Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
Post-Election Open Thread
As Ali G might say… Democracy: What does you think?
398 thoughts on “Post-Election Open Thread”
but hats off to him for pulling that out (with a little help from his friends in the Tea Party).
If you’d told me ten months ago that Bennet and Reid would be reelected and Feingold would lose, I would never have believed you.
I’m assuming much of America will be thinking that very soon.
Mollohan should run next year.
I’m sorry Kravotil lost, although that was probably inevitable.
It looks like Republicans only won 6 seats in the state house and might actually LOSE two in the state senate.
I was especially happy to read that Alex Mooney might lose, since along with Don Dwyer and that woman who made a fool of herself until Ehrlich got her an appointment outside of the state legislature (I can’t remember her name — didn’t she berate kids and their parents on some day there was testimony about a gay rights bill), don’t do a lot to help my opinion of MD Republicans.
I’ve been listening to a lot of commentary on both the radio and television, and one point everyone circles back to is how unpopular Nancy Pelosi was, and how supporting her cost a lot of Democrats their seats.
You guys think that’s true? I have my doubts, but I’m also hard pressed to come up with other reasons why Dems who voted against the entire Republican agenda (Walt Minnick? Bobby Bright?) lost.
Of course, a lot of the blue dogs said they wouldn’t support her a second time around either.
Tomorrow, we rebuild Section Six!
For what it’s worth, the Republicans can credit their general victory to a bunch of forced toxic memes, and also REPEATEDLY encouraging people to think very short-term and neglect things. Oversimplifying things like economic policy, and presenting them in very convenient soundbites to entice uninformed voters.
I strongly advise Democratic Party strategists to figure out how to beat them at this game.
a completely horrible night. At least not in the Senate anyway. MO was VERY brutal no getting around it. As much hype as that race got, Indiana ended up closer. GREAT about Colorado, Nevada and probably(fingers crossed) Washington. Also we picked up governors in VT, CT, CA, HI, RI and it looks like Pat freaking Quinn will win. The house is obviously a different story, but it could have been worse and think of it this way, a lot of one term wonders got elected and a lot of OMG did they win? D members held on last night. Bill Owens was a GREAT win. Who thought we would lose all those other NY CD’s but Owens would hang on? What will they do with his CD? Will they make it safe or work to get Murphy back into Congress?
I ordered a Brad Ellsworth bumper sticker like 4 or 5 months ago and it never came. I even sent a couple of emails and got no reply. It was in my mailbox today.
I’ve never seen her as much of a Presidential contender anyway, but I have to wonder if everything is downhill from here in regards to her political career. She’s tied to the Tea Party, but many of those she supported, like Karen Handel, either didn’t make it out of the primary, or went on to lose the general election. The feud with Lisa Murkwoski was very personal and if Lisa somehow manages to win, then that would make Palin look even worse.
Sweet baby Jesus, I think she pulled it out! Which means the Prop 8 case, even if something weird like a retrial happens, is still looking good. Maybe I’ll actually be able to get married before my mother has an anuerysm from the lack of grandbabies.
Did any moderate Republicans got elected this cycle?
It looks like Democrats lost 5 seats in the AZ State House and 3 seats in the State Senate (incidentally, all Hispanics Dems who were defeated by White Repubs). This includes State Senator and Democratic rising star Rebecca Rios, who lost her Pinal County district by 8 points to Steve “whodat?” Smith. We did end up holding on to Harry Mitchell’s old State Senate seat (which I didn’t think we would do if Mitchell lost by double digits); State Rep. David Schapira beat back Wendy Rogers 50-45. That’s still closer than it should have been given that Obama won the district by 14 points, but at least Schapira has experience with a close race in case he wants to run against Scweikert sometime…
Anyway, Republicans should have a 40-20 advantage in the State House and a 21-9 advantage in the State Senate. Pretty much nowhere to go but up at this point, but it’s going to be an ugly two years.
anyone explain what the hell happened in Missouri last night. It’s like most of the Democrats didn’t bother to vote or something.
Texas
– 3 US House (Chet Edwards, Ciro Rodriguez, Ortiz)
– 0 State Senate (thank god for the gerrymander)
– 22 State House (no rural dems left, they’re all gone, same with suburbans. Few Whites left int he caucus)
– 1 state board of education (OW!!!!)
Lost everything in Harris and Galveston county up for re-election.
White underperformed Obama by 2%
Good
Dallas county sweep is complete, got EVERY county wide and got commissioner court seat up, so we now have 22 on that court to draw the precinct lines of Dallas county.
-Dems are 1 over in the house and 2 over int he state senate of 1/3, so the GOP can’t go stupid.
but Dianne Feinstein said at a Boxer rally last week:
Water is where it’s at. We’re the largest agricultural industry in America, and it needs water; and high tech, and it needs water; and 38 million people, and they need water,” Feinstein said. “So in two years there will be a water bond on the ballot. That bond must be passed. And I will be running then, I intend to get out and support it.
Hi Everyone, I am new member, this is my first comment. I am an Italian student who is somehow infatuated with American Politics (maybe because ours is sooo bad that I can hardly follow it?) and lives 3 months a year in the U.S. (Florida, Texas and Arkansas).
As every other time I watched closely the returns yesterday night, especially those concerning the Senate as you folks were updating me on the house gains/losses.
At school I studied the possible outcome of the future elections for the U.S. Senate (2010 and 2012) for a project. Gotta say that we didn’t get all predictions correct for what regards 2010 but anyway. What do you think about 2012? how many incumbent will be at danger? how many will retire?
I think the GOP will easily gain a majority in the Senate in 2012. Do you agree with this prediction?
This is my personal table of the races, I’d love to know your opinions as they might be useful to update my chart HEHE (the table reports also possible GOP candidates for the posts)
SAFE DEMOCRAT: Rhode Island, New Mexico, Vermont (Indipendent), Hawaii (unless Akaka retires, and Lingle runs, in that case would be Lean Republican), California (I don’t see any viable candidate for the GOP, do you?), New York (same as California).
SAFE REPUBLICAN: Wyoming, Utah, Mississippi, Indiana, Maine (just if Snowe runs, otherwise toss-up)
LIKELY DEMOCRAT: Maryland (I believe only Susan Schwab could beat Cardin), Delaware (unless Mike Castle runs, in that case would be Lean Republican), New Jersey, West Virginia (unless Moore Capito runs, in that case Lean Democrat), Wisconsin (if Kohl retires and Ryan or Thompson run for the GOP could be Toss Up)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN: Arizona, Tennessee (will Hank Williams ever run?), Texas
TOSS UP: Missouri (I believe GOP would win with Peter Kinder or one of its Reps, not convinced about Jim Talent running again), Massachussetts, North Dakota (much depends on Sen. Conrad, if he retires it becomes Likely Republican. Possible candidates? Jack Dalrymple or Ed Schafer), Connecticut (Joe Lieberman will steal Dem votes, if he retires and Jodi Rell runs it might as well be Lean Republican), Florida (could be the most interesting race of the year, a battle of giants Nelson vs Bush. Other possible GOP candidates (weaker ones) could be Bill McCollum, Adam Putnam, Jeff Kottkamp).
TOSS UP/TILT REPUBLICAN: Montana (Denny Rehberg?), Virginia (Cuccinelli or Bolling, hope not George Allen), Nevada (much depends on the candidate, John Ensign is weak)
LEAN REPUBLICAN: Nebraska (Dave Heineman?),
LEAN DEMOCRAT: Washington (but Rob McKenna could make it competitive), Minnesota (GOP could be competitive with Tom Emmer or one popular represenative), , Ohio (Brown vs Jon Husted? or a rep like Tiberi or Chabot?), Pennsylvania (GOP competitive with Joseph Scarnati, Mark Schweiker or Tom Ridge), Michigan (who could the GOP run? I believe in Lynn Land or former Senator Abraham).
Concluding I believe the GOP has a real shot in 3-4 states (Nebraska being the clearest pick up opportunity, followed by Montana and Virginia but could become competitive in many other states with the right candidates. Only potential loss for the GOP could be Massachussetts or Nevada, neither is likely though). I think the GOP could end the 2012 cycle with at least 51 senators, up to 53-54.
IF YOU HAVE THE PATIENCE OF READING ALL MY CHART, I’D APPRECIATE YOUR OPINIONS.
Foley had an interesting exhange with the CT Sec of State on air earlier today about the vote in Bridgeport. He was upset that the polling stations were left open until 10pm. The CT GOP is going to sue the state over the election (as Malloy’s final margin is likely going to be above the 2000 vote recount threshold). It’s going to be wild in CT. I hope everyone up there is going to be prepared.
I knew last night Brown won.
But my pleasant surprise this afternoon was logging on seeing that HUGE margin of defeat 54%-41%.
Now hopefully she takes her billions and JUST GOES AWAY.
What would your list be?
I would say Tommy Thompson but I kind of wonder how he would have done, after that woeful Presidential campaign.
I think Mike Sodrel is probably annoyed — he could have beaten Hill this year.
Looks like republicans have complete control of redistricting in NC because the governor is not involved in drawing districts.
The Oregon governor’s race has been called by Fox 12 Oregon (which employs the best political analyst in the state) for Democrat John Kitzhaber.
But it looks like Dan Maes got about 11% of the vote last night, keeping the Republicans a “major party” in Colorado. That’s important for the 2012 presidential election and the 2014 gubernatorial and Senate races.
Maes actually managed to win a couple counties in the far southwestern corner of the state! Strange how that can happen even as he lost by 39 statewide.
I’m surprised he hadn’t earlier.
I wake up this morning inspired by the people-powered, conviction politics we offered and the incredible results it produced. I feel bolstered by a team that understands real change does not happen with one election night victory or end with one loss. We shouldn’t have expected nirvana after our win in 2008 and we shouldn’t expect armageddon now. As I told the crowd last night, my father made me promise when I entered politics that I would always consider Judgement Day more important than election day, because doing what’s right is more important than winning elections. I believe he is smiling on us today, and that he is thankful for all of you who sacrificed so much to offer a better kind of politics in America.
god bless him
I was too pessimistic in the Senate, too optimistic in the house.
House. – I thought it would be between 30 and 40. Unfortunately was far off.
NY-13. Been predicting a close race in NY-13 and I thought McMahon was in extreme danger. McMahon had the same extreme negative barrage that did in other Democrats in the past. Still never thought he’d go down. Brooklyn didn’t come out like they should have (redistricting needs to attach something else besides the most Italian areas of Brooklyn to Staten Island) . However what has worried me from the start and what I’m going to look at once I can get my hands on the precinct numbers is African-Americans and Latinos on the North Shore. McMahon was helped a ton in 2008 by Obama drawing tons of minority voters on the North Shore (even if the swing mid-islanders hated Obama).
As for the rest of NY. Long Island tightened like I thought it would. But didn’t think anyone would fall including Bishop. Who didn’t do that much worse than McCarthy (51 versus 53). Upstate I thought would be a disaster. But in the end I thought only Hall and Arcuri would fall. Though Murphy falling wasn’t a surprise though.
VA-09. Boucher shocked me. I knew the cap & trade thing hurt him. But I thought he was out of hot water. And like Feingold he was one of the few people who were independent and not completely bought and paid for. Name one other rep who doesn’t say “how high?” when the National Association of Broadcasters asks for something. But I guess that is why they both lost. Inability to propery follow orders..
TX-27. What the hell? Same with TX-23 except Ciro has always been underwelming electorally. You’er in a hispanic district and you can’t get hispanics out to vote? South Texas Democrats need a kick in the pants. And might as well mention GA-02. Doesn’t this district still have a huge African-American component? The reason why we may have gone from say 40 to 60 seats lost is inability to get the base out.
ID-1. The environment and the state trumps the candidates. At a certain point you have to ask what could the Republican say to actually lose? Won’t call it shocking. It is Idaho and was a seat on borrowed time. But when someone like Labrador ends up in congress you know it’s a wave election. Hard to believe it’s the same seat Chenoweth once held. Oh wait. It isn’t.
Washington. Even though I know those city districts can be small… that’s a LOT of red for a blue state.
Senate. – I thought Republicans would gain 8. Luckily was less.
PA – I thought Sestak was going to pull it off. Okay. I was hoping for Feingold victory. But once the Democrats didnt ride it spending the money Feingold refused despite him like they did in 1998 I knew he was a goner.
Toomey the right wing purity troll founder of the Club for Growth is now a moderate? A strange strange worl.
CT – I thought despite the polls we would lose it. McMahon’s attacks had a lot of bite and Blumenthal just seemed lame as a candidate. One of those we like on paper because we barely know the state and casually browsed past election results but are shock by once we see the cob webs slowly come off. But give him credit. He closed this well.
NV – I never thought Harry Reid would win despite Sharon Angle saying some of the most attrocious things imaginable. In the end I thought the Nevadan economy which is probably THE worst in the nation would sink Reid. That Nevadans would vote for ANYONE just to send a message to Democrats. Turns it it was anyone but Angle.
And give Reid credit for running a great campaign even if he was a lousy candidate. His GOTV was great. Too bad it oculdn’t help bring Titus back across the finish line.
CO – I thought Bennett would go down. But let’s give Bennett credit here. How many people myself included thought he was a terrible appointment? He outperformed everyone and defied everyones expectations. Turns out Ritter did something right after all!
WA – I said Murray was more likely to lose than Boxer. Now let’s hope she turns out to be EXACTLY as likely to lose.
AK – If Joe Miller came out in favor of giving Alaska back to Russia how many fewer voters would’ve pulled a Republican lever? Would if he called for dumping large amounts of toxic and nuclear waste in the ocean? Oh wait. Someone in Oregon tried that and actually did better than Miller. Scary thing is Miller could still win. I’m hoping more prediction of him winning is wrong. But any word yet on whether just writing in “Murkowski” rather than “Lisa Murkowski” counts? More write-in votes than I expected but we have yet to see what the quality of them are going to be.
NY State Senate.
Voted for Avella for Mayor in the primary last year. Great to see after he lost that he came back and may just yet save the Senate for us. But God. We aren’t gonna know what is what for months. Not just to finish county the votes. But the recounts and finally the endless court battles.
In New York we can never make things simple.
Questions I still haven’t had answered.
Grimm in one of his advertisements said “Mike McMahon Doesn’t Want His Family on ObamaCare…. but he thinks it’s fine for YOUR family!”
How does one elect to enroll or not entroll in “Obamacare”? And what exactly is this “Obamacare”? If I don’t have health insurance and I’m not eligible for Medicare or Medicaid is there an office I can go to where I can sign up for “Obamacare?” Is there a co-pay? If we’re automatically enrolled in it how do we elect not be enrolled like the soon to be former congressman?
They are blaming each other for not capturing the senate.
it is amazing how divided the country really is… I came from and am a product of “red America” because I grew up in Louisiana.
Looking back, it seems inevitable that the South would now be once again the “Solid South” with the exception of a handful of majority minority districts.
New Orleans has lost a lot of its population and I am not sure if LA-02 will hold during redistricting. With the exception of FL (which is always a mess) and TX which I believe will trend the way of CA eventually, I am not sure that we will be able to make many inroads into this part of the country.
Quite frankly, I am more worried about the Rust Belt states in the Midwest with their population shrinkage that leaves behind non Dem friendly voters. Further, the Democratic party seems that it is becoming less “lunch pail” which seemed to be our key to the Rust Belt states. It seems more and more (with wins in NV and CO) our fate is tied to the West Coast and interior West states.
Any thoughts because I am trying to figure a path to win the house again.
This is probably way too early to talk about.
I know a lot of districts are going to look different after redistricting, but which defeated Democratic incumbents/candidates do you think will take another whack at it in two years time?
Obviously people like John Spratt, Bobby Bright, Gene Taylor, Paul Kanjorski, Ike Skelton and Earl Pomeroy are probably finished with their political careers. They’re either too old or their districts are too Republican for us to realistically win back.
I can definitely see folks like Annie Kuster, Scott Murphy, Ann Kirkpatrick, Suzan DelBene, Ron Klein, Mark Schauer, Patrick Murphy, and John Callahan seeking rematches or making bids in different districts in 2 years time.
20 and 27:
only SF County voted to put all redistricting back in the hands of the legislature.
What a great man, it’s a sad day when a guy like this looses. I really really hope he comes back either against Hurt in 2012 for Governor in 2013 or if Webb retires in 2012.
how much did Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown spend for each vote? Be sure to check out the Politico article for pictures of Whitman and McMahon looking like their about to cry while Fiorina looks like she’s about to snap.
Going into this cycle, we had a lot of offensive opportunities in the Senate we were pleased with. Open seats in all sorts of swingy areas. Last night, we lost in all of them. Ohio and New Hampshire were disasters, Florida’s a train wreck thanks to either Charlie Crist or Kendrick Meek, depending on who you want to blame, and Robin Carnahan barely cracked 40% in Missouri.
In fact, we ended up doing best in North Carolina, where Elaine Marshall went 43-55 against Richard Burr. Obviously, there’s only a few percentage points between Marshall and the performance of, say, Paul Hodes, but maybe we really did underestimate Marshall’s chances.
You win this time, Burr, but we’ll get you in 2016, when your name rec should be up to around 45% statewide!
He seems to be accepting the premise that pollsters undercounted Latino voters
There is another theory, however, which was proposed to me last night by Matt Barreto of the polling firm Latino Decisions.
“There is one overarching reason why the polls were wrong in Nevada,” Mr. Barreto wrote in an e-mail to FiveThirtyEight. “The Latino vote.”
His firm, which conducts interviews in both English and Spanish, had found that Latino voters – somewhat against the conventional wisdom – were relatively engaged by this election and for the most part were going to vote Democratic. Mr. Barreto also found that Latino voters who prefer to speak Spanish – about 40 percent of Latino voters in California meet this description, he told me – are particularly likely to vote Democratic. Pollsters who don’t conduct bilingual interviewing at all, or who make it cumbersome for the respondent to take the poll in Spanish, may be missing these voters.
conclusion
So, we have at least the beginnings of a pattern – and considering how rapidly the Latino population is growing, it’s one that pollsters are going to need to address in states like Nevada, California and Texas if we’re going to be able to take their results at face value.
Michael Bennet remind anyone of Senator Smith from Mr. Smith goes to Washington? I can’t get enough of him, loved him from the start. I think he’s going to be a real leader some day.
I noticed that Southern California Republicans really undeperformed. Darrell Issa ONLY won by 7% against Howard Katz. If he goes bonkers with the investigations he’ll be in a tight race. Hedrick and Pougnet each came within 10% of the Republican incumbents, Calvert and Mack.
Arizona: That’ll probably be one seat that we gain. +1 GOP
Florida: The new seat will probably favor Democrats because of the nonpartisan redistricting commission they just passed and the convoluted, pro-Republican shape of the districts. +1 DNC
Georgia: Probably Republican. +1 GOP
Illinois: Downstate is now almost completely Republican, and that’s where districts will be combined. -1 GOP
Iowa: With the new Republican government, it will probably be a lib that loses out. -1 DNC
Louisiana: The only seat that can be cut is a Republican. I think Richmond is protected by the VRA. -1 GOP
Massachusetts: It’s an all-Democrat House delegation. -1 DNC
Michigan: Hard to say, but the state is already heavily gerrymandered for the GOP. On the other hand, they retook the Senate and the Governorship. Still, my suspicion is that a Republican loses out. -1 GOP
Minnesota: Bachmann will probably be combined with Paulsen in the hopes she’ll lose. -1 GOP
Nevada: Probably Republican. +1 GOP
New Jersey: It’s done by a nonpartisan commission there. Runyan probably loses out. -1 GOP
New York: The Republicans dominate downstate at this point, which is where a seat will need to be cut. Maybe Owens v Gibson? -1 GOP
Ohio: There aren’t any Democrats left that can lose. Every one in all but the most left-wing districts were wiped out. -2 GOP
Pennsylvania: The GOP here can target a Democrat. Critz probably loses. It’s a bizarrely shaped district designed for Murtha in a depopulated area. -1 DNC
South Carolina: +1 GOP
Texas: I’ll guess +3 GOP, +1 DNC. The Texas DNC has been blown back to the stone age, but one of the seats will probably need to be Democratic.
Utah: +1 GOP
Washington: Hard to say. I suspect the Democrats there will want to shore up their endangered incumbents. +1 GOP
So that’s +9 GOP, +2 DNC, 9 GOP, 2 DNC. A wash, and if anything my predictions are very cautious.
that the FL amendment violates the VRA because it does not take race into account.
CA-01 Thompson (D) 62.56%
CA-02 Herger (R) 56.72%
CA-03 Lungren (R) 50.56%
CA-04 McClintock (R) 61.35%
CA-05 Matsui (D) 71.66%
CA-06 Woolsey (D) 65.21%
CA-07 George Miller (D) 67.28%
CA-08 Pelosi (D) 80.36% (in spite of all the hype, Dennis got only 15%!)
CA-37 Richardson (D) 69.12% (not the least bit surprised)
CA-38 Napolitano (D) 74.04%
CA-39 Linda Sanchez (D) 63.93%
CA-40 Royce (R) 67.16%
CA-41 Lewis (R) 63.31%
CA-42 Gary Miller (R) 61.76%
CA-43 Baca (D) 65.47%
CA-44 Calvert (R) 55.47%
CA-45 Bono Mack (R) 51.87%
CA-46 Rohrabacher (R) 61.93%
CA-47 Loretta Sanchez (D) 50.98%
CA-48 Campbell (R) 60.29%
CA-49 Issa (R) 50.65% (WTF???)
CA-50 Bilbray (R) 56.99%
CA-51 Filner (D) 59.68%
CA-52 Hunter (R) 63.45%
CA-53 Davis (D) 61.99%
So that means, if Vidak wins in CA-20, we have 8 Republicans that should be our top targets in 2012. Of course, their vulnerability also depends on the configuration of the new districts, though with most of the SoCal Republicans underperforming it’s going to be tough to save one without compromising another.
Crossing my fingers that the late absentees/provisionals break her way…
Despite Bernero doing so poorly ((40-58%)he came out with EXACTLY the margins he had been polling for for months before the election: 18%) he ended up winning Ingham (Lansing, his home-county), Wayne (Detroit), Genesee (Flint), Gogebic (Michigan’s furthest western county and mine-country) and…Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor), which is Rick Snyder’s home county.
That last one was kind of a moral victory, because even though it’s home to the University of Michigan, and you’d expect it to go Democratic, Snyder’s people had crowed all election long about how many cross-over Democrats they were winning. When the numbers came back, it pretty much looks like Bernero was able to hold just about all the state’s Dems, but unlike past Michigan Democratic governors, he wasn’t able to get any many independents.
of uncounted mailed-in and walked-in absentee ballots from the last couple days.
I haven’t read a number from the SoS yet estimating how many.
CA-11 McNerney vs Harmer is also still uncalled.
Absentee ballots dropped off at polling places that need to be counted. My parents dropped their ballots off. These ballots represent about 25% of the overall votes. Also, I have noticed that the absentee ballots dropped off pretty much mirror the statewide vote before they report. The reason is that the ballots were filled out earlier when the more conservative early votes reported and a couple of days before the election when it trended more Democratic though.
Although I know the first early votes from California skew Republican, the way they switch to the Democrats never ceases to amaze me. With 31% in, the race was 48-47 for Boxer and all my facebook friends (they are almost all Democrats) were really worried and I was too because Democratic areas were reporting. Then the poll day votes came in while I was asleep and I woke up to a nice 9 point lead for Boxer. Still, it looks like the Chronicle was pretty sure about the Attorney General race.
Also, Harris appeared to have some issues in the SF area. She won San Mateo County (just to the south of SF) by 18 points while Obama won it by 50. Cooley also received 20% in San Francisco. It is probably because she has not gotten favorable coverage in the area.
I noticed today that CNN had Cuomo losing Erie County (Buffalo) badly. The county’s elections website has the same result. Did something really weird happen or is it just a transcribing error and Cuomo and Paladino’s totals were flipped?
Front page of the newspaper has a huge (in terms of space) story about the midterms. And the title of the story is “Obama loses big.”
Oberstar has been an institution in this state since before my mother was in high school. Who the hell is Chip Cravaack?
Matheson also had a close call in UT-02.
but all the others surprised me. Other surprises: CT-4, CT-5 (no last minute surge in CT) GA-02, NY-23, OR-5 (SUSA sucks), IL-10 (Dan Seals sucks).
and Obestar were the two biggest for me.
I opened the front pages of my paper this morning to find photos of Alexi Giannoulias and Mark Kirk having their own ‘beer summit’, as apparently fulfilling a promise made during the campaign. It’s nice to see that two people who ran against each other so vehemently for the same office can sit down like normal human beings. Congrats once again to Senator-elect Kirk.
Does anyone else think it is subliminal messaging that Giannoulias chose to show up dressed like a blue collar guy who might vote Democratic? I wonder if he had done this during the campaign would he have won more votes downstate?
but hats off to him for pulling that out (with a little help from his friends in the Tea Party).
If you’d told me ten months ago that Bennet and Reid would be reelected and Feingold would lose, I would never have believed you.
I’m assuming much of America will be thinking that very soon.
Mollohan should run next year.
I’m sorry Kravotil lost, although that was probably inevitable.
It looks like Republicans only won 6 seats in the state house and might actually LOSE two in the state senate.
I was especially happy to read that Alex Mooney might lose, since along with Don Dwyer and that woman who made a fool of herself until Ehrlich got her an appointment outside of the state legislature (I can’t remember her name — didn’t she berate kids and their parents on some day there was testimony about a gay rights bill), don’t do a lot to help my opinion of MD Republicans.
Of course he hasn’t lost yet, but one can hope.
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.co…
I’ve been listening to a lot of commentary on both the radio and television, and one point everyone circles back to is how unpopular Nancy Pelosi was, and how supporting her cost a lot of Democrats their seats.
You guys think that’s true? I have my doubts, but I’m also hard pressed to come up with other reasons why Dems who voted against the entire Republican agenda (Walt Minnick? Bobby Bright?) lost.
Of course, a lot of the blue dogs said they wouldn’t support her a second time around either.
Tomorrow, we rebuild Section Six!
For what it’s worth, the Republicans can credit their general victory to a bunch of forced toxic memes, and also REPEATEDLY encouraging people to think very short-term and neglect things. Oversimplifying things like economic policy, and presenting them in very convenient soundbites to entice uninformed voters.
I strongly advise Democratic Party strategists to figure out how to beat them at this game.
a completely horrible night. At least not in the Senate anyway. MO was VERY brutal no getting around it. As much hype as that race got, Indiana ended up closer. GREAT about Colorado, Nevada and probably(fingers crossed) Washington. Also we picked up governors in VT, CT, CA, HI, RI and it looks like Pat freaking Quinn will win. The house is obviously a different story, but it could have been worse and think of it this way, a lot of one term wonders got elected and a lot of OMG did they win? D members held on last night. Bill Owens was a GREAT win. Who thought we would lose all those other NY CD’s but Owens would hang on? What will they do with his CD? Will they make it safe or work to get Murphy back into Congress?
I ordered a Brad Ellsworth bumper sticker like 4 or 5 months ago and it never came. I even sent a couple of emails and got no reply. It was in my mailbox today.
I’ve never seen her as much of a Presidential contender anyway, but I have to wonder if everything is downhill from here in regards to her political career. She’s tied to the Tea Party, but many of those she supported, like Karen Handel, either didn’t make it out of the primary, or went on to lose the general election. The feud with Lisa Murkwoski was very personal and if Lisa somehow manages to win, then that would make Palin look even worse.
Sweet baby Jesus, I think she pulled it out! Which means the Prop 8 case, even if something weird like a retrial happens, is still looking good. Maybe I’ll actually be able to get married before my mother has an anuerysm from the lack of grandbabies.
Did any moderate Republicans got elected this cycle?
It looks like Democrats lost 5 seats in the AZ State House and 3 seats in the State Senate (incidentally, all Hispanics Dems who were defeated by White Repubs). This includes State Senator and Democratic rising star Rebecca Rios, who lost her Pinal County district by 8 points to Steve “whodat?” Smith. We did end up holding on to Harry Mitchell’s old State Senate seat (which I didn’t think we would do if Mitchell lost by double digits); State Rep. David Schapira beat back Wendy Rogers 50-45. That’s still closer than it should have been given that Obama won the district by 14 points, but at least Schapira has experience with a close race in case he wants to run against Scweikert sometime…
Anyway, Republicans should have a 40-20 advantage in the State House and a 21-9 advantage in the State Senate. Pretty much nowhere to go but up at this point, but it’s going to be an ugly two years.
anyone explain what the hell happened in Missouri last night. It’s like most of the Democrats didn’t bother to vote or something.
Texas
– 3 US House (Chet Edwards, Ciro Rodriguez, Ortiz)
– 0 State Senate (thank god for the gerrymander)
– 22 State House (no rural dems left, they’re all gone, same with suburbans. Few Whites left int he caucus)
– 1 state board of education (OW!!!!)
Lost everything in Harris and Galveston county up for re-election.
White underperformed Obama by 2%
Good
Dallas county sweep is complete, got EVERY county wide and got commissioner court seat up, so we now have 22 on that court to draw the precinct lines of Dallas county.-Dems are 1 over in the house and 2 over int he state senate of 1/3, so the GOP can’t go stupid.
but Dianne Feinstein said at a Boxer rally last week:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.co…
Places where things went relatively well:
* Connecticut
* California
* Oregon
* Massachusetts
* Rhode Island
* North Carolina
Places where things went relatively badly:
* Missouri
* Ohio
* Pennsylvania
* New Hampshire
* Wisconsin
http://www.syracuse.com/news/i…
Would be Reps 6th pickup in NY.
Some I can think of so far:
* Means surprised the Dem won
TX-27 (Ortiz)
NY-25 (Maffei)
NC-02 (Etheridge)
NC-08 (Kissell)*
IL-08 (Bean, did ANYBODY see this coming with how much of a joke Walsh’s campaign was?)
VA-09 (Boucher)
Any others?
Some I can think of so far:
* Means surprised the Dem won
TX-27 (Ortiz)
NY-25 (Maffei)
NC-02 (Etheridge)
NC-08 (Kissell)*
IL-08 (Bean, did ANYBODY see this coming with how much of a joke Walsh’s campaign was?)
VA-09 (Boucher)
Any others?
and not “Post-Mortem” lol.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/…
Hi Everyone, I am new member, this is my first comment. I am an Italian student who is somehow infatuated with American Politics (maybe because ours is sooo bad that I can hardly follow it?) and lives 3 months a year in the U.S. (Florida, Texas and Arkansas).
As every other time I watched closely the returns yesterday night, especially those concerning the Senate as you folks were updating me on the house gains/losses.
At school I studied the possible outcome of the future elections for the U.S. Senate (2010 and 2012) for a project. Gotta say that we didn’t get all predictions correct for what regards 2010 but anyway. What do you think about 2012? how many incumbent will be at danger? how many will retire?
I think the GOP will easily gain a majority in the Senate in 2012. Do you agree with this prediction?
This is my personal table of the races, I’d love to know your opinions as they might be useful to update my chart HEHE (the table reports also possible GOP candidates for the posts)
SAFE DEMOCRAT: Rhode Island, New Mexico, Vermont (Indipendent), Hawaii (unless Akaka retires, and Lingle runs, in that case would be Lean Republican), California (I don’t see any viable candidate for the GOP, do you?), New York (same as California).
SAFE REPUBLICAN: Wyoming, Utah, Mississippi, Indiana, Maine (just if Snowe runs, otherwise toss-up)
LIKELY DEMOCRAT: Maryland (I believe only Susan Schwab could beat Cardin), Delaware (unless Mike Castle runs, in that case would be Lean Republican), New Jersey, West Virginia (unless Moore Capito runs, in that case Lean Democrat), Wisconsin (if Kohl retires and Ryan or Thompson run for the GOP could be Toss Up)
LIKELY REPUBLICAN: Arizona, Tennessee (will Hank Williams ever run?), Texas
TOSS UP: Missouri (I believe GOP would win with Peter Kinder or one of its Reps, not convinced about Jim Talent running again), Massachussetts, North Dakota (much depends on Sen. Conrad, if he retires it becomes Likely Republican. Possible candidates? Jack Dalrymple or Ed Schafer), Connecticut (Joe Lieberman will steal Dem votes, if he retires and Jodi Rell runs it might as well be Lean Republican), Florida (could be the most interesting race of the year, a battle of giants Nelson vs Bush. Other possible GOP candidates (weaker ones) could be Bill McCollum, Adam Putnam, Jeff Kottkamp).
TOSS UP/TILT REPUBLICAN: Montana (Denny Rehberg?), Virginia (Cuccinelli or Bolling, hope not George Allen), Nevada (much depends on the candidate, John Ensign is weak)
LEAN REPUBLICAN: Nebraska (Dave Heineman?),
LEAN DEMOCRAT: Washington (but Rob McKenna could make it competitive), Minnesota (GOP could be competitive with Tom Emmer or one popular represenative), , Ohio (Brown vs Jon Husted? or a rep like Tiberi or Chabot?), Pennsylvania (GOP competitive with Joseph Scarnati, Mark Schweiker or Tom Ridge), Michigan (who could the GOP run? I believe in Lynn Land or former Senator Abraham).
Concluding I believe the GOP has a real shot in 3-4 states (Nebraska being the clearest pick up opportunity, followed by Montana and Virginia but could become competitive in many other states with the right candidates. Only potential loss for the GOP could be Massachussetts or Nevada, neither is likely though). I think the GOP could end the 2012 cycle with at least 51 senators, up to 53-54.
IF YOU HAVE THE PATIENCE OF READING ALL MY CHART, I’D APPRECIATE YOUR OPINIONS.
Foley had an interesting exhange with the CT Sec of State on air earlier today about the vote in Bridgeport. He was upset that the polling stations were left open until 10pm. The CT GOP is going to sue the state over the election (as Malloy’s final margin is likely going to be above the 2000 vote recount threshold). It’s going to be wild in CT. I hope everyone up there is going to be prepared.
I knew last night Brown won.
But my pleasant surprise this afternoon was logging on seeing that HUGE margin of defeat 54%-41%.
Now hopefully she takes her billions and JUST GOES AWAY.
What would your list be?
I would say Tommy Thompson but I kind of wonder how he would have done, after that woeful Presidential campaign.
I think Mike Sodrel is probably annoyed — he could have beaten Hill this year.
Looks like republicans have complete control of redistricting in NC because the governor is not involved in drawing districts.
link:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/11/03/biggest_gop_gains_in_statehouses_107826.html
The Oregon governor’s race has been called by Fox 12 Oregon (which employs the best political analyst in the state) for Democrat John Kitzhaber.
But it looks like Dan Maes got about 11% of the vote last night, keeping the Republicans a “major party” in Colorado. That’s important for the 2012 presidential election and the 2014 gubernatorial and Senate races.
Maes actually managed to win a couple counties in the far southwestern corner of the state! Strange how that can happen even as he lost by 39 statewide.
I’m surprised he hadn’t earlier.
god bless him
I was too pessimistic in the Senate, too optimistic in the house.
House. – I thought it would be between 30 and 40. Unfortunately was far off.
NY-13. Been predicting a close race in NY-13 and I thought McMahon was in extreme danger. McMahon had the same extreme negative barrage that did in other Democrats in the past. Still never thought he’d go down. Brooklyn didn’t come out like they should have (redistricting needs to attach something else besides the most Italian areas of Brooklyn to Staten Island) . However what has worried me from the start and what I’m going to look at once I can get my hands on the precinct numbers is African-Americans and Latinos on the North Shore. McMahon was helped a ton in 2008 by Obama drawing tons of minority voters on the North Shore (even if the swing mid-islanders hated Obama).
As for the rest of NY. Long Island tightened like I thought it would. But didn’t think anyone would fall including Bishop. Who didn’t do that much worse than McCarthy (51 versus 53). Upstate I thought would be a disaster. But in the end I thought only Hall and Arcuri would fall. Though Murphy falling wasn’t a surprise though.
VA-09. Boucher shocked me. I knew the cap & trade thing hurt him. But I thought he was out of hot water. And like Feingold he was one of the few people who were independent and not completely bought and paid for. Name one other rep who doesn’t say “how high?” when the National Association of Broadcasters asks for something. But I guess that is why they both lost. Inability to propery follow orders..
TX-27. What the hell? Same with TX-23 except Ciro has always been underwelming electorally. You’er in a hispanic district and you can’t get hispanics out to vote? South Texas Democrats need a kick in the pants. And might as well mention GA-02. Doesn’t this district still have a huge African-American component? The reason why we may have gone from say 40 to 60 seats lost is inability to get the base out.
ID-1. The environment and the state trumps the candidates. At a certain point you have to ask what could the Republican say to actually lose? Won’t call it shocking. It is Idaho and was a seat on borrowed time. But when someone like Labrador ends up in congress you know it’s a wave election. Hard to believe it’s the same seat Chenoweth once held. Oh wait. It isn’t.
Washington. Even though I know those city districts can be small… that’s a LOT of red for a blue state.
Senate. – I thought Republicans would gain 8. Luckily was less.
PA – I thought Sestak was going to pull it off. Okay. I was hoping for Feingold victory. But once the Democrats didnt ride it spending the money Feingold refused despite him like they did in 1998 I knew he was a goner.
Toomey the right wing purity troll founder of the Club for Growth is now a moderate? A strange strange worl.
CT – I thought despite the polls we would lose it. McMahon’s attacks had a lot of bite and Blumenthal just seemed lame as a candidate. One of those we like on paper because we barely know the state and casually browsed past election results but are shock by once we see the cob webs slowly come off. But give him credit. He closed this well.
NV – I never thought Harry Reid would win despite Sharon Angle saying some of the most attrocious things imaginable. In the end I thought the Nevadan economy which is probably THE worst in the nation would sink Reid. That Nevadans would vote for ANYONE just to send a message to Democrats. Turns it it was anyone but Angle.
And give Reid credit for running a great campaign even if he was a lousy candidate. His GOTV was great. Too bad it oculdn’t help bring Titus back across the finish line.
CO – I thought Bennett would go down. But let’s give Bennett credit here. How many people myself included thought he was a terrible appointment? He outperformed everyone and defied everyones expectations. Turns out Ritter did something right after all!
WA – I said Murray was more likely to lose than Boxer. Now let’s hope she turns out to be EXACTLY as likely to lose.
AK – If Joe Miller came out in favor of giving Alaska back to Russia how many fewer voters would’ve pulled a Republican lever? Would if he called for dumping large amounts of toxic and nuclear waste in the ocean? Oh wait. Someone in Oregon tried that and actually did better than Miller. Scary thing is Miller could still win. I’m hoping more prediction of him winning is wrong. But any word yet on whether just writing in “Murkowski” rather than “Lisa Murkowski” counts? More write-in votes than I expected but we have yet to see what the quality of them are going to be.
NY State Senate.
Voted for Avella for Mayor in the primary last year. Great to see after he lost that he came back and may just yet save the Senate for us. But God. We aren’t gonna know what is what for months. Not just to finish county the votes. But the recounts and finally the endless court battles.
In New York we can never make things simple.
Questions I still haven’t had answered.
Grimm in one of his advertisements said “Mike McMahon Doesn’t Want His Family on ObamaCare…. but he thinks it’s fine for YOUR family!”
How does one elect to enroll or not entroll in “Obamacare”? And what exactly is this “Obamacare”? If I don’t have health insurance and I’m not eligible for Medicare or Medicaid is there an office I can go to where I can sign up for “Obamacare?” Is there a co-pay? If we’re automatically enrolled in it how do we elect not be enrolled like the soon to be former congressman?
They are blaming each other for not capturing the senate.
It is a SC showdown
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
Winner: Field Poll, period.
Second-winner: LA Times poll
Middling loser: PPP
Mega-losers: Rasmussen and SurveyUSA
including Wapello (Ottumwa area), which he didn’t win even in his 1994 landslide. Unemployment is high in SE Iowa.
Branstad narrowly won Polk County (Des Moines and suburbs).
I posted the 8 counties Culver carried at Bleeding Heartland.
50%??? In a Republican year?
it is amazing how divided the country really is… I came from and am a product of “red America” because I grew up in Louisiana.
Looking back, it seems inevitable that the South would now be once again the “Solid South” with the exception of a handful of majority minority districts.
New Orleans has lost a lot of its population and I am not sure if LA-02 will hold during redistricting. With the exception of FL (which is always a mess) and TX which I believe will trend the way of CA eventually, I am not sure that we will be able to make many inroads into this part of the country.
Quite frankly, I am more worried about the Rust Belt states in the Midwest with their population shrinkage that leaves behind non Dem friendly voters. Further, the Democratic party seems that it is becoming less “lunch pail” which seemed to be our key to the Rust Belt states. It seems more and more (with wins in NV and CO) our fate is tied to the West Coast and interior West states.
Any thoughts because I am trying to figure a path to win the house again.
This is probably way too early to talk about.
I know a lot of districts are going to look different after redistricting, but which defeated Democratic incumbents/candidates do you think will take another whack at it in two years time?
Obviously people like John Spratt, Bobby Bright, Gene Taylor, Paul Kanjorski, Ike Skelton and Earl Pomeroy are probably finished with their political careers. They’re either too old or their districts are too Republican for us to realistically win back.
I can definitely see folks like Annie Kuster, Scott Murphy, Ann Kirkpatrick, Suzan DelBene, Ron Klein, Mark Schauer, Patrick Murphy, and John Callahan seeking rematches or making bids in different districts in 2 years time.
20 and 27:
only SF County voted to put all redistricting back in the hands of the legislature.
What a great man, it’s a sad day when a guy like this looses. I really really hope he comes back either against Hurt in 2012 for Governor in 2013 or if Webb retires in 2012.
It’s definitely worth watching:
http://www.ustream.tv/recorded…
how much did Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown spend for each vote? Be sure to check out the Politico article for pictures of Whitman and McMahon looking like their about to cry while Fiorina looks like she’s about to snap.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/s…
Going into this cycle, we had a lot of offensive opportunities in the Senate we were pleased with. Open seats in all sorts of swingy areas. Last night, we lost in all of them. Ohio and New Hampshire were disasters, Florida’s a train wreck thanks to either Charlie Crist or Kendrick Meek, depending on who you want to blame, and Robin Carnahan barely cracked 40% in Missouri.
In fact, we ended up doing best in North Carolina, where Elaine Marshall went 43-55 against Richard Burr. Obviously, there’s only a few percentage points between Marshall and the performance of, say, Paul Hodes, but maybe we really did underestimate Marshall’s chances.
You win this time, Burr, but we’ll get you in 2016, when your name rec should be up to around 45% statewide!
He seems to be accepting the premise that pollsters undercounted Latino voters
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n…
conclusion
Michael Bennet remind anyone of Senator Smith from Mr. Smith goes to Washington? I can’t get enough of him, loved him from the start. I think he’s going to be a real leader some day.
http://www.wral.com/news/local…
I dont think this has been posted yet.
I noticed that Southern California Republicans really undeperformed. Darrell Issa ONLY won by 7% against Howard Katz. If he goes bonkers with the investigations he’ll be in a tight race. Hedrick and Pougnet each came within 10% of the Republican incumbents, Calvert and Mack.
Here are my thoughts.
url=”http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/608…-news-for-mo-wa[/url]
Arizona: That’ll probably be one seat that we gain. +1 GOP
Florida: The new seat will probably favor Democrats because of the nonpartisan redistricting commission they just passed and the convoluted, pro-Republican shape of the districts. +1 DNC
Georgia: Probably Republican. +1 GOP
Illinois: Downstate is now almost completely Republican, and that’s where districts will be combined. -1 GOP
Iowa: With the new Republican government, it will probably be a lib that loses out. -1 DNC
Louisiana: The only seat that can be cut is a Republican. I think Richmond is protected by the VRA. -1 GOP
Massachusetts: It’s an all-Democrat House delegation. -1 DNC
Michigan: Hard to say, but the state is already heavily gerrymandered for the GOP. On the other hand, they retook the Senate and the Governorship. Still, my suspicion is that a Republican loses out. -1 GOP
Minnesota: Bachmann will probably be combined with Paulsen in the hopes she’ll lose. -1 GOP
Nevada: Probably Republican. +1 GOP
New Jersey: It’s done by a nonpartisan commission there. Runyan probably loses out. -1 GOP
New York: The Republicans dominate downstate at this point, which is where a seat will need to be cut. Maybe Owens v Gibson? -1 GOP
Ohio: There aren’t any Democrats left that can lose. Every one in all but the most left-wing districts were wiped out. -2 GOP
Pennsylvania: The GOP here can target a Democrat. Critz probably loses. It’s a bizarrely shaped district designed for Murtha in a depopulated area. -1 DNC
South Carolina: +1 GOP
Texas: I’ll guess +3 GOP, +1 DNC. The Texas DNC has been blown back to the stone age, but one of the seats will probably need to be Democratic.
Utah: +1 GOP
Washington: Hard to say. I suspect the Democrats there will want to shore up their endangered incumbents. +1 GOP
So that’s +9 GOP, +2 DNC,
9 GOP,2 DNC. A wash, and if anything my predictions are very cautious.that the FL amendment violates the VRA because it does not take race into account.
CA-01 Thompson (D) 62.56%
CA-02 Herger (R) 56.72%
CA-03 Lungren (R) 50.56%
CA-04 McClintock (R) 61.35%
CA-05 Matsui (D) 71.66%
CA-06 Woolsey (D) 65.21%
CA-07 George Miller (D) 67.28%
CA-08 Pelosi (D) 80.36% (in spite of all the hype, Dennis got only 15%!)
CA-09 Lee (D) 83.37%
CA-10 Garamendi (D) 58.13%
CA-11 McNerney (D) 47.49% (pending absentee count)
CA-12 Speier (D) 74.84%
CA-13 Stark (D) 71.54%
CA-14 Eshoo (D) 68.28%
CA-15 Honda (D) 66.54%
CA-16 Lofgren (D) 67.09%
CA-17 Farr (D) 66.32%
CA-18 Cardoza (D) 57.60%
CA-19 Denham (R) 64.65%
CA-20 Vidak (R) 51.44% (pending absentee count)
CA-21 Nunes (R) unopposed
CA-22 McCarthy (R) unopposed
CA-23 Capps (D) 57.13%
CA-24 Gallegly (R) 60.08%
CA-25 McKeon (R) 61.69%
CA-26 Dreier (R) 53.96%
CA-27 Sherman (D) 65.17%
CA-28 Berman (D) 69.73%
CA-29 Schiff (D) 65.20%
CA-30 Waxman (D) 64.44%
CA-31 Becerra (D) 84.07%
CA-32 Chu (D) 71.23%
CA-33 Bass (D) 86.34%
CA-34 Roybal-Allard (D) 77.41%
CA-35 Waters (D) 79.36%
CA-36 Harman (D) 59.60%
CA-37 Richardson (D) 69.12% (not the least bit surprised)
CA-38 Napolitano (D) 74.04%
CA-39 Linda Sanchez (D) 63.93%
CA-40 Royce (R) 67.16%
CA-41 Lewis (R) 63.31%
CA-42 Gary Miller (R) 61.76%
CA-43 Baca (D) 65.47%
CA-44 Calvert (R) 55.47%
CA-45 Bono Mack (R) 51.87%
CA-46 Rohrabacher (R) 61.93%
CA-47 Loretta Sanchez (D) 50.98%
CA-48 Campbell (R) 60.29%
CA-49 Issa (R) 50.65% (WTF???)
CA-50 Bilbray (R) 56.99%
CA-51 Filner (D) 59.68%
CA-52 Hunter (R) 63.45%
CA-53 Davis (D) 61.99%
So that means, if Vidak wins in CA-20, we have 8 Republicans that should be our top targets in 2012. Of course, their vulnerability also depends on the configuration of the new districts, though with most of the SoCal Republicans underperforming it’s going to be tough to save one without compromising another.
Crossing my fingers that the late absentees/provisionals break her way…
Despite Bernero doing so poorly ((40-58%)he came out with EXACTLY the margins he had been polling for for months before the election: 18%) he ended up winning Ingham (Lansing, his home-county), Wayne (Detroit), Genesee (Flint), Gogebic (Michigan’s furthest western county and mine-country) and…Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor), which is Rick Snyder’s home county.
That last one was kind of a moral victory, because even though it’s home to the University of Michigan, and you’d expect it to go Democratic, Snyder’s people had crowed all election long about how many cross-over Democrats they were winning. When the numbers came back, it pretty much looks like Bernero was able to hold just about all the state’s Dems, but unlike past Michigan Democratic governors, he wasn’t able to get any many independents.
of uncounted mailed-in and walked-in absentee ballots from the last couple days.
I haven’t read a number from the SoS yet estimating how many.
CA-11 McNerney vs Harmer is also still uncalled.
Absentee ballots dropped off at polling places that need to be counted. My parents dropped their ballots off. These ballots represent about 25% of the overall votes. Also, I have noticed that the absentee ballots dropped off pretty much mirror the statewide vote before they report. The reason is that the ballots were filled out earlier when the more conservative early votes reported and a couple of days before the election when it trended more Democratic though.
Although I know the first early votes from California skew Republican, the way they switch to the Democrats never ceases to amaze me. With 31% in, the race was 48-47 for Boxer and all my facebook friends (they are almost all Democrats) were really worried and I was too because Democratic areas were reporting. Then the poll day votes came in while I was asleep and I woke up to a nice 9 point lead for Boxer. Still, it looks like the Chronicle was pretty sure about the Attorney General race.
Also, Harris appeared to have some issues in the SF area. She won San Mateo County (just to the south of SF) by 18 points while Obama won it by 50. Cooley also received 20% in San Francisco. It is probably because she has not gotten favorable coverage in the area.
I noticed today that CNN had Cuomo losing Erie County (Buffalo) badly. The county’s elections website has the same result. Did something really weird happen or is it just a transcribing error and Cuomo and Paladino’s totals were flipped?
Front page of the newspaper has a huge (in terms of space) story about the midterms. And the title of the story is “Obama loses big.”
Oberstar has been an institution in this state since before my mother was in high school. Who the hell is Chip Cravaack?
Matheson also had a close call in UT-02.
but all the others surprised me. Other surprises: CT-4, CT-5 (no last minute surge in CT) GA-02, NY-23, OR-5 (SUSA sucks), IL-10 (Dan Seals sucks).
and Obestar were the two biggest for me.
I opened the front pages of my paper this morning to find photos of Alexi Giannoulias and Mark Kirk having their own ‘beer summit’, as apparently fulfilling a promise made during the campaign. It’s nice to see that two people who ran against each other so vehemently for the same office can sit down like normal human beings. Congrats once again to Senator-elect Kirk.
Does anyone else think it is subliminal messaging that Giannoulias chose to show up dressed like a blue collar guy who might vote Democratic? I wonder if he had done this during the campaign would he have won more votes downstate?