SSP Daily Digest: 10/28 (Morning Edition)

Yer gonna have to click the links….

AR-Sen: 54-35 Boozman

CO-Gov: 43-42 Bennet

FL-Gov: 47-45 Scott

GA-08: 47-44 Marshall

HI-Gov: 50-45 Abercrombie

HI-01: 50-45 Hanabusa

IN-02: 48-43 Donnelly

IN-03: 57-33 Stutzman

KY-03: 50-46 Yarmuth

LA-Sen: 50-38 Vitter

MI-07: 50-43 Schauer

MN-01: 50-41 Walz

ND-AL: 51-42 Berg

NH-01: 53-37 Guinta

NY-Sen-B: 57-34 Gillibrand

NY-Gov: 55-35

NY-19 (PDF): 47-46 Hall

NY-24 (PDF): 48-43 Arcuri

OH-Sen: 52-37 Portman

OH-Gov: 49-44 Kasich

OK-Gov: 56-38 Fallin

OR-Gov: 46-43 Dudley

OR-Gov (PDF): 49-45 Kitzhaber

PA-Sen: 43-36 Toomey

PA-Gov: 47-32 Corbett

RI-Gov: 35-28-25 Lincoln-Robitaille-Caprio

WA-03: 50-46 Herrera

WA-09: 49-46 Smith

Margins & Errors: A Barela internal with only toplines in NM-01… Toomey +5 and Corbett +14 in the Mule tracker… Another big blast of polls (PDF) from CNN/Time (CA, CO, KY, NV, PA)… this fucking Sean Bielat memo (nice scan!) doesn’t even give actual toplines… An internal for Republican Bill Marcy in MS-02 asks a weirdly axe-grindy question about taxation before getting to the toplines

407 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/28 (Morning Edition)”

  8. “Nearly 22K vote in Clark County on Wed. Biggest advantage yet for Democrats — 1,800 votes. GOP %age edge inches up.”

    And today and tomorrow, all of the mobile EV units will be in friendlier areas.  Yesterday, a few were still in GOP areas.

  11. No state has more house seats up for grabs, particularly in the eastern half.  Plus that senate seat.

    On Thursday, Sestak plans several retail events in Philadelphia, where he’ll be joined later by President Clinton for three rallies. The Clinton events are all designed to turn out young voters on college campuses. Sestak and Clinton will appear together at Bryn Mawr College, Cheyney University and Temple University.

    This weekend, President Obama will also head to Temple University, where he’s appeared several times in the last two months.

    http://realclearpolitics.blogs…

  13. They’re touting the RV portion of that CNN poll and a DSCC internal giving the attorney general a two-point lead, and also saying their internals show “a dead heat within the margin of error.”

    My guess is the Democrats are seeing themselves slightly behind in Kentucky with an outside chance at pipping Paul at the finish line, but the bulk of their resources looks to be in Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington, California, Illinois, and West Virginia.

  14. This is the vote excluding yesterday’s numbers because the updated party breakdown including yesterday hasn’t been released yet. But I’ll update this post when it is released.

    From Oct. 16-26, 2010, the total numbers were:

    44,845 (43%)   Democrats

    42,359 (40.6%) Republicans

    17,038 (16.3%) neither

    Compared to the end of all early voting in 2006:

    42,586 (43.1%) Republicans

    41,189 (41.6%) Democrats

    15,132 (15.3%) neither

    Interesting stuff. Early voting this year already surpassed what it was during the entire early voting period of 2006. Percentage wise, Democrats are doing better now than Republicans were doing in 2006. And there are more “neither party” people this year, both gross total and percentage wise.

  16. This guy is really a crummy candidate.  I expect a Kirk win here.  If you’re going to pull this stuff, you better make sure it can’t be traced back to you.  Rank amateur and overall an unlikable candidate.  The GOP taking Obama’s seat will be a huge trophy.  

    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo…

    Hoffman was the much better option out of the primary.  Dems teabagged themselves by choosing Alexi.  

  20. an email from Hill. I bolded the useful info were he claims his internals match poll released yesterday and he claims to be leading with early voters, not a surprise really. This could go either way but I think the ball is in Hill’s court. Funny because Hill is a former basketball star.

    Here we are: five days away from the election.  Your inboxes are probably chock full of e-mails from candidates and their supporters across this country asking you to contribute, volunteer and vote.

    For the past month, you’ve heard from my good friend Birch Bayh, from my three daughters, and most recently from my wife Betty.  Their messages to you have received an overwhelming response toward my goal of raising $25,000 in 25 days.  Your generosity not only with your funds, but also with your time and support means more to me than I can tell you right now.

    This election has been a long fight. We’ve battled and fought for tough issues in Congress, and with your support all the way through it, we’re five days from what everyone is saying will be a very tough election.

    Don’t get down. I’m not. My own polling shows I’m ahead in a tight race, and just yesterday, an independent poll confirmed that information.  Our get-out-the-vote program is on track for success, and we’re ahead with those voters who have already voted in this election by voting “early”.

    We have momentum, and that means that races up and down the ballot here in Southern Indiana will have momentum.  But we need your help one last time as we finish things out for Tuesday.

    Can you go online now and contribute whatever you can to help us get there?

    Any amount will make a difference as we look to stay on the airwaves, take care of our volunteers on Election Day and keep fighting right up until 6 p.m. on November 2.

    We’ve come a long way, friends.  I believe we’re going to get over the finish line with a victory in just five days, and I hope you do, too.  Victory is essential to keeping our country – and our economy – moving in the right direction – and not backward toward the party of “no”.

    Thank you for everything you have done for me, and thank you for your help in these final days.

    Sincerely,

  21. but Drudge is trumpeting “Bush Book Revealed” as his headline in big red letters.

    Hard to measure the repercussions of this… but it can’t possibly be good for the GOP to have Bush’s face out there a few days prior to the election. It’s incomprehensible to me why Bush wouldn’t just wait until the first week in December to release his book. Just stupid.

  23. A civitas pollthat shows ellmers ahead of etheridge may be coming soon: http://www.nationalreview.com/…

    If so, it could be a rough night for kissell and mcintyre too. Any word on NC early voting?  I read somewhere that it was good for the GOP, but the spin-reality ratio on the early stuff is just too high for me to put too much stock in it.

    If it pans out (tbd), I’d hire her team over Grayson or Conway’s if I ever find myself considering running a controversial, “hail Mary” ad…  

  24. Where he compared robopolling vs live person polling and why robopolling favors GOP. He looked at this in Colorado, but one could easily see why it would play out elsewhere.  

    Given the enthusiasm gap, Republicans and Teabaggers would be willing to sit through a robopoll, whereas less enthused folks might just hang up.  However with a live person polling, folks are less likely to hang up on a person on the other end.

    Basically enthused voters will allow themselves to be polled, but less-enthused though still going to vote folks might not want the bother.  

    It is easier to hang up on robocalling.  When I get telemarketing calls I hang up on robocalls instantly, however give the live caller time to give their spiel before saying I’m not interested.    

  29. what races tell you this is either going to be a terrible night for the dems or just a kinda bad one?

    apocalypse for the dems: ME-01 ME-02.  both seats are democratic, with reps who fit the district well and polls have shown them ahead.  if they lose, it will probably be a bloodbath for the dems.

    just kinda bad(keep the house good perhaps) NH-01 NH-02.  NH goes whatever way the winds tell them, if they buck the republican trends for both kuster and shea porter, the republican revolution 2 electric boogaloo is probably overestimated.    

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