PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Photo Finish for Sestak and Specter

Quinnipiac (5/12-16, likely voters, 5/5-10 in parens):

Joe Sestak (D): 42 (42)

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 41 (44)

Undecided: 16 (14)

Dan Onorato (D): 39 (38)

Anthony Williams (D): 11 (10)

Jack Wagner (D): 10 (11)

Joe Hoeffel (D): 9 (9)

Undecided: 31 (32)

^{(MoE: ±3.2%)}

Quinnipiac gets in what looks like the last word in the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate primary, and their last poll is their first poll to have Joe Sestak leading Arlen Specter (which puts them in line with almost every other poll from the last week). You know what I’d kill for, though? Some regional breakdowns in the crosstabs. Quinnipiac and R2K have both put those up in their general election samples, but in the Dem primary, bupkus… meaning we’re going into Tuesday night with very little sense of what baselines are needed in different corners of the states. The Specter/Sestak matchup doesn’t seem to break down along conventional left/right dichotomies, or even along the class and education-based Obama/Clinton divisions that we saw in the 2008 primary.

Muhlenberg College for Allentown Morning Call (pdf) (5/12-15, likely voters, 5/11-14 in parentheses):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 44 (44)

Joe Sestak (D): 44 (43)

Undecided: 11 (12)

Dan Onorato (D): 39 (38)

Anthony Williams (D): 15 (14)

Jack Wagner (D): 10 (11)

Joe Hoeffel (D): 9 (10)

Undecided: 26 (26)

^{(MoE: ±5%)}

Although we mentioned it in this morning’s digest, for good measure, here’s the final Muhlenberg tracker. You don’t get any closer than this: Specter and Sestak are tied, after Specter having pulled slightly ahead over the weekend. Somehow I think the incumbent rule (which has taken a beating in the last decade… just ask President Kerry) may hold true in this particular race, with Sestak likely to get the majority of the undecideds. (Also, Dan Onorato is looking pretty much like a lock in the governor’s primary. Wondering who the heck he is? Josh Goodman has a good profile.)

I’m not the only person suspecting that, as reports are everywhere today that the White House is bracing for a Specter loss, and that they’ve passed on giving Specter any more aid over the closing few days out of fear of squandering political capital. The local political establishment is also starting to walk back their tales of doom associated with Sestak winning (silly in the first place, seeing how he’s polling better than Specter in the general); Ed Rendell, for instance, said that, contrary to state party chair T.J. Rooney’s contentions, a Sestak win wouldn’t be “cataclysmic.”

Weather forecasts for Pennsylvania tomorrow predict rain. You may have your own theories about what, if anything, that means, but Taegan Goddard sees it as a plus for Joe Sestak, as rain is likely to dampen turnout and move it more toward only the more enthusastic voters.