Another try at New York.
I am emphasizing upstate NY-from Westchester County upwards. I am assuming that the Dems lose a seat in NYC, so the Rs will now have to take a hit upstate.
General map
Old CDs overlaid on New map
In several instances, the ideal percentage for a party was reduced in an effort to keep some coherence in township boundaries.
for ease of reference, I am keeping the old CD numbers and general locations where possible.
Old CD17 New CD17
O72% M28% O67% M32%
Rockland, Westchester, NYC
safe for Engle. An alternative would be to push CD17 completely into NYC, making CD18 a Westchester/Rockland District. Either way, both CD17 and CD18 would be safe D.
OldCD18 NewCD18 Lowey
O62 M38 O70% M30%
Westchester County, NYC
Old CD19 New CD19 Hayworth
O51% M48% O50% M49%
Could have hiked the McCain % some if she didnt live in Westchester.
Loses Dutchess County, gains R portions of Rockland.
Old CD20 New CD20 Gibson
O51% M48% O50% M49%
Similar configuration to the old. Loses some of the more D portions of Dutchess, gains Fulton County.
Old CD21 New CD21 Tonko
O58% M40% O58% M40%
Gains Otsego county, but similar configuration
Old CD22 New CD22 Hinchey
O59 M39 O58% M40%
Similar configuration to old district. Gains all of Tompkins County, parts of western Dutchess County. I could easily bring back up to 59% by breaking up townships in Dutchess.
Old CD23 New CD23 Owens
O52 M47 O58% M40%
Major surgey to bring in Syracuse City, but over half the district [the good half] is from Owens old CD23. A brutal primary with a Syracuse politician could be fatal, but this seems the only way to bring in the necessary D voters. 200,000 of the district is now Syracuse.
CD24 disappeared into new CD24, CD29, CD25
Old CD25 New CD25 Buerkle and Hanna both R
O56% M43% O50% M48%
Looks like a fight between Onondaga County Buerkle][sans Syracuse] and Oneida county [Hanna]
Old CD26 New CD26 Lee
O46% M52% O45% M54%
Loses Monroe county, gains in Erie county, and gains Chautauqua county, but retains the general configuration of his old district. I deliberately kept all of his old district in his new, outside of the above, since Lee probably has the clout vs Reed to do so.
Old CD27 New CD27 Higgins
O54% M44% O63 M35
City of Buffalo
Old CD28 New CDRochester
O69% M30% O58% M40%
I did read somewhere that Slaughter was not happy with the dumbell. Well, now her district is confined to Monroe County.
Old CD29 New CD24 Reed
O48 M51 O46 M52
Mostly the old CD29, sans Monroe County. Gains 4 counties on the eastern edge from CD24 and CD25.
Map of Old CDs on new
I see your new NY-20 and NY-25 as ones that are winnable by Dems in the right year as well.
I also hope Buerkle is the one who is the odd one out.
I posted at The Albany Project. I merged Rep. Gibson’s and Hayworth’s residencese and set Rep. Buerkle up with a Dem.-leaning district. Rep. Buerkle keeps Syracuse and picks up Ithaca!
for posting.
Upstate NY could certainly be done like this. I am not sure how it will play out. I go back to my point of earlier-for a previous map-that the GOP would probably prefer to chop NY29 as keeping Onondaga in one seat increases the chance of getting at NY23 while you can pile GOP areas from NY29 into NY25–NY24–plus whatever number Lee’s seat becomes.
Under your map above NY22 & NY23 look nearly certain to stay democratic for 10 years. I suspect as the GOP will be eliminating the upstate seat they would prefer to have fairly secure (can’t be too secure) for whatever seats are left.
Based on history look for a NY Map in the summer of 2012. I think I am safe in projecting that NY will be the last major state to draw its lines.
He’s been a good Democrat, and hasn’t done anything to piss off the base.
I tried to and it forced me into a really really ugly configuration for Tonko. And it really wasn’t worth it for Hayworth who lives in Westchester to begin with.
The main fear I have for upstate redistricting is whether the Obama numbers given how much Obama overpeformed upstate versus the traditional Republican tilt are a good indicator of Democratic strength.
As little change I would draw a little less safe districts for the republicans in the western side (Higgins would not need 63% Obama). The rest of the map is well for me in the current situation.
Surely with the same map I would tell the NY-25 disappear. The bigger part of the territory of the new Bluerkle-Hanna district seems from the old NY-24.
Now for a 27 district map, the trouble goes to the other side of the state. I think the democrats in the state legislature should want the republicans lose Staten Island (I would call it: NY-13 disappear).