NC-Gov: Perdue Still Trails, Although By Less

Public Policy Polling (1/20-23, North Carolina voters, 11/19-21/2010 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D-inc): 40 (37)

Pat McCrory (R): 47 (49)

Undecided: 14 (14)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

This North Carolina gubernatorial poll from PPP was unremarkable enough that it got buried under a pile of other stuff last week, but with the news that the Democratic National Convention for 2012 will be held in Charlotte, it’s worth a look. It still shows incumbent Dem Bev Perdue (whose 2008 victory over Pat McCrory was pretty unconvincing, probably owing her limping across the finish line to Barack Obama strongly contesting the state and driving minority and youth turnout) trailing McCrory in a rematch, but not as badly. The previous poll was right before the Nov. election, which is one more data point (along with, say, rebounding approval numbers for both parties) that the move to divided government took a fair amount of pressure off the Dems in general, by virtue of them not being the only ones left holding the bag anymore.

At any rate, while the Charlotte decision makes it clear that North Carolina is at the top of the Dems’ pivot-point considerations for 2012, what effect it has for the downballot races is unclear (and bear in mind that NC doesn’t have a Senate race that year, so the gubernatorial race is the main game in town after the presidency): does this help Perdue by giving a ground-game boost to her bid? Or does it hurt her by nationalizing the race? (The same questions could be asked of Missouri, where St. Louis was the losing contender. Does that conversely hurt Claire McCaskill, with Missouri clearly lower on the Dems’ leverage priority list this year, or help her by giving her a little breathing room from the national party?)

25 thoughts on “NC-Gov: Perdue Still Trails, Although By Less”

  2. The President will/should get out the majority of the state’s Democratic base from the STL and KC, so it will be up to McCaskill to work the rural interior of the state to win over independents and garner cross-over votes. STL landing the convention would have been nice, but I am skeptical it would garner anymore help for the down-ballot Dems than just seriously contesting the state will.

  3. that McCaskill lobbied against having the convention in St. Louis. She feared it would attract protesters (which is obviously will) and divert donations away from her and toward Obama and the DNC. I also suspect she didn’t want to nationalize the race, though it wasn’t cited in the article. Perhaps because saying so would be tantamount to telling Obama to screw off. McCaskill is personally close with the President and will probably need to utilize him to at least some degree to win her reelection bid.

    link: http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes…

  5. but NC sure as hell isn’t mass.  any chance detective moore, or some other NC dem would be willing to challenge her?  heck, might she retire?

  6. her not running again?  Or maybe a strong primary challenge?

    I’d say she needs to pull a Blanco and resign, but that did not necessarily end up well for us (though that result was pretty much preordanied).

  8. I mean to me McCrory is a fairly perfect cnadidate for NC, having been mayor of a large population center, a conservative Republican but one who seems to lack complete hate-mongering, and some other things.  But of course Obama was able to help her a lot.

    Its possible Obama could push her over again.  Its possible that McCrory could udnerperform in Charlotte in 2012 compared to 2008 as people might forget him a little bit 4 years later.  Or its possible everything goes against Perdue and people are stillc ranky in 2012 and vote out the incumbent.

    I think this race will be pretty interesting.  I don’t really see a better candidate than Perdue in any scenario.  If the economy improves by 2012, maybe she cna lay claim to that.  if it doesn’t, I don’t see how any other Dem can step in and win.

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