Indiana’s Republican Governor Mitch Daniels has had a bit of a bumpy first term. Controversy surrounding his initiative to privatize Indiana’s toll road, his efforts to push the state into following daylight savings time, and his clashes with the state legislature over tax increases wore down his approval rating dramatically. In fact, Daniels’ disapproval ratings were higher than his approval ratings for all but one of SurveyUSA’s monthly tracking polls during 2006.
Research 2000 has released the first poll of Daniels’ re-election race, and of the Democratic primary between state Senator Richard Young, businessman Jim Schellinger, and former Rep. Jill Long Thompson. The results are not pretty for Mitch.
First, the Governor’s approvals:
Q: How would you rate the performance of Mitch Daniels as Governor; excellent, good, only fair, or poor?Excellent/Good: 45
Fair/Poor: 47
Not Sure: 8MoE: ±3.5%
Next, the straight-up re-election numbers:
Q: If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote to reelect Mitch Daniels, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Daniels?Re-Elect: 39
Would Consider Another Candidate: 21
Would Not Re-Elect: 37
Interestingly, 14% of Republicans polled would consider voting for another candidate, and 12% would vote for someone else. In a general election match-up poll against Jill Long Thompson, Daniels isn’t exactly sitting in a position of strength:
Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 46
Jill Long Thompson (D): 38
Undecided: 16
That’s a surprisingly strong showing by Thompson, who served in the House from 1988 to 1994, and narrowly lost a comeback attempt against Republican Chris Chocola in Indiana’s 2nd District in 2002. The poll also shows her in a strong position to win the Democratic primary:
Jill Long Thompson: 41
Richard Young: 16
Jim Schellinger: 10
Daniels still has over a year to turn this ship around, but he’s showing a great deal of weakness this far out. Perhaps Indiana voters are realizing that Bush’s man is not theirs.
(Hat-tip: Blue Indiana)
…. using the slogan “My Man Mitch” anymore — and that was plastered EVERYWHERE during the 2004 election. It’s going to be tough but very possible, and even with a competitive three-way primary here, Indiana Democrats seem to be united and willing to support whoever wins the primary. As I’ve said before, I’m sort-of leaning towards Schellinger, but would be happy with any of them. And we have a relatively early primary here (in May), so we’ll be united behind a candidate going into the summer.
out of 2008 and 2010 with over 30 governor mansions. That would give us the gerrymandering edge over Republicans, (Since they have had the gerrymandering edge over us for the past 10 years).
Wisconsin could easily be 6-2 Democrats over Republicans if you cut Milwaukee in two and mixed it up with District 1. If you look at the map now, it looks like the Republicans made the attempt to “Contain” Milwaukee and its Liberality.
One more seat out of the 3 we don’t have. That’s just in one small state. This is huge.
Looking at the Governor prospects over the next four elections (2007, 2008, 2009, 2010)
2007: It looks like Kentucky and Louisiana will wash each other out. That means Democrats will maintain a 28-22 advantage over Republicans going into the 2008 elections.
2008: Deleware and North Carolina are two Democrat retirements. Both will be maintainable. Both will sport decent candidates as of the current outlook.
Main pickup opportunities are Missouri and Indiana. Both will be playing unpopular incumbents.
2009: Open seat in Virginia while Jon Corzine runs for reelection. We may lose Virginia. If we pickup two and lose one, we will be now sitting at a 29-21 advantage.
2010: Cluster _____ – 10 Retiring Democrats and 8 Retiring Republicans.
Ones that stick out as possible turnovers:
Republicans – CA, HI, SD, RI
Democrats – AZ, KS, OK, TN, WY
I wonder what kind of coattails would ripple through IN were Bayh to get tapped as HRCs running mate?