Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry is expected to announce his retirement tomorrow morning, according to three sources briefed on the decision. […]
Berry, first elected in 1996, had been noncommittal about his re-election bid for months although, privately, his allies insisted he was planning to run for re-election. […]
The field to replace Berry isn’t yet set although Democrats mentioned include state Rep. Keith Ingram and Jason Willett, a former state party chair. On the Republican side, broadcaster Rick Crawford is in the race.
Yet another open seat for Democrats to defend, and the second one in Arkansas after neighboring Rep. Vic Snyder announced his retirement last week. While Al Gore actually won this district by a 50-48 margin in 2000, the CD, like much of the rest of Arkansas, has taken a redder turn in recent years. John Kerry lost the district by five points in 2004, while McCain beat Obama by a 59-38 margin in 2008.
Nonetheless, this is Arkansas, a state where Democrats have dominated further down the ticket and where they have a pretty deep bench of home-grown candidates. (This explains why the GOP hasn’t been able to come up with a stronger candidate than Crawford at this point.) Candidate recruitment will be pretty key for Democratic hopes here — and even then, expect a tough fight.
UPDATE: The Hotline has some more candidate buzz:
GOPers are not set on Crawford as their nominee. One source pointed to State Rep. Davy Carter (R), businessman/’84 GOV nominee Woody Freeman (R) and businessman Chris Fowler (R) as possible candidates. Ex-AR Farm Bureau chair Stanely Reed (R) lives in the district, but he abandoned a Senate bid after a single week for medical reasons.
AR AG Dustin McDaniel (D) would be an instant front-runner, if he decides to make the race.
RaceTracker Wiki: AR-01
The Republicans will find a much better candidate than Crawford.
Wanna complete the set?
Maybe she will switch races. I am not saying she will win but hey it could save us a Senate seat. Does anyone remember the last sitting Senator to run for the House?
On the one had the Dems have a much better talent poll in this district. On the other hand people who no one knows are beating Lincoln right now. Maybe Arkansas just refuses to vote D at the federal level in 2010. Maybe a current D state legistator will switch to R for this race?
Horrible news. Hopefully this is the end of these retirements.
how many retirements are we up to now?
didn’t Berry say he was staying in previously?
Well, this one’s going to be a very tough hold at R+8 and trending away. I’m on the fence as to whether to call it gone, my instinct tells me that it might be. Maybe if we get a great candidate and they don’t, with Beebe at the top of the ticket, just maybe we hold this one. But I’m not optimistic.
I don’t feel nearly as good about this one as I do neighboring Arkansas-2, especially if either Halter or Clark get in.
That poll probably scared the shit out of him, plus Massachusetts. I usually get these annoying fundraising or campaign emails from him almost every two weeks it seems like, and I have not gotten one for ages now. I would not put it past Hill to take back his word and jump ship. I really hope the buck stops with Berry.
How serious a possibility is it that the state AG will jump in and bail us out here?
The two (Snyder and Berry) that actually did the right thing on healthcare reform are leaving but the two assholes (Ross and Lincoln) are, at this point, still running (and, for Lincoln, going to lose anyways).
As an aside, what are the chances Arkansas is like New Mexico last year: the entire House delegation open to contest a Senate seat that is open. Boozeman has said he’s thinking about running for the Senate. Ross has put himself in no man’s land and has had some ethics problems (anyone know how bad they are?).
Lincoln retires, Beebe runs to succeed her, Halter runs for Governor, Clark runs for Congress, and McDaniel runs for this seat. Also a big rainbow crosses the sky and we get world peace and happiness.
A piece of a New York Times Article leaves NO DOUBT: Boozman is challenging Lincoln.
Representative John Boozman, Republican of Arkansas, said the results in Massachusetts had pushed him toward challenging Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, a vulnerable Democrat. “If the people of Massachusetts are upset, you can imagine how the people of Arkansas feel,” Mr. Boozman said in a telephone interview Sunday night.
At least in my opinion and I think many in Arkansas would agree. Even though Berry’s district is slightly more conservative than Snyder’s, the historical roots are just as strongly democratic or perhaps more so. And unlike in AR-02, the announced Republican here doesn’t have strong name recognition, national ties and a lot of money already raised.
However Arkansas is going to be a disaster for the Democrats. The House delegation is going to switch from 3-1 to 1-3 and of course the Senate seat.
http://twitter.com/jenniferedu…
I’ll hope Duffy is right.
She retired from her swing Oregon seat in 2008 and said, ‘I dont want to be a public servant my whole life. Ive done my work, accomplished what Ive wanted to do and now I just want to go home and spend time with my family. I decided to retire in 2008 rather than a later cycle because this one looks good for the Democrats and I want us to have the best chance at retaining this seat as possible.’
Hooley is a pro while Berry is a chump. Oh terrifying, so you may have to actually campaign and you may actually lose. I think this says a lot more about the type of politician there are, as I categorize them into two groups. Those who seek to be politicians because they simply want to be politicians and be public servants, and then there are those who get involved for the greater cause of having a direct say in their government and representing their values. These are not necessarily independent of one another and I think the example of Hooley vs Berry showcases both of those. Hooley fought harder for her ideals and wanted to see them carried on, Berry wanted to be a politician and is done now that he has to work hard to keep his job.
Lame, weak, chump.
every one of your posts in this thread is spot-on.
If I were a betting man, I would bet that the Senate seat goes R, and the House delegation goes from 3D-1R to 1D-3R or 0D-4R.
Arkansas is doing now, what Oklahoma did years ago. That is evolving from Red at Presidential level and Blue at the House/Senate level, to Red at both levels.
Arkansas is late to the party, but it is doing the same thing every other Deep South state has already done. The Clintons and the Pryors being the primary difference.
Winning a down-ballot state office as a Democrat is not the same as winning a federal office in a GOP wave election.
Southern House seats that have been D since the end of Reconstruction, can, do and WILL FLIP to red. SC-3 is a prior example, and SC-5 will be when Spratt retires or runs out of luck.
Wesley Clark is the ONLY shot for Arkansas to hold either the Senate seat or a house seat (assuming Beebe is out, which is the case). And even that is uphill. Hopefully he runs for Senate, which makes the most sense for him and the party. Even if he does lose, at least it would be competitive and force the GOP to spend some dough.
http://www.arkansasonline.com/…
“One potential candidate suggested he will not pursue the seat. In a statement in which he praised Berry as an outstanding leader and a “valued mentor and inspiration,” Arkansas Attorney General Dustin McDaniel reiterated his intention to seek reelection to his current office.”
Here’s another interesting tidbit. Apparently Obama thinks there won’t be a 1994 because he’s so popular:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
Getting the centrists and Conservative Democrats in tough situations will really help the party. There are not enough liberal districts in the country for there to be a majority without the Blue Dogs and other centrists. There’s this thing in politics called a coalition. It’s a concept that the Republicans have no grasp of, but neither does the White House.
Oh, wait, Obama’s popularity will allow us to keep the majority!