The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is re-evaluating whether to continue to spend money in this month’s Hawaii special election, Chairman Chris Van Hollen told POLITICO Thursday. […]
Asked if the committee would continue to spend money in the 1st District special election, Van Hollen responded: “We’ll have to re-evaluate based on the situation. The Democrats haven’t been able to come together and resolve this issue. Right now, it’s extremely difficult. So right now, we’ll have to re-evaluate that.” […]
“I think you’ve got a very difficult situation. In that special election you’ve got three candidates – two of them Democrats,” said Van Hollen. “It’s very clear they’re splitting the vote. We’ve worked very hard to get that resolved, and unfortunately the Hawaii Democratic Party has not been able to sort that out. So that is what it is. All I can say about that is – regardless of what happens – right now, it’s extremely challenging, given the lineup. So it would be a different situation in November, obviously.”
It sounds like the DCCC is ready to kick the can on this race all the way to November, more or less letting the chips fall where they may for the special election on May 22nd. That’s a pretty huge development for a party that hasn’t lost one of their own seats in a special election in nearly a decade, but these are obviously exceptional circumstances.
Meanwhile, Independent Women’s Voice, a conservative 501 (c)(4) organization with ties to Lynne Cheney, is spending $200,000 on attack ads against Democrat Ed Case during the home stretch.
Obama is willing to campaign and raise money for that turncoat opportunist Arlen Specter but won’t left a finger here while he could probably push one of the two over the finish line. LAME.
Wonder if this is a fake out by Van Hollen to scare the Hawaii Dems or if it is a CYA for him if internal polls show this is a lost cause.
Many folks have said the special doesn’t matter and the seat will just revert to the Democrats in the fall. Many are comparing Djou-HI to Cao-LA. This is a big mistake. First off the mileage that the GOP will try to gain from a Hawaii win will rival Brownmania in MA. Also this Hawaii district is not like Cao’s New Orleans based district. On first blush both look like solid DEM districts with 70% plus Obama margins. Cao is a dead man walking and his district is and has always been (at least since Reconstruction). But the 2008 Obama margin in Hawaii is more of an anomaly. Bush had a decent showing here in 2004 and Abercrombie had some close calls holding this seat in the 90’s. The seat was held by Repub Patricia Saiki from 86-90. If Djou wins and comes off as a moderate and faces a wounded DEM nominee in the fall then this seat is no sure thing.
It’s like worrying over Cao. Nobody in the rest of the world cares except for wonks.
PA-12?
The recent polls we’ve seen make that seat look more promising.
There is no other person to blame for the fact that apparently 60-70% of this district would rather vote for a economically conservative anti-government “moderate” than for a proud progressive Democrat who is backed by the state’s main Dem leaders. Case has certainly done a good job of fooling voters into thinking he would be a good Democrat, but the fact is more of his voters would probably go to Djou than to Hanabusa were Case to drop out. That is astonishing, the fact that Djou would almost certainly break 50% in this low-turnout special election if it was just Djou vs. Hanabusa.
Were Hanabusa to drop out, yeah her supporters would go to Case, and Case would win easily. But that doesn’t mean that’s what we want. I mailed in my ballot for Hanabusa already, there is no way I am voting for Case again. Hawaii deserves better.
My hope was that Hanabusa would win the Democratic primary in September but if she gets clobbered in this special election Case might run away with the primary too.
This isn’t likely to end good for us in any fashion…the only thing I could think of is Djou somehow holding the seat through the November elections and getting washed away by a better Democrat in 2012 when Obama is back on the ballot.
I dont care at all about whether the GOP gets to gloat about “winning the district in Obama’s home state”. Hey, at least they’d be admitting he was born in Hawaii! Seriously though, whether a party gets to gloat about something, or whether the pundits get to get all hot and bothered over something is not truly relevant. A victory is a victory, a loss is a loss, but Djou winning here isn’t going to magically make Republicans pick up other seats around the country they wouldn’t have before. Thinking long-term, we don’t want Case in this seat. Djou won’t survive a challenge from a Democrat who can actually run a competent campaign, and has the backing of local Dem leaders (that’s one thing everyone is neglecting to mention when they say Hanabusa should drop out…all the progressive advocacy groups are going to sit on their hands if Case is the nominee).
We’ll get this seat back later, and with a better nominee. Let the GOP gloat. Who cares.