• CO-Sen: So since the last time we checked in, Ken Buck royally stepped in it not just once, but twice. First, he made the argument that voters should opt for him and not Jane Norton because “he doesn’t wear high heels.” (It was by way of arguing that, instead, he wears cowboy boots with actual bullshit on them, but the gender card was pretty clear. And Norton’s response was easy to write, and was on the air almost instantaneously. It probably played at least something of a role in today’s decision by Arizona governor Jan Brewer, amassing her own clutch of Mama Rattlesnakes, to extend an endorsement to Norton.) Then second, it came out over the weekend that on June 11, Buck was overheard referring to Tea Partiers (or at least the birthers among them) as “dumbasses.” (Compounding the unforced nature of the error was that he was joking around with his Democratic tracker while saying it!) Buck was out with the inevitable apology to the teabaggers within the day. (Y’know, for a bunch of self-styled tough guys, they sure do get their feelings hurt easily.)
• CT-Sen: Despite his blowing through a large chunk of his remaining cash on hand in a baffling ad urging people to vote in the Republican primary (although not specifically for him), Rob Simmons is still maintaining that he’s not currently a candidate for the Senate. He considers his $350K ad buy as something like “public service announcements.”
• FL-Sen: Must be nice to have Jeff Greene’s money! Concerned observers are a bit troubled by the close correlation between his hiring of DNC member Jon Ausman as a consultant, and his next-day endorsement of Greene’s campaign. Greene has spent $6 million of his own money on the race so far, which apparently is a drop in the bucket for him, as he’s been content to ignore a $1.87 million fine from the government of Belize that’s outstanding against him, after he crashed his 145-foot yacht into a sensitive coral reef there.
• IL-Sen: Continuing the boat-crashing theme, in case you’ve been living under a rock all weekend, the big news in Illinois is that Mark Kirk has gotten caught in yet another series of misrememberments, this time about his sailboat accident and subsequent Coast Guard rescue that supposedly got him devoted to public service. Turns out he at least got the being in a sailboat accident part right, but, unlike his own description of the events, he was rescued long before nightfall, he probably didn’t swim for a mile because he was within half a mile of shore, and his core temperature certainly wasn’t 82 because he would have lost consciousness long before getting to that point. Sensing a pattern here?
• KY-Sen: Rand Paul is re-affirming that he supports Mitch McConnell. Well, sort of. During his Fancy Farm appearance this weekend, he said he’s going to vote for McConnell for leader, but almost immediately afterwards, reduced that to not seeing a reason why he wouldn’t vote for him. Observers also noted that, in his earlier sorta-support for McConnell, he was implicitly dissing Sharron Angle as unlikely to win, by way of saying that Jack Conway’s first action would be to vote for Harry Reid for majority leader (something that, of course, wouldn’t happen if Reid weren’t to get re-elected).
• NV-Sen: Sharron Angle’s media policy can be summed up in one word: RUN! That’s what she did when faced with questions from a six-months-pregnant reporter last week, who, in typical lamestream media fashion, insisted on asking some further questions after a three-minute speech of boilerplate on the estate tax. How presumptuous! Harry Reid got further good news, too, with the endorsement of Las Vegas mayor and relentless self-promoter Oscar Goodman, who called Reid “the man we go to get things done in the city.” If there’s one Nevadan having an even worse time than Angle, though, it’s John Ensign; his one-time crony Tom Coburn just hung him out to dry, handing over e-mails from Ensign in the ongoing criminal investigation by the DOJ into l’affaire Hampton.
• WV-Sen: With filing closed in West Virginia, there are eleven GOPers fighting in the primary for the right to oppose Joe Manchin in the Senate special election. Most prominent, of course, is businessman John Raese, who lost the 2006 Senate race to Robert Byrd and is also something of an archenemy to the Moore/Capito family. The only other noteworthy GOPer is Mac Warner, who already lost the WV-01 primary this year (and whose brother, Monty Warner, was the 2004 GOP gubernatorial nominee, losing badly to Manchin). Raese punctuated his entry with some ill-advised and outdated ethnic humor, comparing the Italian-American Manchin to Tony Soprano. The NRSC, probably not liking any of its options here (and having gotten burned by some of its earlier interventions), says it isn’t getting involved in the primary.
• CO-Gov: The rumor du jour last week was that the RGA was prepared to pull out of Colorado entirely — and that was before this morning’s confirmation that Tom Tancredo was going to jump into the race as an indie candidate in order to either leverage the GOP nomination or crash-land the whole operation. The RGA denied the rumors when they first came out, but the local GOPers working on the race are suddenly leaking e-mails that they’re broke. And with Tancredo‘s bid today, suddenly his allies and core backers among the Tea Partiers are suddenly denouncing him, accusing him of being a likely spoiler, whether intentional or not. Bafflingly, Tancredo pushed back in the way most likely to rub them the wrong way, calling the teabaggers new members of the “establishment.” Tancredo’s getting some pushback from state party chair Dick Wadhams, too; TPM has audio of the literal screaming match between the two of them.
• FL-Gov: You may remember state Sen. Paula Dockery, who was running a futile campaign against Bill McCollum in the GOP gubernatorial primary until dropping out after getting totally eclipsed by Rick Scott. Well, now she’s teaming up with Scott; she’s stopping somewhere short of endorsing him, but is joining him on his bus tour, saying she share similar stances on the issues. (She can’t be angling for a Lt. Gov. slot, as Florida elects its LG separately, so what her angle is, I don’t know. UPDATE: Actually, commenters have corrected me on Florida’s LG procedure, wherein the nominees pick running mates, so, yes, it does sound like she’s angling for LG.) Also, while it isn’t exactly about the horse race, here’s a fascinating (at least to me) piece of backstory about Democratic candidate Alex Sink. Her slightly Asian appearance is because she’s 1/8th Thai, and her great-grandfather was a well-known celebrity in the early 1800s: circus performer Chang Bunker, one-half of the original so-called “Siamese Twins.”
• GA-Gov: Dueling (banjo) endorsements in the Georgia GOP gubernatorial runoff, and they seem to fit the overall media narratives about the two candidates. The suburbanized Karen Handel got Mitt Romney’s endorsement, while the more hickory-smoked Nathan Deal got the backing of the NRA.
• OK-Gov (pdf): There’s one more poll of the primaries in Oklahoma (to be decided tomorrow night), from the Republican firm of Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates, apparently on their own and not on anyone else’s behalf. The results are pretty similar to this weekend’s Sooner Poll: they see AG Drew Edmondson beating Lt. Gov. Jari Askins 38-27 on the Dem side, and Rep. Mary Fallin well ahead of state Sen. Randy Brogdon 50-22 on the GOP side. Askins did get one late-breaking endorsement, though, that’s good as gold in this football-mad state: she got the backing of former OU and Dallas Cowboys head coach Barry Switzer. Switzer’s backing is credited with helping Brad Henry win a come-from-behind victory in the 2002 Dem gubernatorial primary.
• OH-St. House: Here’s something you don’t see every day: a local article about a competitive state legislative chamber where you don’t get just platitudes about the closeness, but actual detail about the most competitive races. Democrats currently control the state House 53-46 after picking it up in 2008, and it could revert back to the GOP this year. The Democratic seats on defense that they list are scattered among Columbus, Cincinnati, and Cleveland suburbs, and Appalachian-flavored rural areas like Portsmouth and Zanesville.
• OR-Init: Oregon stands out as the only west coast state that doesn’t have an independent redistricting commission for state legislative seats. It looks like that’s going to continue: a proposed initiative to create an independent commission of retired judges for redistricting didn’t qualify for the ballot, after too many signatures turned out to be invalid. 2002 GOP governor candidate and bringer-of-the-crazy Kevin Mannix was the leader of the move, although he actually had some big money interests behind him this time (like Nike’s Phil Knight).
• Rasmussen:
• AZ-Sen (R): John McCain (R-inc) 54%, J.D. Hayworth (R) 34%
• ND-Sen: Tracy Potter (D) 22%, John Hoeven (R) 69%
that John McCain’s 10 million dollar spending spree has given him a strong lead.
As for GA-GOV, I think the NRA is far, far more valuable than Mitt Romney’s. Have Eric Johnson and John Oxendine made endorsements yet? What about Sonny Perdue? Casey Cagle? I think Nathan Deal has the chance to become the establishment candidate.
Paula Dockery might be angling for this job as Lt. Gov’s candidates are chosen by the Gubernatorial candidates, not voters or state parties.
is a pretty funny name. Not as cool as, say, Gunner DeLay, but I like it.
Rand Paul made his “I’ll vote for McConnell. Probably. Maybe” statement somewhere, but it wasn’t at the Fancy Farm picnic, as that’s coming up in a couple of weeks. This is the biggest political event of the year in Kentucky, and often produces headlines. This is where Jim Bunning said he’d never return to because he and his wife were physically abused and he had “little green doctors pounding on my back,” and last year where Jack Conway called himself “one tough son-of-a-bitch.” So who knows what Rand Paul will say — I’m assuming he’s going to attend. But it really is a great event, and a very interactive, at times heckling crowd politicians have to address.
Interesting. Dem lead pretty much holding up according to Gallup.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/141…
Obviously Rasmussen has the GOP leading by ten points.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
All in all I think the evidence continues to point to a small Republican advantage with likely voters.
to never talk about the military again. She seems to get herself in trouble whenever she’s talking about it.
I’m starting to think that all this dirt on Kirk must be coming from a concerted effort by the Giannoulias campaign. I mean, it’s not like Kirk hasn’t been in a competitive election before that would have drawn media attention. Do we have a young Harry Reid on our hands with Alexi?
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.co…
O’Malley 45
Ehrlick 42
Obama approval: 51%
They didn’t even bother polling the congressional races, something they said they’d do in NH if they had enough respondents. They didn’t even ask it. 🙁
I think somebody mentioned before that Chang Bunker was actually of Chinese descent but lived in Thailand.
Is 450 people over the recommended # too much? Someone in the open thread said they didn’t think so. I wanna get some more opinions though.
http://www.google.com/hostedne…
I’m guessing they were scared Whitman would buy it all up before they could.
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj…
J.D. Hayworth may be this year’s biggest letdown. There was so much hype that he’d take down McCain, but now McCain is crushing him. Maybe because the TV scam scandal shot Hayworth down. If only that scandal had broken after Hayworth won the primary, to doom him in the general.
Similarly, I’m unhappy that Buck’s gaffes are happening now, before the CO-Sen primary. It would’ve been great if Buck had won the primary and then the gaffes kill him. I’m afraid now that Norton will win, and she’ll be a strong candidate in the general.
Jon Barela (R) – 51%
Martin Heinrich (D) – 45%
http://www.kob.com/article/sto…
Rassy is trying hard to dial down Patrick’s numbers, now having him winning the 3-way over Baker and Cahill 38-32-17.
And yet, Rasmussen has Patrick at 51-48 favorability and even right-side-up job approval at 50-49!
The poll understates Patrick’s non-white support, with only 57% of black voters supporting the state’s first black Governor, and 21%(!) supporting Baker. And “other” minorities supposedly are 36-33 for Baker. White voters are virtually the same as the topline, with Patrick holding a 38-33 edge over Baker.
Really, Patrick is well-positioned for victory. It will be a tough slog, but if he’s favorables and job approvals really are orbiting 50, he wins a 3-way comfortably. And that will be amazing considering he looked dead in the water for so long until Cahill jumped in.
While she has used this immigration law to rally herself in the primary, if she loses the general, it will be entirely because of the polarization of the Latino electorate going hard for Goddard. While it looks like we’re going to take some hits on the federal level, I am very excited for many gubernatorial contests in 2010.
I just made a district that only has 1 less person than the recommended number! I know, I need a life!
I will flesh this out in a diary when we get into August but for what it might be worth to anybody I have just worked out a prediction model and it churned out the following for November…
SENATE – GOP +6
GOVERNORS – GOP +6
HOUSE – GOP +30
Massive caveat being I expect big movement in individual races but IMO that is the situation we are currently looking at if election day were tomorrow.