Research 2000 for the Daily Kos (3/15-17, likely voters, 8/31-9/2/2009 in parens):
Rand Paul (R): 40 (25)
Trey Grayson (R): 28 (40)
Other: 14 (18)
Undecided: 18 (17)Dan Mongiardo (D): 47 (37)
Jack Conway (D): 31 (30)
Other: 8 (15)
Undecided: 14 (18)
(MoE: ±5%)Dan Mongiardo (D): 37 (42)
Rand Paul (R): 46 (37)
Undecided: 17 (21)Dan Mongiardo (D): 38 (41)
Trey Grayson (R): 43 (45)
Undecided: 19 (14)Jack Conway (D): 39 (41)
Rand Paul (R): 45 (37)
Undecided: 16 (22)Jack Conway (D): 36 (40)
Trey Grayson (R): 44 (46)
Undecided: 20 (14)
(MoE: ±4%)
Research 2000 doesn’t have very appealing numbers out of the Kentucky Senate race, where, over the last half a year, Rand Paul seems to have strengthened his position considerably. Very little else has changed — in the Dem primary, Dan Mongiardo leads Jack Conway by about the same a bigger margin, while Mongiardo and Conway both poll about the same as before vis-a-vis Trey Grayson — but Paul has shot into the lead in the GOP primary. And Paul is now overperforming Grayson in relation to the Dems, instead of losing to them, as was the case in September.
Color me a little puzzled; the libertarian-minded Paul just seems to have the wrong profile for Kentucky, an Appalachian-flavored state that’s socially conservative and likes its earmarks. The SurveyUSA poll of a few weeks ago seemed to promise a competitive race in Kentucky, but it was based on a Generic D/R question. The problem seems to be that Paul is by no means a Generic Republican, and Grayson hasn’t seemed to be able to find a way to make a case on just how weird Paul is (while the Dems have been mostly focused on walloping each other). Let’s hope the Dems’ May 18 nominee will fare a little better on that front.
RaceTracker Wiki: KY-Sen
Mongiardo is now CRUSHING Conway — more’s the pity.
it’ll be funny. Either he’ll be constantly feuding with McConnell, or he’ll sit back on the bench and disappoint his rabid followers. think libertarians will ever realize that their philosophy of no government, no earmarks, etc is with a few small exceptions, only followed by those without power?
I’d be liking my chops expecting a dem victory with Paul as the nominee but this is not the year to reject the crazies… this is the year of the disheartened base and ramped up rabid right. Oh well, let’s see what 2016 looks like. Might be a chance for us to have a repeat of history (remember, they are kicking out Bunning this cycle).
I think we can just about take this one off the board folks. We’ve got no chance in the general with Mongiardo as the nominee. Even if Conway were to win it looks like our chances against either Paul or Grayson would be very small.
Not gonna happen.
At least that’s what Politico reported in a piece about this race.
And if you believe the one quote from Rand on what he “really” believes on several things on national security matters, then he really is more mainstream wingnut than his libertarian purist dad. And of course Rand is, like his dad, anti-choice, which often is enough to appease cultural conservatives into accepting him as “one of their own.”
I have a feeling it’s harder to paint Rand as a crazy than it appears on the surface. And I think his clearly growing strength underscores that point.
That said, James L. is right that an opportunity to exploit whatever non-mainstream views Rand doesn’t deny still is there.
But I don’t think Mongiardo is the right guy.
Conway had momentum, how is he now 16 points down?!
If Conway doesn’t win the primary, I don’t think we will get KY unfortunately 🙁