Field Poll (pdf) (3/9-15, likely voters, 1/5-17 in parentheses):
Tom Campbell (R): 28 (30)
Carly Fiorina (R): 22 (25)
Chuck DeVore (R): 9 (6)
Undecided: 41 (39)
(MoE: ±5.5%)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 43 (48)
Tom Campbell (R): 44 (38)
Undecided: 13 (14)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 45 (50)
Carly Fiorina (R): 44 (35)
Undecided: 11 (15)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 45 (51)
Chuck DeVore (R): 41 (34)
Undecided: 14 (15)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
Shit just got real.
All the action is on the R side and thus interest is focused there. Saw this during the 2004 and 2002 cycles but when GE times comes around…fugghadeboouit! Even then, how many CA statewide polls on federal races have we seen where the Dem always overperformed their final results. Conclusion, Boxer need not take anything for granted but she won’t lose. Period!
Though I’m not sure how appropriate it is.
I’d save it for after several more polls show the same thing.
I first saw this poll; I thought what if she gets scared and retires? However when I actually thought about I didn’t see it being the worst thing ever. If she did retire we have a great base, and honestly someone who is not viewed as polarizing as Boxer could do better (Sorry I love you Babs). Loretta Sanchez would be competitive statewide; she would appeal to Latinos and moderates. I’m not saying that I am rooting for Boxer to retire, but it wouldn’t be horrible if she did. I am by NO means trying to say she isn’t a good Senator, because she’s a GREAT one.
I have to move both this and the gubernatorial race to tossup from leans Dem. But I still think that both Boxer and Brown take it in the end.
The good news is that Boxer is battle tested.
Is that it costs so much to advertise in the state that the GOP sinks a lot of money in order to “turn california red!” and it could divert funds from states they could be spending in where their chances are better.
Remember this state elected Arnold twice. However you’d think after Massachusetts the Dems would go on the air early before their opponents define themselves.
Campbell is a competitive candidate, but as for the rest, let her campaign for, oh, five freaking minutes in September then get back to me.
was announced yesterday and now today we get this Field poll. Probably Boxer’s internal polling was indicating what we just learned with this poll, and the call went out.
Boxer and the DNC will need a lot more dough than typical with all those GOP billionaires running in the top two CA races.
Barbara Boxer is a fighter, so any comparison to Martha Coakley is laughable. She is seasoned, intelligent, and is a hard worker. We will see Boxer win this race, probably in the high single digits, when the dust is settled. I don’t see Boxer’s campaign being complacent.