Public Policy Polling (3/20-21, Ohio voters, 6/17-19/2009 in parens)
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 37 (44)
John Kasich (R): 42 (42)
Undecided: 21 (14)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
No matter how you may spin it, under 40% is not where you want to be as an incumbent. Tom Jensen has some more:
Strickland and Kasich both win over most of their party’s voters in the horse race, with the incumbent up 70-10 with Democrats and the challenger holding a 73-10 advantage with Republicans. Kasich’s lead is due to an overwhelming 47-24 lead with independents. Independents are leaning toward the GOP everywhere this year, but the margin in Ohio is particularly wide.
With the country as polarized as it is right now it seems pretty safe to say that there won’t be a lot of Democrats or Republicans crossing party lines in their votes for Governor this year. That means the race will come down to the independents. Right now they dislike Strickland and don’t really know Kasich. For the Governor to get reelected he will have to get those voters to change their minds about him – or convince them that they dislike Kasich even more. It’s going to be a difficult fight for reelection.
Racetracker Wiki: OH-Gov
Economy? Political environment? Or all of the above?
Our New Jersey campaign in 2009 was like that. And you know how that ended up.
n/t
I hope Ted starts attacking soon he could be losing the chance to define Kasich.
I really cannot believe that Ted Strickland is faring this poorly against John Kasich. Strickland has done good things as governor. He’s pursued programs that have helped certain areas of the state transition from old-school manufacturing to more modern industries such as healthcare, education, and technical fields. The cities in the state as a whole are still struggling but some of them are starting to come back, most notably Cleveland, Akron, and Cincinnati, as the state has upped its funding commitments to these areas.
He isn’t a social liberal by any stretch, but Strickland has always had a populist economic streak that has really benefitted him, especially in southeastern and northwestern Ohio. Those areas went huge for him in the 2006 gubernatorial election in addition to the cities.
Really, I think there’s only one explanation for why Strickland is losing, and it’s because the voters quite simply are blaming him for the bad economy. I’m also noticing a disturbing trend in northeastern Ohio, where a lot of the unions and industrial workers are hanging in the past, hoping beyond hope that their old manufacturing jobs will return. Strickland is getting a lot of heat for not making that happen, especially in the Mahoning Valley. Hey knuckleheads! Those jobs ain’t coming back! And John Kasich sure as hell ain’t going to try to make those jobs come back, if anything he’ll see that more of them are shipped overseas because he’s a free trader just like Rob freaking Portman!!
I’m sorry, but the electorate in my home state can be really anal and bass-ackward when they don’t get exactly what they want.
If there’s going to be an improvement in D fortunes, it’ll be defined by races like this.
If the economy has hit bottom, voter attitudes will be a bit of a lagging indicator.
If the Rs are going to shoot themselves in the foot w/r/t HCR opposition and Is, it’ll show up in races like this.
But patience is difficult. As another poster suggests, Strickland better start defining Kasich (the insider).