Public Policy Polling (9/14-16, likely voters, 7/23-25 in parentheses):
Jerry Brown (D): 47 (46)
Meg Whitman (R): 42 (40)
Undecided: 12 (14)
(MoE: ±3.8%)
$118 million can certainly get you heard (well past the saturation point, apparently), but it can’t erase the fundamental truth that California is a very blue state. As seen in PPP’s Senate poll released yesterday, there isn’t as much enthusiasm gap at work in California as in other states, leaving us with a likely voter sample that went for Obama by a 58-36 margin in 2008. While Whitman’s massive self-funded budget and her vaguely moderate appeal keep her competitive, the final story may simply be that there just aren’t enough Republicans (and persuable indies) to push her over the top.
People are feeling pretty ‘meh’ about Jerry Brown, with 41/43 favorables, but Whitman winds up in much worse shape at 30/50. While PPP doesn’t specifically ask whether Whitman’s ads have made people more or less likely to vote for her, they do find that people, by a 52-33 margin, think there should be a legal limit on how much a person can donate to his or her own campaign (gee, you think they’re thinking of Meg Whitman and her nonstop ads when they answer this question?). Before anybody starts to do a premature victory dance, though, bear in mind that more pollsters than not, in the last month, have given Whitman a lead (Although you know who we haven’t heard from lately? The Field Poll.). Given that this poll clocks in with a pretty optimistic 46% composition of self-described Dems, we’re looking at a neck-and-neck race here between wise tortoise and fabulously wealthy hare.
PPP has been really good this cycle, so despite what seems to be high Dem turnout numbers, I’m inclined to believe Brown is ahead – at least by a little bit. But Brown has yet to get over 50 in any poll – something Whitman has managed a time or two. My money is still on her, but not by much. It’s really just a coin toss. I hope she’s spending $ on more than ads and is building a fantastic GOTV operation.
A Fox News poll today showed the race tied at 45-45, so there isn’t much disparity between the two polls, so Brown seems to be getting some momentum here. Brown just went on the air with ads that flat out call Whitman untruthful, that’s going to help his position a lot.
I’m glad she’s throwing all that money into the economy.
to spend $118 million, and lose the election?
I was reading this post there was a Meg Whitman web ad to the left of my screen. (Ya its that bad.)
I seriously expected to come into these comments and see a Nelson HA-HA! lol Yeah, if she has spent this much money and is losing/tied/barely leading, she’s screwed. No one I talk to seems to appreciate that though. Could be that I’m in law school, and everyone is conservative, but still.
n/t
and he needs to keep doing so, because that is one massive hand grenade where nobody wants to get on the wrong side of things.
Cooley may ride the scandal into the AG office, but for every other candidate, they have a tough road to navigate and zero people are sympathetic to the Bell crooks, but the more complex issue of public employee pensions is not so easy an issue to be coherent and popular on.
—- For those who don’t knowm the Bell scandal… city manager of a 40,000 city bordering LA was the highest paid city manager in the US, with salary and benefit package of $1,500,000 including 100+ vacation days. This made his retirement pension about $700,000 a year for the rest of his life. Other city employees and council members similary were ripping off the city and taxpayers, and two other neighboring small cities have similar outrageous salary corruption. It’s hard to overstate how disgusted people are with not just that this happened, but they got away with it for years, and the pension system is set up to reward such actions. —