SSP Daily Digest: 4/20

Senate:

• HI-Sen: Very slow fundraising quarters from Reps. Mazie Hirono and Colleen Hanabusa, despite Dan Akaka’s retirement announcement on March 2. Hirono raised around $100K and has $291K on hand, while Hanabusa took in a mere $33K and has only $72K in the bank.

More interestingly, despite Ed Case’s attempts at rapprochement, Sen. Dan Inouye still has hard feelings about Case’s primary challenge to Akaka in 2006 – and he didn’t hesitate to say so in a recent interview. He all but said that Case lied to his face when he asked him lo those many years ago if he’d run against Akaka, and then added a few remarks that made it sounds like Case had definitely not succeeded in making amends. So unless Inouye is playing some weirdly deep game here, then it looks like my fears that he’d subtly back Case seem unfounded. Good.

• KY-Sen: I don’t know if I care about this, or whether it even matters, but glibertarian maniac Rand Paul filed for re-election yesterday. I guess this means he thinks the United States won’t collapse into anarchy by 2016, but he’s probably still hoarding kruggerands (and toilet paper) just to be on the safe side.

• MN-Sen: It’s sort of easy to forget that Amy Klobuchar is up for re-election this cycle. Dedicated and hard-working, she doesn’t showboat and is a consummate team player. The fact that she crushed in her debut campaign with 58% of the vote and no Republican opponents loom even in the distant horizon definitely have the effect of putting this race on the mental back burner. But true to form, she’s taking her campaign very seriously, raising $1 million in Q1 and holding on to $2.5 mil in the bank.

• NJ-Sen: Is Republican biotech millionaire John Crowley thinking about a Senate bid – again? Roll Call notes that Crowley is stepping down as CEO of his pharma company, which could be a sign he’s interested in taking on Sen. Bob Menendez. But for some reason, the article fails to point out that Crowley was heavily recruited to run against Sen. Frank Lautenberg in 2008, and backed out at the last moment – twice. He was also talked about for a gubernatorial run in 2009 (which he obviously didn’t pull the trigger on). So we’ll see if he has the fire in the belly to actually do something this time.

• TX-Sen: Did you know that there’s already a declared Democrat in the race? I didn’t, but Some Dude Sean Hubbard is apparently running.

• WA-Sen: Sen. Maria Cantwell raised $1.2 million in Q1 and has about the same amount in the bank.

Gubernatorial:

• KY-Gov: Gov. Steve Beshear raised an impressive $1.3 million in the first three months of the year and has $3.3 million on hand.

• WV-Gov: Treasurer John Perdue is up what I think is the first negative ad of the Dem primary. He principally after Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin for taking money from utility companies who have charged jacked-up prices, accusing him (and also Natalie Tennant and Rick Thompson) of being “in the pocket” of the big energy firms. Using smokestacks as negative imagery in a state like West Virginia is certainly an unusual choice, given how many people there rely on “smokestack industries” for their livelihoods. But I guess whoever wins this multi-way primary is expecting to do so with only a relatively small plurality.

House:

• AZ-06: We previously mentioned that Republican ex-Rep. Matt Salmon was thinking about a bid to reclaim his old House seat, with Jeff Flake running for Senate, and now he’s made it official. Salmon, a member of the GOP’s class of ’94, honored a term-limit pledge and declined to run for re-election in 2000. However, he did run and lose against Janet Napolitano in the governor’s race in 2002.

• FL-14: This seems unexpected: Chauncey Goss, son of former Congressman and CIA Director Porter Goss, says he’s thinking about challenging Rep. Connie Mack in the Republican primary. Goss acknowledges that such a fight would be an “uphill battle,” but also suggests that he could wind up running in an open seat. It sounds like he thinks that a new seat could be drawn by splitting Lee County (currently the bulk of the 14th CD), but I still wonder if Mack might wind up retiring. (By the way, the current 14th was in fact the elder Goss’s seat before he was tapped to run the CIA in 2004.)

• IA-04: Ex-Gov. Tom Vilsack told a gathering of state Senate Dems that they should “stay tuned” regarding his wife’s political ambitions. That sounds to me like Christie Vilsack is very much leaning toward a run against Republican nutter Steve King. Tom also promised the race would be a “holy war,” a phrase which I sure as hell hope he a) doesn’t repeat for public consumption and b) means that Christie plans on seriously taking King the woodshed.

• MI-11, MI-Sen (?): The AP canvassed all 15 House incumbents in Michigan, and all but one confirmed they were seeking re-election. The holdout? 11th CD Republican Thad McCotter, who is in his fifth term. I’ve hesitantly flagged this item as MI-Sen as well, since it’s possible that McCotter is hedging because he’s thinking about challenging Sen. Debbie Stabenow, though he hasn’t really been talked about much.

• NM-01: Dem state Sen. Tim Keller, only 33 years old, says he won’t seek Rep. Martin Heinrich’s open House seat but will instead seek re-election next year.

• NY-10: Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries, who hasn’t ruled out a primary challenge to Rep. Ed Towns, says in a new interview that he wants the chance to serve alongside Barack Obama. So that means he’s either a) gotta run next year b) run in 2014 or c) get the Constitution amended.

Other Races:

• IN-SoS: It looks like Republicans have found a pretty simple way out of the Charlie White mess: change the law. If White, the Republican Secretary of State who is currently under indictment, gets removed from office, the next-highest vote-getter in the last election, Democrat Vop Osili, would take his place. But a bill moving through the state lege would give the governor the power to appoint a replacement instead. (It also would let the GOP avoid any related fallout from having recorded zero valid votes in the SoS contest, a race to which many other electoral perks are tied.)  Sucky for Dems, but whatcha gonna do.

• NJ-St. Sen.: Republicans are challenging Olympian Carl Lewis’s residency status, trying to get him thrown off the ballot. Lewis says he’s owned homes in New Jersey since 2005, but has voted and paid taxes in California until last year. The Secretary of State will rule by Thursday, but that decision can be appealed.

• Philly Mayor: This is definitely unusual. Former Mayor John Street just changed his party registration from “Democrat” to “independent,” which could allow him to challenge Mayor Michael Nutter for his old job, something Street refused to rule out. Also unexpectedly, Street’s wacky ex-con brother Milton, who is in fact running against Nutter in the Dem primary, got three big union endorsements last week. Seems impossible to imagine him winning next month, though, no?

• WI Recall: As expected, petitions were filed against Sheila Harsdorf yesterday, making her the fourth Republican state Senator to achieve this dubious status. And in more good news, state Rep. Fred Clark is planning an announcement for Thursday, very likely to declare a run against Luther Olsen, against whom petitions were filed on Monday. On the flipside, Republicans say they will file signatures in three Dem-held districts this week, but time is running out for them: Their deadlines are mostly April 25 & 26 (ours aren’t due until May 2).

Grab Bag:

• DCCC: I’m getting kind of tired of these “DCCC launches campaign against 25 Republicans” (and the mirror images from the NRCC), mostly because I think the amounts being spent are quite small, but anyway, here’s another one, this time about Medicare.

• Passings: William Donald Schaefer, the iconic four-term Democratic mayor of Baltimore and two-term governor of Maryland, died on Monday at the age of 89. The Baltimore Sun has wall-to-wall coverage of Schaefer’s passing, whose legendary career is hard to summarize, but you can start with the obituary at the first link.

Redistricting Roundup:

• California: Newspaper editorial pages are usually filled with some of the worst goo-goo anti-gerrymandering handwringing, so I found this op-ed by George Skelton in the LA Times to be particularly delightful. Skelton wryly observes that California Dems can’t get a tax deal done with Republicans because a key tool in their arsenal – offering to draw recalcitrant legislators good districts, and threatening them with bad ones – has been taken out of their hands. In other words, like a lot of California’s supposedly well-meaning ballot initiatives, the independent redistricting commission is also having some unintended consequences. In the end, Skelton seems to come down on the side of the commission anyway, but I think he’s right: When you limit legislators’ ability to legislate, you limit their ability to do good things as well as bad.

• Iowa: We’re done: Iowa is now the third state to complete a new congressional map, with Gov. Terry Brandstad signing off on the plans yesterday. At the bottom of the linked article, you’ll also find a list of all state House and Senate incumbents who have been thrown together in the same district.

• Missouri: Some interesting backstory on the Dem side of redistricting in Missouri. Apparently, things got nasty between Russ Carnahan and Lacy Clay just a couple of weeks ago: Carnahan asked Clay (and Emmanuel Cleaver, MO’s other Dem member of the House) to help him ask Gov. Jay Nixon to veto the state legislature’s new maps which throw Clay and Carnahan into one district together. (The seat would be heavily black, which would favor Clay.) Clay refused, leading to a heated moment on the House floor, but now apparently Carnahan has agreed not to run against him in a primary. Instead, Carnahan is supposedly being pushed toward a run in what would become the new 3rd CD, which at present is largely Todd Akin’s district. That seat could open up if Akin runs for Senate, which I’d currently say is more likely than not.

Republicans, however, have not made any peace agreements and in fact appear to be in meltdown mode. Yesterday we mentioned that Republican leaders and congressmembers were gathering to discuss the impasse between competing maps, a meeting which reportedly became “acrimonious.” I’ll let Jo Mannies and Jason Rosenbaum of the St. Louis Beacon summarize the key points of contention:

The Republican members of Congress generally want the Senate to drop consideration of its map and take up the map already passed by the Missouri House. But Senate leaders dislike some of the House’s proposed boundaries. They also say they don’t have the votes for a veto-proof majority of the House map.

I strongly suggest reading the entire Beacon article if you’re interested in this topic – it’s definitely one of the sharper tradmed pieces I’ve seen on redistricting in general this year. In any event, Republicans want a shot at over-riding a possible Nixon veto before the current legislative session ends on May 13, so time is running short here.

• New Jersey: With the Garden State losing a seat this decade, Aaron Blake runs through five different scenarios involving various incumbent-vs-incumbent matchups.

• Oklahoma: Yesterday, the state House unanimously passed a new congressional map (which makes very minimal changes to the existing district lines). Given that all five members of Congress have signed off on the plan, I’d be surprised if it doesn’t breeze through the Senate as well – but we’ve already had more than our share of redistricting surprises this cycle, so I’ve stopped calling my bookie.

• Virginia: A committee in the Republican-held House made some minor tweaks to their map, which Gov. Bob McDonnell had previously vetoed. I’m sure this is just cosmetic b.s., because McDonnell really only cares about the Dem map that the Senate produced. In McDonnell’s world, the first is a work of unparalleled bipartisanshippy beauty, while the second is a hideous Demmycrat gerrymander FROM HELL. That’s fookin’ politics for ya.

418 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 4/20”

  1. Holt is one of my favorite members of Congress, and I don’t want to see him put in a really difficult seat. That said, he deserves our support if he’s in a tough spot.  

  2. So in three states its officially finished:

    Arkansas 1-2-1

    Iowa 2-1-1

    Louisiana 1-5-0

    In three others its all done except the yelling:

    Indiana 2-6-1

    Missouri 2-5-1

    Oklahoma 1-4-0

    Total so far:

    9-23-4

  3. Christie’s job approval down to 47-46, i.e., down to break-even.

    Obama’s at 51-45 in New Jersey, clearly better than Christie.

    And New Jersey voters favor Obama over Christie for President by a big 52-39.

    Link:  http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x129…

  4. Please god let the Street family lose and take their 3-ring circus to another city, no, another state, no, another country.  Please.

    I have no idea what these unions are doing endorsing street.  I’m sure they benefited more under John Street because he was corrupt and served during an economy when things were going better and no one cared about deficits at any level of government, but I have no idea why they’d endorse his convict brother.

    On the plus side, the election isn’t that low turnout and union votes are not a 1000% uniform voting block anywhere (as we all know from, most notably, the 2004 Federal elections).  I’d imagine we’ll see about 300K votes in the general and about 80+% of that will be non-Republican, so I think Nutter is not true danger.

    1. He’s too liberal for the state. He’s kept a low profile, so I question how many voters really know about how liberal he is. I’m still pretty confident Obama will win in 2012, and that should mean Republicans have the advantage in the off-year election. Approval ratings mean nothing for 2014 at this point.

      I agree Kagan is probably as vulnerable, but I think Franken might be in better shape than either Begich or Kagan, just because Minnesota generally skews liberal, and Franken has been a pretty workhorse Senator.  

  6. No link to the poll itself, but numbers revealed by Dave Catanese here:  http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

    Bottom line for Begich:  a sparking 57-33 job approval.  I never would’ve guessed that.  Granted this is predictably less good than Don Young’s 63-32, or Lisa Murkowski’s 71-27.  But 57-33 in Alaska for a Democrat who voted for health care reform, the stimulus, and everything else Democrats pushed the past couple years?  Wow, I’m thrilled.

    1. is when you pass from being a “fighter” to being a bully. The difference? I think it all depends on whether you’re seen to be fighting effectively for popular policies. “Fighting” to, e.g., cut Medicaid, isn’t going to win you many friends.  

      1. 10th: Bell County

        31st: Williamson County, but primarily the fact that it doesn’t take in any part of Travis that has 1) population and 2) liberal voters.

        22nd: This is the likeliest to flip, but Fort Bend County is still Republican leaning.

        25th: Western Travis county is the most Democratic area here, and even that is only 50-50.  

        1. Ted Stevens may have been the father of modern Alaska, but he was also convicted of felonies right before the election. Alaskan voters may vote for some outliers, but tell me the last time a state voted in a convicted felon (even though it was later overturned).

          The fact that Begich barely won is indicative of how Conservative is at the state level. You combine the fact the midterm election will likely be at least slightly anti-Obama in 2014 (unless its an anamoly like 1998), and the fact Begich seems to be voting as a down-the-line Democrat I think he’s going to be in serious trouble unless Joe Miller or some other like lunatic is nominated.

          I know I’m not going to convice you DC, and you’re right more often than not. I also am not neccesarily questioning the polling result. But I think it’s way too early to reach any conclusions about Alaska based on polls, whereas I think based on history and the voting patterns of the state, especially during midterms, I think you can.

          Anyway, it will be three years before we see who is right.  

  7. : Also unexpectedly, Street’s wacky ex-con brother Milton, who is in fact running against Nutter in the Dem primary, got three big union endorsements last week. Seems impossible to imagine him winning next month, though, no?

    Milton’s a joke; the unions are just pulling an Anyone But Nutter move as a protest against a protracted labor relations situation here.

      1. You nailed it! Take solace in the fact he is still winning even with upside down job approval.

          1. I do not think we should be freaking out about Holperin.  People pretty much expected the efforts to get enough signatures and so did he, as he has begin airing some TV ads, so yeah he has not been caught off guard.

            Aslo the Recall Daring committee is planning a rally to make a “BIG” announcement tomorrow, so that suggests that they have reached their goal.  

        2. Look at the crop of Alaska pols people were looking at in 2010.

          Palin – ugh

          Miller – eek

          Murkoski – somewhat liked, lingering nepotism tinge though (most seem to have gotten over it)

          Young – corrupt but we’ll deal with it

          Parnell – meh to blah

          McAdams – new and not polarizing

          It’d be rough going for him to win statewide, Begich really had a tremendous effort to win.  Tony Knowles was able to springborad from a bigger post (moyor of Anchorage) to governor.  

          To me McAdams might end up being the next Ethan Berkowitz, the Dem’s best candidate but unlikely to win without help from GOP scandal/turmoil.

          3. if/when she retires in 2018. She’s young enough that the extra two years won’t mean much if, for some reason, it’s better for her to wait.  

          4. Checks all the boxes we need. African American Female elected attorney general. I was looking for such a person for all of the last 2 years during Obama’s first two appointments. Throw in he being a strong progressive ideologue, she can be a real force for the left on the court.

            If Kagen was supposed to be the counter-weight to Roberts, Harris would be the anti-Alito/Scalia.

      2. Look carefully at the numbers, the trendline conspiracy provided is from January, not anytime in 2010.  Obama had a bump in January/early February that receded, everyone knows that, but he’s no worse off than last year.

        Not only am I still not worried, but I’m actually more confident than ever before.  The Ryan budget gives us THE contrast of the 2012 election.  It puts the GOP in a box in a bad way and gives us a clear advantage.  And on top of that, the chaos in the Republican nomination battle is making them all look even smaller.  All this can change quickly if Romney and/or Pawlenty rise to the top come January, but right now neither one is anything close to a frontrunner, and their party is a disaster all things considered.

        Obama is in really good shape.

  8. I think that this election may very well define the ceiling for a dfl candidate. The republican ceiling is pretty well defined as being in the mid to upper 40s, but I think Amy will blow the doors off of her inaugural margin (remember, she did run against a very serious republican in 06 for an open seat.) Also, if the republicans nominate an all out bagger, or someone from the far fight socially, they may not make a play at Minnesota at all. That would be absolutely devastating down ballot for republicans. If Obama flirt with 60, and klobuchar gets 65 (that is my current over/under for her right now) republicans may be wittled down lower than 09 levels. Of course this all depends on what the courts draw for maps. I just get the feeling than 12 will be a bloodbath for the gop in Minnesota, regardless of national trends.

  9. The GRIT have released a new Texas redistricting map that splits Travis County in 5 ways (removing ANY chance of a Democratic representative there). It also splits Bexar County 6 ways (though there the Democrats would have 3 of the seats).

    http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/

    1. The Democrats have to settle for whatever the Republicans give us.

      The above comment was a “if the Democrats were magically in charge fantasy land” comment. A redistricting plan that cracks Travis two ways is not a dummymander. A redistricting plan that cracks it three ways is. A redistricting plan that cracks it four or more makes all of those districts about R+5-R+8 (this is the optimal Republican plan). They know they won’t get away with that in court though because of the ramifications that it would cause in San Antonio related to the VRA, so they’ll always put the Dem vote sink in Austin for Doggett.

      In San Antonio, the Republicans pretty much have to have two Democratic seats wholly or mostly in Bexar County alone.

    1. You know I really wasn’t worried about Obama until recently.  I figured if he was still leading these bozos in 2010 that he would be fine, but somehow his numbers are continuing to errode even as the economy outside of gas is getting better.  I’m starting to get worried.

  12. Last night, The Assembly deadlocked on the state budget. And so far, the understanding in Carson is that any redistricting deal is contingent upon a budget deal (or vice versa?). So if the knock-down-drag-out budget battle royale rages on to Summer Special Session, will redistricting be forced upon The Nevada Supreme Court?

    I’m starting to think a map like this may be more of a real possibility.

    1. And i don’t want to be becoem the new version of that poster who predicted we were going to lose 100 seats in the house last cycle.

      My points are (1) that the eventual demographic change in Texas will be slow and probably won’t be hugely relevant in the 2012-2020 house race cycles, (2) I still think are up in the air more than most.

      I will re-post something I posted in a convo with b.j and markhanna the other day, I think going after the college towns is as good a starting point as any, if not better.  I’m far more confident in maybe trying to turn ome of these college towns blue-r than some other strategies, especially the statewide ones.  

      My main example was Univ of North Texas in Denton, which i think has been very GOP over the years.  UNT has grown a ton in recent years and it seems like it will eventually become the 2nd biggest school in the state.  Given how major university centers often become Democratic bases, I’d love to get this moving ASAP vs supporting anyone statewide (but that’s a whole different convo)

  13. Sadly, there’s probably a “voter intent” argument to be made for the bill that’s making its way through the house, considering the fact that White won with 57% of the vote, and Osli only got 37% and won exactly two counties in the entire state (There was a strong Libertarian who accounted for the other 5%). I grant that the GOP should’ve known better than to nominate a felon, but it’s also not exactly democratic to just randomly appoint a guy who got 37% of the vote. Not that the GOP wouldn’t do the same if the parties were switched, but also how many Democrats have you seen accused of vote fraud who ended up getting elected anyway?

    1. I watch the Senate floor all day, and few people are as good advocates for their state as Begich. He has a strong business background that he uses extremely well in speeches and hearings to advocate for public investments that will benefit Alaska…I wish half the Dems in our caucus could message like him.

      Plus, is there anyone more valuable to the caucus than Begich? The man’s taken some gutsy votes considering his state.    

  14. I know that this is off-topic but I just wanted to post it here and any of the mods can feel free to delete this but I was able to attend President Obama’s town hall meeting yesterday in Annandale, Virginia. It was a total amazing experience that I am still on cloud nine from. I was able to get an invitation through the local Democratic party as I am an active volunteer that they kept me in mind for a last minute opportunity. A few things just to let you guys know about for future events if you ever get the chance to go:

    1. Get there early as seating is first come, first served. I was row one in front of him. Sadly the cameras were behind me so only the back of my head was on TV.

    2. If you want an autograph bring a book and put a sticker on the book with your name. After he shakes hands you can give it to either secret service or Reggie Love who will get him to sign it backstage. I got my book signed.

    3. Volunteer and hopefully people will recognize it for events like that. Though I am lucky to be right outside of DC and in a major swing state so my chances are a lot better of getting visits to my community than you guys in NY, TX and CA for example.

    4. Have fun and remember the experience. I know I will!

  17. This poll is registered voters but again, they all seem to be saying the same thing whatever the sample. Reelect looks better than November, 37-44 now, 36-48 then. But the top two potential Republican candidates are doing better than they were in January.

    Romney 46-45 (51-38)

    Huckabee 48-43 (50-38)

    Palin 56-34 (56-30)

    Trump 54-38

    http://maristpoll.marist.edu/4…

    1. And I think it’s smart to be liberal about designating swing districts versus GOP or Dem ones in this type of generalization.

      1. Kamala Harris is literally beloved by both the base of the state and by the national media. She’d be a great candidate. I think she’s got to be considered future presidential material.

      2. If she wins reelection by 4 points she has close to zero chance of winning a Senate primary.

        Likewise, asserting her chances of winning by the same margin as other candidates is utter fantasy.  The only way she does that is by changing the minds of approximately one million voters.  It can be done, but assuming she wins next time by anything more than a narrow margin is absurd at this point.

    1. were in those seats before 2010? We have obviously shown that this is a swing district, and that this recall will be a test of the current climate to see how far we’ve swung back.

    1. I think that you are largely correct about the white vote in Texas. Although I suspect you might be overestimating their Republican-ness by a few points. Instead of 75-25, 70-30 may be more realistic. Ofcourse this is still much more Republican than the 60-40 (and sometimes 55-45) split of whites during the late 1990s.

      This decade has seen some interesting factors that all mask the natural tendencies of the white vote to some extent. In 2000 and 2004 you had Bush. 2002 was a good year for Republicans, but above that the major Democratic candidates were mostly minority (before the minority vote was actually important). In 2006 the gubernatorial race was four way. In 2008 you had a black man atop the ticket and in 2010 there was massive disproportionally Republican turnout.  

        1. the first place was her hurdle. The next time around should be a lot easier. Of course if she looses she won’t be the prohibitive favorite, but the chance of her loosing reelection is pretty low right now. Besides the fact that Harris has been getting nothing but positive press since being sworn in.  

    2. Not sure whether this is a life-cycle or age cohort effect but it is notable that the 2008 exit poll showed hispanics under 30 voting for Obama by 70-30 margins and older hispancs voting for him by 60-40 margins.

      It’s also notable that both the 2008 and 2010 exit polls showed Obama and White winning voters under 30, staying competitive with voters between 30-45 losing voters between 45-65 and getting crushed with the over 65 crowd. Both elections would have been relatively competitive without the over-65 vote. Interestingly the age gap was due much less to age cohort differences between the voting habits within racial groups as it was to the different racial composition of different voter groups (ie young whites don’t vote all that different than old whites but the under 30s were about 50% white while the 45-65 were like 65% white and the over 65s were over 75% white).

      I don’t really put all that much stock into exit polls but it is an interesting data point all and all.  

      1. But it isn’t like they polled right before the speech and then again right after. He had already dropped back into negative territory before last week according to other polls.

          2. Prosser was ordered first on the ballot and since Democrats are ordered first in Wisconsin (and Abele was also ordered first) people might have assumed that he was the Democrat.

            In addition, yeah turnout in minority areas, especially Hispanic areas is depressing.  In the majority Hispanic assembly seat, there was a very contentious primary for an open seat. It only attracted around 1,500 voters total.  

          3. From you signature, I am guessing you are in Texas, so they only thing you can do is to give your money.  Here is the Act Blue directory for the Wisconsin State Senate Democrats (updated as candidates come forward): https://secure.actblue.com/dir…

            I would suggest giving to Holperin because his the most vulnerable Dem, Harsdorf’s  (SD 10) opponent because that requires advertising in the Twin Cities and Eau Claire markets, and Darling’s opponent (SD 8)  because that is the Milwaukee market.  

  22. Chauncey?  Really?  I mean, I know Connie Mack doesn’t have any room to talk about prissy first names, but Chauncey?  I hope that guy went by a nickname in elementary school.  I can’t see him knocking off Mack in a primary, but if he steps down, then I would think he’d have the best shot at it.  Which I can’t say I love – should we just call FL-14 the nepotism seat?  Mack III had it then it went to Gross then Mack IV and now Gross Jr wants it?  Does that mean that when he steps down, it would got to Mack V?

  24. when Boxer retires might be Rep. Judy Chu. She was able to win election in a majority Hispanic seat held by Secretary Solis. Or for that matter maybe even Solis herself. She’ll be out of a job in 2016 unless another Democrat is elected and keeps her in the cabinet.

    1. Maybe in DavidNYC’s alternate universe where Bredesen announced against Corker there’s a Justice Kay Hagan who gets referred to as Justice Kagan.

  25. Iowa primaries. The people have spoken Clinton, Run! I wish PPP polled other women instead of Cory Booker. I still insist it’s going to be a woman.

    2. In MA it was done retroactively AFTER Ted Kennedy passed away to give the Dems an extra vote in the Senate to pass Obama’s Healthcare plan.

  27. That’s one of the most intriguing digest items for me since Knollenberg’s announcement of his exploratory committee. (What can I say, I have parochial interests.) I can’t imagine McCotter running for Senate, but whether he retires or runs for higher office, I’d be happy to see him go.

    The part about it that intrigues me the most is the implications for Michigan redistricting. I’ve been experimenting in Dave’s App today to see what the Republicans might be able to manage if they don’t have to maintain a district for him. It hasn’t helped as much I thought it would. Any one have ideas about what the Republican could try without maintaining the current MI-11?

  29. http://www.washingtonpost.com/…

    That is nearly 150 percent needed, so a huge number indeed.  I am personally very pleased because this is the district I have been working on this spring and hopefully I will be doing a lot of door-knocking and phone-calling for her opponent this summer.  

    1. I know we’re talking about the Senate seat, but I wanted to comment on future presidential races as well.

    2. As she’ll only be 68 by Election Day 2032, after Presidents Obama, Schweitzer, and Gillibrand each serve out their successive two terms apiece.

      Hell, I might vote for her, assuming California hasn’t crumbled into the Pacific Ocean by then.

    1. since her win and even before she has been discussed as a possible future senatorial candidate. Also being that she is the AG of California automatically puts her at least near the top of the list.

  32. It is actually very old news but I just found out about it. Vop Osili is running for city council. I guess this means he doesn’t think much of his chances at taking over for White. He announced well before Republicans talked about changing the rules as well.  

  33. I was just browsing through the precinct results in Milwaukee and the main reason why Kloppenburg underperformed so badly was that the race was non-partisan and many low information voters in African-American neighborhoods voted for Prosser.

    As an example Ward 180 gave Barrett 99% of the vote but only gave Kloppenburg 81%. Turnout was 50% of 2010, which isn’t too poor but enough to make that kind of underperformance even worse.

    It was even worse in Hispanic neighborhoods. In Ward 211, Barrett got 77%, while Kloppenburg only got 58%. Turnout was only 38% of 2010.

    I’ll probably make a diary post of this.  

  36. He’s leading the charge for independent redistricting in the Assembly, and he’s taken the lead on other pieces of legislation.

    His Assembly district though is way to the west of the main portion of Town’s CD, which is in Eastern Brooklyn. Jeffries lives in Western Brooklyn

  37. that the city of Bloomington is quickly surpassing other cities in Indiana. It has already passed Gary, in a year it will pass Hammond, and if population trends continue as they have been it will pass South Bend as the 4th largest city in Indiana with a population over 100,000. Evansville is also on a downwards trajectory and could be surpassed by Bloomington next decade. The only areas growing population wise drastically are Bloomington, Metro Indy, and Fort Wayne. I don’t see Carmel or Fishers being able to sustain their growth any further. There is no market for what they were selling before the recession. I think this has huge implications for the political future of Indiana. Considering through out most of Bloomington’s history there has been a steady growth. Now there is a fast paced increase in population.

    Top 12 Indiana Cities

    Indianapolis: 829,718 (Slight Growth)

    Fort Wayne: 253,691 (Huge Growth)

    Evansville: 117,429 (Slight Loss)

    South Bend: 101,168 (Slight Loss)

    Hammond: 80,830 (Slight Loss)

    Bloomington: 80,405 (Slight Loss; In the beginning of the decade – Huge Growth; In the last half of the decade)

    Gary: 80,294 (Huge Loss)

    Carmel: 79,191 (Huge Growth; Slow down after recession?)

    Fishers: 76,794 (Huge Growth; Slow down after recession?)

    Muncie: 70,085 (Slight Growth)

    Lafayette: 67,140 (Huge Growth)

    Terra Haute: 60,785 (Slight Growth)

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