Public Policy Polling (4/17-18, New Hampshire voters, no trendlines) (primary numbers):
Paul Hodes (D): 40
Kelly Ayotte (R): 47
Undecided: 13Paul Hodes (D): 41
Bill Binnie (R): 46
Undecided: 13Paul Hodes (D): 43
Jim Bender (R): 40
Undecided: 18Paul Hodes (D): 43
Ovide Lamontagne (R): 38
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±2.6%)Kelly Ayotte (R): 43
Bill Binnie (R): 19
Jim Bender (R): 11
Ovide Lamontagne (R): 5
Tom Alciere (R): 1
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±3.9%)
This is PPP’s first poll of New Hampshire since Judd Gregg retired; they find what most non-Rasmussen pollsters have been finding for the last half a year, which is a high-single-digits lead for ex-AG Kelly Ayotte over Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes. PPP thinks that Barack Obama may be dragging the Dems down in this race, but Obama’s approval in New Hampshire is a tolerable 47/48, pretty consistent with national averages and with New Hampshire’s position near the nation’s midpoint. Instead, some of the problem seems to be with Hodes himself, who’s in deeper negative territory, with 32/39 favorables. (The law-and-order, no-controversial-positions Ayotte fares beter at 34/24.)
They also take a rare look at the state of the GOP primary. R2K had a look at the primary from February, finding a much closer race between Ayotte and conservative insurgent Ovide Lamontagne, which Ayotte was winning 36-27. However, that’s gotten scrambled by the two random rich guys in the race, Bill Binnie and Jim Bender, spending money to introduce themselves, while Lamontagne has continued to languish in obscurity. Lamontagne seems to have been a receptacle for all anti-Ayotte votes, and they’re migrating elsewhere thanks to money (despite the fact that Binnie is pretty moderate and seems to be running to Ayotte’s left); as far as teabagger challenges go, Lamontagne seems to be headed in the Chuck DeVore/Patrick Hughes direction rather than that of Marco Rubio or Rand Paul.
But the general tilt of independents nationally away from all Democrats. And in New Hampshire in particular that is lethal. Their favorables are quite similar really.
Paul Hodes hasn’t started campaigning yet.
I don’t think this is how a Republican gets elected in a blue state.
Her issues page is just a bunch of vapid Republican talking points, without a single original thought. She expects us to be against Hodes because, oh no, he spent 4 years working in Washington.
Unless she has a lot of good will from being the attorney general, I can’t imagine her winning.
Hodes hasn’t really started his campaign yet, so the fact that he’s down by single digits doesn’t really surprise me. Ayotte probably has the advantage in the fact that she had recently served as the AG of NH and is not currently a member of Congress.
Contrary to opinions held by others, I think Obama helps Hodes out more than he will hinder him. NH is probably the most conservative New England state, but based on the past 5 years, being a NH Democrat supporting a Democratic President shouldn’t be a barrier for Hodes. If Hodes tried to distance himself from Obama, he would probably upset his base which in turn wouldn’t show up at the polls.
Is there reason to believe there will be a sizable number of ticket splitters in NH-1? (Votes for both Shea-Porter and Ayotte). If not, then if Shea-Porter gets reelected then Hodes also wins NH-1. If Hodes wins NH-1 then he should certainly win statewide.