Public Policy Polling (4/23-25, Arizona voters, 9/18-21/2009 in parens):
Terry Goddard (D): 47 (46)
Jan Brewer (R-inc): 44 (36)
Undecided: 10 (17)Terry Goddard (D): 47 (45)
Dean Martin (R): 36 (37)
Undecided: 9 (18)Terry Goddard (D): 47
Joe Arpaio (R): 44
Undecided: 9Terry Goddard (D): 45
Buz Mills (R): 37
Undecided: 18Terry Goddard (D): 46
John Munger (R): 31
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±3.4%)
Overall, this is a pretty nice set of numbers for state AG Terry Goddard, especially compared to Rasmussen’s latest portrayal of the race, which had Goddard trailing the likes of Dean Martin by 13 points. Still, the poll is evidence that Jan Brewer is showing some significant signs of life, consolidating support from her party and from independents. From Jensen:
Partisan preferences have hardened in the wake of Brewer’s signing a tough immigration bill last week. Where Brewer was getting only 59% of the Republican vote in our last poll, she’s now at 73%. But Goddard has seen a similar improvement in his own party, improving from 77% of the Democratic vote to 88%. The main reason for the overall tightening is that where Brewer trailed Goddard by 12 points with independents previously, that’s now just a 2 point deficit.
And where Brewer trailed Goddard among white voters by 2 points last September, she now leads by 8. It’s the state’s Hispanic voters that are keeping Goddard ahead: their support of Goddard jumped from 53-33 to 71-25, which represents a huge improvement over Barack Obama’s 56-41 win among Hispanic voters in Arizona.
Before Brewer’s immigration play, she was considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents to a primary loss, but I’d be very curious to see where she’s standing today.
My suspicion is by making herself the face of toughness on illegal immigration, Brewer will fend off Arpaio for the GOP primary and pull off a modest win over Martin. That would leave this a race between a mildly-unpopular, polarizing incumbent and a mildly-popular guy who’s stuck at 47% in the polls. If Brewer can make the general a referendum upon the bill (which apparently has 70% approval in Arizona, no?), she can probably pull it off. If not, and if Goddard can paint her as an ineffective incumbent, it’s his to lose.
And PPP Arizona. In other words different states.
I wonder if/hope this will energize hispanics across the country. It would be great if Bill White in TX and Alexi Sink in FL can get some mileage out of this.
Lord, I can’t take anymore of this. Now they’re going after women.
http://wonkroom.thinkprogress….
on another site about the internals of this Rasmussen poll:
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
Support/Oppose
Overall: 70/23
White: 73/20
Black: 50/50
Hispanic: 63/36
So, according to Rasmussen, almost 2 out of 3 Hispanics support the draconian immigration law ….
it really makes you think why anyone still takes Rasmussen seriously …
Arpaio, who isn’t going to run for Governor, should be polling far better against Goddard than any other Republican does, based on polls I’ve seen of past races. It’s very strange that he’s not doing any better than Brewer is.
Can we just say it? That those Arizona independents that moved to Brewer are largely racist?
It was amazing to me to read the comments on Dkos saying how she would be toast if she signed the bill. I think many on the left don’t get the politics of immigration just as much as some on the right. The voters just want immigration laws to be enforced. Many moderates/indies are anti illegal immigrant not anti immigrant or anti hispanic. Border states like Arizona have a huge illegal immigrant problem. So Brewer is benefiting by seeming to get tough on the issue.