Research & Polling Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal (8/23-27, no trend lines):
Diane Denish (D): 39
Susana Martinez (R): 45
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±3%)
Woof. Martinez wins a fifth of Democrats (including a quarter of Hispanic Democrats), 38% of independents (vs. 32% for Denish), and edges Denish among women by 42-41.
While Lt. Gov. Diane Denish looked like a solid player for the Democratic bench in New Mexico, Martinez’s cross-over appeal, Democratic disengagement, and the lingering baggage of Bill Richardson’s unpopularity are making this race a much tougher prospect for Democrats than was conceived a year ago.
Note: It’s unclear from the Journal’s article if this poll was of likely or registered voters. For Denish’s sake, let’s hope they were using an LV model…
New Mexico is one of those states where they alternate governors from either party every 8 years.
Shame, but this is one you can pretty much blame on Richardson. If he’d quit when he lost the Dem nomination, maybe Denish would have had some time to build up some street cred but in this environment, that may not even save her (see Joe Kernan in Indiana).
However, I think the effect will be localized and Martinez’s expected win shouldn’t hurt the Dem’s run for Congress (though I think Teague may go down regardless).
Shame. But a lot of this is sometimes luck and timing, both of which do not favor Denish.
Are Albuquerque and Santa Fe populous enough that Democrats can win statewide races on the strength of a city-Indian reservation coalition? Or do they need the rural Hispanic voters to turn out strong for Denish as well?
Though I now call VA home I grew up in Susanna Martinez’s hometown.
1. She is the favorite right now. Her weakness can be if she is taken down by her endorsement of Palin but that is weak as Richardson is dragging Denish down really hard. I think that Martinez is going to win this one.
2. Harry Teague is a one-term Congressman. He is not going to beat Steve Pearce who was the Rep there from 2002-2008 until he was crushed by Tom Udall in the Senate.
3. NM goes this way. Santa Fe is very liberal and is a stong Democratic stronghold. Albuquerque is fairly in the middle but swings a little Liberal but not too much. The conservative areas are the counties that border Texas with cities like Roswell, Hobbs, Artesia and Carlsbad. Here is where GOP nominees statewide rack up huge margins that as long as Albuquerque isn’t more then a 10 point deficit they can win.
4. Martinez if she wins will be prodded to eventually take on Jeff Bingamn (who could retire in 2012) or Tom Udall (who would crush her badly) in 2014.
Given that there are no redistricting battles likely to come out of this, it is not a huge loss that losing Ohio/PA would be for that respect.
For one thing, they’re just starting to define Martinez, and that will help.
I’m cautious about results like this.
is that the same sample supposedly shows Heinrich and Teague leading. It’s all too likely that there is ticket splitting, which is dangerous if Denish’s favorables aren’t good. Still, the state seems to have a traditionally Democratic lean, so to say that either candidate has a lock on this race is remarkably premature.