NV-Sen: Big Reid Lead; SSP Moves to Tossup

Mason-Dixon for Las Vegas Review-Journal (7/12-14, likely voters, 6/1-3 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 44 (41)

Sharron Angle (R): 37 (44)

Other: 4 (3)

None of these: 5 (4)

Undecided: 10 (8)

(MoE: 4%)

I’d thought the Patriot Majority poll from a few days ago (that gave Harry Reid a 4-point lead) was a little optimistic, but along comes Mason-Dixon (on behalf of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, which Jon Ralston has described as “an anti-Harry Reid PAC”) with an even bigger lead in their first poll since the resolution of the GOP primary.

As in Kentucky, this looks like a race where the most conservative primary option got insufficient pre-primary scrutiny in the media, and then got hammered with it afterwards. Add in a big disparity in the effectiveness of advertising and general messaging right now — Reid touting his ability to save jobs for Nevada, and Angle, um, criticizing Reid for saving jobs while saying that job creation’s not a Senator’s job — and there’s a definite shift in momentum here. No doubt someone will point out that the incumbent is still way below 50%, but I have a feeling Harry Reid is OK with that… because this is going to be an election where “None of these” scores extremely well.

Worth noting: nobody but Rasmussen has seen an Angle lead since the GOP primary wrapped up. Here’s the state of the race in graphic form, courtesy of Pollster.com:

We’d had a pretty clear sense that this race was headed back to “Tossup” (from “Lean Republican”) as soon as Sharron Angle won the primary, but with today’s poll we can’t justify holding back any longer.

56 thoughts on “NV-Sen: Big Reid Lead; SSP Moves to Tossup”

  1. has the highest unemployment in the nation, that is the only reason I think Angle has any shot whatsoever. The Republicans really blew it, this was there hottest prospect and they fuck it up. Amazing, Reid is amazing, getting Lowden out of the primary like he did was genius. This is somewhat similar to Virginia in 1994, it was probably the Republicans top target for defeat but Robb was able to overcome polling deficits similar to Reid’s because of an inferior Republican. Can anyone think of a sitting Senator who has been able to have Reid like polling but turn it around. I have not been able to come up with any besides Robb. Ideas?  

  2. Reid is clearly ahead now, Angle is steadily tanking, and there’s no sign of that changing.  I think it’s going to be extremely difficult for Angle to turn it around, she’s lost all control of her public image before even having started to try to define herself.

    Throw in the fact that Reid has run a spectacular campaign already and has all the resources to do whatever he needs and wants the rest of the way, and I think it’s tough to see an Angle victory.

    I really think not only will Reid win this in November, but it deserves a “lean D” already.

  3. as he is at this sort of campaigning (and nobody should overlook the major role he played in getting Angle as an opponent), he’d be the second coming of Mike Mansfield. (and I’m not a Reid-hater as Majority Leader by any means)

    At this point, the Senate math for me is looking like this:  the Democrats start out with a deficit of four:

    North Dakota

    Arkansas

    Delaware

    Indiana

    While there are a bunch of other seats being defended that will require some resources, at this point I see Colorado, Nevada, etc. as holds.  Illinois is probably the biggest wildcard among those.

    So beyond that, we need to find four seats.  Starting out with:

    +1 Charlie Crist as Independent

    So three more; Kentucky, Ohio, and Missouri being the best prospects.

  4. I think that is why they released this pro Reid poll on a Friday and the Friday when the Governor of WV makes an appointment to boot. I think they knew the results would favor Reid and did not want a huge story made of it.

     

  6. I still can’t fathom Reid hitting the 50% mark, but there’s definitely a better-than-50/50 shot he can win this thing with around 45-47%.

  7. …but this is what I’ve been waiting for.

    Thank goodness Republican primary voters didn’t have the good sense to vote for Tarkanian.

  8. races I’d rather see come back from the dead than Reid’s. But it’s hard to be choosy in this political climate.  

  9. New Rasmussen poll has Castle leading Coons by just 47-36. In April, it was 55-32.

    Delaware has been rated Solid Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings but on the basis of this survey shifts to Leans Republican

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

    Considering this is a Rasmussen poll, Coons is really in single digits now.

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