Latest SUSA poll gives Breshear a 60-36 lead over Fletcher. The question is will this looming landslide help the Democrats in legislative races?
And it would be nice to take out Mitch McConnell next year.
9 thoughts on “KY-Gov: you can stick a fork in it”
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Holding the Governorship gives us a go-to guy for fundraisers statewide. This should help Democrats up and down the ticket.
Fletcher hurts Republicans (Corruption), while Beshear helps Democrats (they have a candidate who is going to win).
It will play off downticket and push Democrats forward in their aspirations for Kentucky.
Kentucky has six House seats, and the Repubs hold 4 out of 6. Changing that ratio should be almost as important as picking up another seat in the Senate, and perhaps more do-able.
The Netroots helped put Ben Chandler (D) in KY-06, in a special election in 2004 (a district Bush later carried by 58%. Then in 2006, John Yarmuth (D) defeated Ann Northup in the Louisville district, KY-03.
So, four to go, and the momentum is with us.
A McConnell protege, Ed Whitfield (R), holds KY-01. One of the class of ’94, he had a re-elect of nearly 60% last year. But that was last year. Bush’s approval ratings are way down, even in Kentucky, and Fletcher’s too, of course, and now McConnell’s. A fresh candidate with a fresh campaign strategy, with a strong push from a new Governor, could make a real race here.
The fresh strategy would rely on cable TV. The sprawling, gerrymandered district is impossible to cover with broadcast. Put the map against the A.C. Nielson map of Areas of Dominant Influence: The Nashville stations cover more counties than any others, so there’s a quick way to waste money on a Kentucky campaign. But not to forget to buy airtime in Evansville, Indiana; or on the Bowling Green station (though the city itself is in another district, KY-01 surrounds it on three sides), or on the Cape Girardeau, Mo/Carbondale, Ill/Paducah stations in the western end of the district. Indeed,in the eastern-most end, some voters pick up signals from Frankfort, Louisville, and Knoxville, TN. Only an all-cable media plan would allow for an affordable Democratic campaign in KY-01.
In ’06, in KY-02, some Louisville suburbs and beyond including Bowling Green, Fighting Dem Mike Weaver ran a good race. Not good enough, but he held Ron Lewis (R) to 55% after Bush got 65% in ’04. This one deserves another shot.
Last year the DCCC under Rahm Emanuel poured over a million bucks into KY-04, a 63% Bush district. They were backing Ken Lucas, a conservative former House member trying to make a comeback. Despite the millions spent, Geoff Davis (R) won almost 52% and reelection. As I learned to say in NYC, “fugetaboutit” for ’08. But wait! A wealthy doctor, Michael Kelly, has a campaign underway already. How far he’ll get beyond a good Website I dunno, but I wish him luck.
In KY-05, up in the Appalachians, Hal Rogers (R) kept the seat last year with 74%. His opponent, Ken Stepp, was an earnest Kossack who stepped up to try to fill the vacuum left by the regular Democratic Party. He still has a campaign Website, but it looks more like a blog, attacking MConnell and almost ignoring Rogers. Bush got 60%, so this would be an uphill fight for any candidate, but I think we won some 60% Bush districts in ’06, and it should be achievable in ’08.
So Kentucky Democrats will be looking at four possible House gains next year. Let’s not let those opportunities get away.