The NRCC got its man in Georgia’s 8th District with Rick Goddard to challenge vulnerable incumbent Democrat Jim Marshall. But does former Representative and 2006 candidate Mac Collins want another crack at the bat? From Roll Call:
Former Rep. Mac Collins (R-Ga.) loaned his campaign committee $130,000 at the end of last month, further fueling speculation that he will run again for the 8th district seat held by Rep. Jim Marshall (D-Ga.).Collins, who lost to Marshall last year by fewer than 2,000 votes, has made clear he is considering running again. However, many observers have believed – or better yet hoped – that ultimately Collins would pass after seeing much of the state and national Republican establishment coalesce behind retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Rick Goddard (R), who already is in the race.
Goddard, on paper at least, appears to be the GOP’s dream candidate in a district that tilts heavily toward Republicans in national elections. Goddard has been recruited to run before, and party leaders were ecstatic when he decided to get in the race this time.
But if Collins were to enter the race, there is little doubt the move would cause a debilitating primary – one that would produce a battered and cash-strapped nominee.
We can only hope!
After Marshall’s narrow win last November, some prognosticators (and I’m thinking of Chuck Todd & John Mercurio of the Hotline in particular) wrote off Marshall’s chances in 2008, saying that if he couldn’t win in a Democratic year like 2006, he’d be doomed in ’08. Aside from the fact that the blue wave seemed to bypass Georgia last year, this analysis does not take into account that Marshall was the target of a mid-decade redistricting scheme that removed and replaced over 40% of his constituency with territory of a redder shade. So Marshall will have had more time to do outreach and build his name in these areas by the time 2008 comes around.
If you look at Marshall’s two previous elections in the third district, he barely won in the Republican wave of 2002, won big in the smaller Republican wave of 2004. Hopefully, the same thing will happen for him in the eight district.
Also, it is widely known that the Democratic wave of 2006 bypassed Georgia. However, I wouldn’t count out the lessening of the Republican hold on Georgia. Bush certainly hasn’t helped things. And conservatives are pissed about our Senators’ support for the immigration compromise, the veto of a tax cut by the Republican governor (which it turns out, could have worked), the failure of a bill to allow employees to have guns in their cars on company property (after the business community got involved), etc.
Not to mention, Georgia gave more money to Democratic presidential candidates than Republicans.
a disservice by saying that. There many factors to his poor showing. The redistricted district was made for a run by Collins.
One, he had to deal with almost two hundred thousand voters who had never voted for him before. He has partially overcome that, he now has better name rec their, and people now who he is. He’s gained incumbancy their, if you will.
Two, Sonny Perdue won in a big landslide, and Republicans easily took the SoS and the Lieutenant Governorship. Coattails affect things.
Three, black turnout was extremely low in 06, even lower than it normally is in. In 2008 black turnout will be higher, and that will definitely help Marshall to the degree of four thousand or votes.
Four, Marshall is also a decorated military veteran, and the most conservative Democrat in the house on military issues, he has credibility in this military heavy district. He’s a good fit for his district.
Five he’s raising a lot more money ths time along, and appears to be on his toes early.
Six, in his last district he had a razer thin race before winning in a landsldie in a year that wasn’t favorable to Demcorats in Georgia. The point is I feel he will do better the second time around.
Seven, Goddard, despite his resume, is not as good a candidate as Collins. He doesn’t have the name rec, or political skills that Collins had gotten from a long career.
Marshall will win unless we nominate Clinton or something and the Republican gets 65% in his district. But with a Democratic ticket that can keep the republcian vote total under 60%, the Presidential coattails in 08, will be nothing worse than Perdue’s coattails in 06, and as you stated earlier, the blue wave bypassed Georgia. From all accounts a red wave swept over Georgia in 06, Georgia which is trending the opposite of most of the country, the Republican control of the state begun in 04, was finished in 06. Marshall will get through, and Barrow will have a much easier time with Burns in, and with black turnout in Augusta and Savanna way up.
I had been under the mistaken impression that Georgia redistricted in 2003, when Texas did. You’re right, they redistricted in 2005, and 2006 was Marshall’s first election in the new lines. I suppose that means he does have a chance in hell of surviving; presidential turnout is going to be brutal in that district, but Marshall does have two years to insinuate himself in the new district that he didn’t have last time. He may not be definitely doomed after all.
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By the way, I take it GA-Sen is going to be uncontested this cycle? Cleland and Barnes and Marshall must have all passed. I don’t think Vernon Jones counts; Shirley Franklin, maybe, but not Vernon Jones.