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I’ve been holding off on July U.S. Senate projections for weeks now, waiting for something race-altering to give me some incentive in doing them. Alas, with just over a week left to go, it doesn’t appear that my June projection, a 52-48 hold for Senate Democrats, will change. In fact, none of my rankings have switched whatsoever, and, thus, for now, I have practically no reason to focus upon the U.S. Senate field.
So, for the first time this year, I’m opting to veer away from that zaniness, into the comparable insanity that is the gubernatorial field. (I don’t have the time, patience, or energy to do a U.S. House projection, but my suspicion is the GOP will narrowly win it back.)
Frankly, I didn’t know what to quite expect in tacking the gubernatorial races. I’ve been following a few quite intently – California, New York, and Ohio in particular – but, in a number of these races, I wasn’t even sure of the candidates running. Little did I know just how few incumbents are running for re-election in this cycle, not to mention the vast number of candidates, in some cases nearly a half dozen serious contenders, in a few of the yet-to-be-determined primaries.
In mulling over each of this cycle’s gubernatorial races, I often found myself both shocked and disappointed.
Democrats aren’t in for a gentle thumping in this gubernatorial field. They’re poised for a violent thrashing.
At the moment, Democrats preside over 26 gubernatorial seats, with Republicans holding 23, and Charlie Crist holding down #50 in his new role as Independent. The best news for Democrats in this cycle is, perhaps unlike in the U.S. Senate races, they’re undoubtedly poised to flip a number of states from red to blue – among them, Hawaii, Connecticut, and Florida. For the time being, I also suspect they’ll triumph in Minnesota.
That’s about the most positive note I can give Dems. Otherwise, the 2010 gubernatorial field looks to be a living hell.
In my full list of projections below, you’ll notice that about twice as many candidates are in Safe/Likely/Lean GOP tiers than candidates in the same Democratic tiers. There’s also a whole boatload of toss-up races, and I expect, unless the environment greatly improves for Democrats, the GOP should have a strong leg-up among them, perhaps even ultimately sweeping them.
I’m sure many of my projections will elicit both curiosity and downright befuddlement, so feel free to challenge my rankings. I’d be more than happy to run-down some of these races with greater explanation. And, knowing me, I may have made an error in calculation. Perhaps my math is incorrect and the Democrats aren’t down miserably!
Dem – 20
GOP – 29
Indie – 1
Safe Dem (>20% victory):
Arkansas – Gov. Mike Beebe > State Sen. Jim Keet
New York – Attorney General Andrew Cuomo > businessman Carl Paladino or fmr. Rep. Rick Lazio
Likely Dem (10-20% victory):
Connecticut – businessman Ned Lamont or fmr. Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy > Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele or fmr. U.S. Ambassador Tom Foley
Hawaii – Rep. Neil Abercrombie or Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann > Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona
New Hampshire – Gov. John Lynch > businessman Jack Kimball, fmr. HHS Commissioner John Stephen, or activist Karen Testerman
Lean Dem (5-10% victory):
Colorado – Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper > fmr. Rep. Scott McInnis or businessman Dan Maes
Florida – State CFO Alex Sink > Attorney General Bill McCollum or businessman Rick Scott
Massachusetts – Gov. Deval Patrick > businessman Charles Baker (R) or State Treasurer Tim Cahill (I)
Maryland – Gov. Martin O’Malley > fmr. Gov. Bob Elrlich
Toss-up:
California – fmr. eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) > Attorney General Jerry Brown
Georgia – fmr. Rep. Nathan Deal or fmr. Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) > fmr. Gov. Roy Barnes (D)
Illinois – State Sen. Bill Brady (R) > Gov. Pat Quinn (D)
Maine – Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) > State Sen. President Libby Mitchell (D)
Minnesota – fmr. Sen. Mark Dayton, fmr. House Minority Leader Matt Entenze, or House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kellhier (D) > State Rep. Tom Emmer (R)
Michigan – Sheriff Mike Bouchard, Attorney General Mike Cox, Rep. Pete Hoekstra, or businessman Rick Snyder (R) > Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero or House Speaker Andy Dillon (D)
New Mexico – D.A. Susana Martinez (R) > Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D)
Ohio – fmr. Rep. John Kasich (R) > Gov. Ted Strickland (D)
Oregon – fmr. Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) > fmr. NBA player Chris Dudley (R)
Rhode Island – fmr. Sen. Lincoln Chafee (I) > State Treasurer Frank Caprio (D) or fmr. State Rep. Victor Moffitt (R)
Texas – Gov. Rick Perry (R) > fmr. Houston Mayor Bill White (D)
Wisconsin – fmr. Rep. Mark Neumann or Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) > Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D)
Lean GOP (5-10% victory):
Pennsylvania – Attorney General Tom Corbett > Alleghany County Executive Dan Onorato
Vermont – Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie > State Sen. Susan Bartlett, fmr. State Sen. Matt Dunne, Secretary of State Deb Markowitz, fmr. Lt. Gov. Doug Racine, or Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Shumlin
Likely GOP (10-20% victory):
Alabama – State Rep. Robert Bentley > Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks
Arizona – Gov. Jan Brewer > Attorney General Terry Goddard
Iowa – fmr. Gov. Terry Branstad > Gov. Chet Culver
Nevada – fmr. federal judge Brian Sandoval > Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid
Oklahoma – Rep. Mary Fallin > Lt. Gov. Jari Askins or Attorney General Drew Edmondson
South Carolina – State Rep. Nikki Haley > State Sen. Vincent Sheheen
Safe GOP (>20% victory):
Alaska – Gov. Sean Parnell > fmr. House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz or State Sen. Hollis French
Idaho – Gov. Butch Otter > activist Keith Allred
Kansas – Sen. Sam Brownback > State Sen. Tom Holland
Nebraska – Gov. Dave Heineman > ?
South Dakota – Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard > Senate Minority Leader Scott Heidiprem
Tennessee – Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, or Rep. Zach Wamp > businessman Mike McWheter
Utah – Gov. Gary Herbert > Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon
Wyoming – fmr. U.S. Attorney Matt Mead, state auditor Rita Meyer, fmr. Rep. Ron Micheli, or House Speaker Colin Simpson > state party chair Leslie Petersen
Oregon, New Mexico, and Maine.
They are toss ups, no way around that, but I am still just frustrated that they are not in our court with our good nominees in these blue states and the GOP’s poor (except Martinez) nominees.
At least none of these 3 are critical in redistricting.
I mostly agree with you on them except I have just a few quibbles. I think Minnesota should be Lean Democrat because I have seen a good amount of poll numbers showing the Democrats doing well against Emmer. I think Vermont should at least be a Toss Up because it is a heavily Democratic state and although it is a Republican year, I think any Democrat in a state like Vermont should make it really close if the Republican is not the incumbent Governor (which he is not.)
Good rankings overall though.
Both Handel and Deal are former holders of the offices you list. Both resigned to run full time (and in Deal’s case, avoid an Ethics Commission investigation).
These are some really, really dire picks. I haven’t done any gubernatorial picks, but here are some gut feelings.
Maine and Oregon, I really don’t think are tossups, especially the latter. So far I’ve seen one poll (actually one Rassmussen poll) showing the R’s in the lead and people are taking them as gospel. Dumb. If there’s any other public polling of either race in the last month I’m not aware of it.
Ohio, California, and Illinois, I really don’t think are going to go red, especially Ohio. Kasich is running a terrible campaign to this point, and Strickland is a solid campaigner. Brady is simply too conservative for IL, I have a feeling there’s going to be a lot of last-second nose-holding votes for Quinn in that race no matter how unpopular he may be.
Vermont and Arizona – I think these two races are underrated, there’s no reason why Goddard-Brewer shouldn’t be Lean R at worst. He was leading big prior to the immigration law passing, and I don’t feel as though it’s passage assures victory for Brewer. Any republican will struggle in Vermont because of the humongous partisan lean there.
Minnesota – I haven’t seen any non-Rass polls showing Emmer with a lead, and Dayton in particular has had at least a mid-single digit lead almost every time. That one should be Lean D.
HI-Gov: Mufi Hannemann, the mayor of Honolulu, is also running on the Democratic side but trails Abercrombie so far.
CO-Gov: Scott McInnis, not John.
RI-Gov: Victor Moffitt is a former State Rep, not a sitting one, and he faces primary competition from John Robitaille.
UT-Gov: Peter Corroon is the mayor of Salt Lake County, not city.
Although I am not sure if Maine is a tossup or not. The only polling we have seen is Rasmussen and while they show a nice nine point lead I doubt whether they are accurate. I would love to see PPP or someone poll is ASAP. They could also poll Pingree and the all important 2012 election. From everything I have heard from my cousin who lives there is that the Republican nominee is a tea bagger with practically no serious prior political experience who is not qualified to even be Governor. The only thing that gives him a shot I think is how unpopular the incumbent Governor is, but even so the state leans Democratic and honestly I think the majority of people have not made their minds up yet as they do not know who is running. Also Green Party will not nominate anyone so that will likely give Mitchell some votes. So basically I do not think this is a tossup until I see a non Rasmussen poll telling me so.
I think Dillon would have a strong chance against most of the Republicans in Michigan. Some of the unions might not be happy, but he would get a lot of swing voters especially against the unsavory Cox.
Based on recent polling, I’d put Beebe as a high likely D and Lynch as a high lean D.
CO is up in the air depending on what McInnis does and/or who the GOP replaces him with, but Hickenlooper’s chances are looking better and better.
I think Florida is going to become Scott country. I’d call it Lean R at this point.
I’d still give Brown a slight edge in CA, but agree that it could be a tossup by election day if he doesn’t fricking start campaigning soon.
MN is Lean D. I don’t care who the DFL nominee is, Emmer is such a horrible candidate that even the inevitable MIP spoilers probably won’t be enough to stop this one flipping.
RI should be Lean I, not tossup, especially now that Lynch is out of the race and Chaffee has the teachers’ union endorsement.
I wouldn’t call OR a tossup yet, but it’s getting pretty damn close, and if those stupid hippies in Eugene don’t stop whining about how Bradbury was the greener candidate and turn out for Kitzhaber, Oregon will have Governor Dudley come November. Ugh.
VT as Lean R is entirely appropriate. See my above comment.
As far as I’m concerned, New Mexico is gone.
I’d take a pounding in gubernatorial elections over a pounding in the Senate any day.
I’d say that it’s looking more and more like it’s likely or safe D considering what Tancredo did today. He issued a statement that gave McInnis and Maes until Monday (July 26) to issue statements that they would both drop out of the primary no matter who wins or he is running on the American Constitution Party. There’s no way that McInnis drops out, so this is looking like Hickenlooper (a great candidate anyway) is going to win by quite a lot with the Republicans split between 2 candidates.