Quarterly fundraising reports are not enough for me. I want to know how much a candidate is raising on a monthly basis. Now that ActBlue commands a dominant share of Democratic fundraising, it is now possible to predict how much a candidate is raising before they file a quarterly report. Here is my favorite Senate candidate, Joe Sestak, as an example.
Quarter # ActBlue Overall Report %ActBlue
4, 2009 $242,000 $650,000 37.2
1, 2010 $200,000 $442,000 45.2
2, 2010 $665,000 $1,950,000 34.1
July 2010 $469,000 TBD TBD
Joe Sestak uses ActBlue on his campaign website to take online donations. As a result, the % of money raised via ActBlue is surprisingly stable across quarters. From this pattern, I can deduce that Sestak has raised $1.1-1.4 million in July (OK, and the first 2 days of August). To take it further, I expect Sestak will raise $3-4 million this quarter. Past performance is not a perfect predictor of the future, but the ActBlue info gives me evidence enough that Sestak is still a strong fundraiser. Sestak will need all that money if he is going to beat Pat Toomey the Club for Growth.
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… August is traditionally the deadest month of the year for fundraising in general.