what happened. (he also hung on after NY-23, although to be fair that was mitigated by VA and NJ)
Not that I’m an expert on the DSCC or Bob Menendez but there were bigger problems in MA than him. I’d say its 50/50 the Coakley campaign and Pres Obama/national dems. Obviously Martha ran a less than stellar campaign. At the same time the president spent a whole year on 1 issue only to end up with an unpopular bill while unemployment is at 10%. People are hurting economically and the dems better start talking jobs and taking on Wall Street otherwise what happened last night could happen all over the country in November.
His recruiting has been pretty good with Robin Carnahan, Richard Blumenthal and Cal Cunningham jumping in. Thats a big plus.
IIRC he is a big fundraiser which, even though won’t get you wins (i.e. Caokley), but is going to make a difference with a general election.
If anything, I’d hope that Reid and Schumer would get more invovled in 2010 races and make sure that the candidates, whether incumbents or not, know none of the seats on the map are “safe”.
Replacing Menendez is like a struggling baseball team firing its manager: more a sop to disappointed fans to convince them you are committed to correcting mistakes than actually fixing them. Managers don’t field, hit or run bases. A new manager doesn’t do much for the talent of the line-up.
Every now and then a team goes under a run under a new manager but, more often, it just keeps floundering along because the talent level is inadequate.
Besides, a CC chair is more like a GM than a manager or coach. Their task is to recruit candidates and line up resources. The permanent staff (well, the mix changes but since folks tend to rotate between the 3 committees we have a de facto permanent staff for the DNC, DSCC and DCCC) handles the execution.
Outside of Florida, the recruitment seems pretty solid. Even Coakley looked strong. AG. Won statewide before. Base in the west which might limit GOP percentages there. There was nothing in her background which hinted at her performance.
And the failure in Mass was in execution. And the timing of the race limited what could be done.
The thing is, I don’t see how they could have done much during the holidays with paid media (free is another story). You can’t trust holiday polling numbers, so they were flying blind. Negative ad buys are ineffective in the holidays. Viewing is way down and folks tend to react poorly to negative whacks during religious holidays.
Normally you do not want to open relentlessly negative. Usually better to save it for the last two weeks. If you go negative for a whole month, the backlash will move voters against you. But you can get away with it in a state like Mass where Dems have a 3-1 edge. With that kind of natural advantage, you can afford to drive down TO. And driving down TO among Indies by souring them on the race obviously was in Coakley’s interest, even discounting the national climate and just focusing on Patrick and other Mass D’s problems.
So, Brown sailed right through the holiday window, benefiting from a national media environment we did much to create ourselves by failing to ram through HCR in a timely fashion. We gave opponents plenty of time and opportunity to focus on the sausage-making process, which is rarely a pretty sight.
What were they to do? Go negative on Brown with spots bought on It’s a Wonderful Life? Run his Cosmo spread in breaks on Rudolph? Doing so would be just begging for cognitive dissonance to kick in and the effort to define the opponent turn into a backlash against the client.
Yeah, Coakley should not have taken a bloody vacation. Should have worked the malls if she doesn’t like being out in the cold. Turtling allowed Brown to define himself through free media. Should have been out there matching event for event and getting her counter-narrative included in all his coverage. And she should have been remorselessly defining Brown from the night of the primary right up until the 22nd or 23rd, gone positive through New Year’s Eve then started blasting away again with the January 1 bowl games.
Now, when they moved into panic mode and shipped in the pros from Dover to take over messaging in early January, they screwed the pooch. A simple spellcheck on the name of the state would have been nice. Besides, it was too late. By then they were trying to redefine Brown rather than define him, a far more difficult task.
Good consulting is worth no more than maybe three points in a tight race. No more… well, unless you have a kill shot in your oppo. They can’t make the tide; they just surf it.
Coakley was a Biden-level gaffe machine. Her work ethic was lacking. The tide was a against her and the media environment toxic. And she still lost by 5 points which could have been offset with better Boston and Cambridge TO. Or one less late gaffe.
I just don’t see how Menendez is to blame. He didn’t make her screw up or jet off to the tropics in the middle of a campaign. He did not delay ramming though HCR. And he didn’t write the program which failed to catch the Underwear Bomber.
I don’t get Chucky as DSCC chair. We are going to need message discipline and that is not his forte. It would be amusing to watch the Celebrity Death Match between him and Steele since both would trample their grandma to get to a camera, but I don’t see the benefit.
Warner is more intriguing, though, if Menendez falls on his sword. Let his boy Mudcat Saunders tailor some messaging and we might limit the bleeding of rural voters and along the rivers in the Midwest. Even would help in PA, which as Carville described it is Philly and Pittsburgh with Bama in between.
I think there are bigger fish to fry right now. Stop worrying about Menendez and get rid of Harry Reid as majority leader before his incompetent leadership kills our majority. He’s toast in November anyway. Either the Dems can be assertive (and creative) and stop worrying about “bipartisanship” and Lieberman’s pwecious widdle feelings and throw out Reid for Schumer (it’s called rotating your starting pitcher mid-game after he’s cost you several runs), or they can suffer his almost certain defeat in November and let the MSM vultures get another, actually valid “Dems defeated” headline out of it. Losing Kennedy’s seat was bad enough. Reid’s seat is pretty much gone, and Obama’s and Biden’s old seats are at risk as well. If Dems don’t kick their team in the ass right now, they’re going to suffer in a few months, and the country with them.
Why do I have a sinking feeling that we’re going to be told to shut up yet again, and yet somehow blamed when the Beltway idiots in charge inevitably screw it all up, as usual?
It’s not hypocritical when you are trying to create jobs with coal fired power plants like Purdue and Deeds do. Yes, I expect the Democratic Party to be more tolerant than the Republican Party. I’ll take any of the 37 Dems who voted against health care reform any day over Jim DeMint, Mike Pence or any of those teabagging lunatics. Moderation is a principle my friend and just because you like seeing politicians have clear differences and bicker with one another instead of respect viewpoints doesn’t mean I have to sit back and not say anything.
Al Franken. Doubt he’d do that well with political calculations but he’d raise a shit ton. He knows everyone in the DC/Democratic circles and everyone in Hollywood.