OH-16: A Whole New Ball Game

(Tim is already thinking ahead. Just like all of us ought to be. – promoted by DavidNYC)

Why not start looking ahead to 2008?

Most observers had long assumed the 2006-2008 Congress would be the end of thirty-four year incumbent Ralph Regula’s (OH-16) career in office.  After getting passed over in his bid for Appropriations Chair, rumors swirled the aging (soon to be ex) Cardinal’s final goal was to bequeath his seat to his son, Richard Regula.

Richard, however, was up for re-election as Stark County Commissioner and if the congressman retired and Richard lost … well, Richard would be out of a job.

So the template was supposedly set:

Ralph would get re-elected
Richard would get re-elected
Richard would run for his father’s office and if he lost, would continue serving as County Commissioner.

The first piece of the puzzle happened.  For the third time out of four cycles, Ralph’s opponent failed to raise the $5,000 minimum to disclose financially with the FEC and he was unsurprisingly re-elected by a comfortable margin (59-41).

Richard, however, was not so lucky.  He was dealt an upset defeat by Todd Bosley (of Bosley Bobblehead fame) in an extremely competitive election that, despite hope, shocked many right up until the final, unofficial, margin was announced (50.5% to 49.5%).

If the script played out, many a Democrat and Republican were lining up behind the scenes hoping to take a stab at the open seat in a district that went for President Bush with 54.1% of the vote.

Republican State Senator Kirk Schuring survived his re-election bid by a 56-44 margin.  Moderate Republican Scott Oelslager proved his popularity with another drubbing of a Democratic sacrificial lamb 64% to 36%.  These were the two competitiors Richard Regula was likely to square off against in a primary.

On the Democratic side, Stark County Democratic Chair and Dem. County Chair of the Year, Johnnie Maier has waited patiently for the seat to open up.  Extremely popular State Representative Jamey Healy laid waste to his Republican challenger with 75 percent of the vote. 

Before the first ballot was cast on November 7, potential candidates jockeyed for position. There was some speculation that Ralph would retire mid-term, hoping a shortened campaign would give his son an added boost based on name recognition and his unique ability among the field to raise tons of cash on short notice. 

But now Richard lost, and it’s a whole new ball game. 

So what happens next?

It’s unclear how things will shake out.  The conventional wisdom is that Ralph might just hold onto his seat until re-districting comes along and then hang it up.  One thing is clear, however: This is one district Democrats need to field a strong candidate in for presidential purposes.  Stark County, the 16th’s largest, has long been considered a bellwether for the state’s electoral college votes.  In 2004, Jeff Seemann had a bit of money, but little ground game to help push John Kerry along in ignored parts of the district like Ashland and Wayne Counties.

With Democrats making tremendous progress in the state, others think the aging Regula doesn’t have a tough campaign in him and will fold if pushed  In fact, back in the middle of 2005 the DCCC was running polls in the district and talking with candidates about potentially taking on Ralph himself.  Finally, if the fifty-state strategy has taught us anything, we need to run candidate everywhere.

I love this district, it’s so compelling to me and will one day be a legitimate pick-up opportunity for Democrats.  One way or another, it also might be one of our best shots to increase the majority in the next cycle when most pundits will place a premium on defense of the seats we gained on Tuesday.