Today’s the day. Polls are open in the special elections to replace the late Reps. Paul Gillmor (OH-05) and Jo Ann Davis (VA-01).
Unfortunately, I have to catch a plane in a few hours, so posting will be slower today. However, once the polls close, we should be rolling with liveblog coverage.
If you have predictions for the results in OH-05 or VA-01, now’s your chance to post them in the comments and claim bragging rights when the returns come in exactly as you called it.
OK I really don’t know much about either race, and haven’t been able to give any virtual phone banking time either since I have been on vacation visiting my parents so I never knew when I would have any free time, but I will start it off anyway and state that I think one of the 2 will win and both will be within the 52-48, 51-49 range. In a weird way I think Forgit will be the victor, but that might just be the ironic person in me hoping it is the race that has been a lot more under the radar and that the DCCC has not helped that much, at least in comparison. But anyway like I said I don’t really know, I just wanted to start it off.
Pretty funny, I could almost sense you guys laughing at my prediction, oh well, I am sure you both are more informed than me I was just going with my gut. But I am sure we can all agree that we hope we are all wrong and that both Ds win.
Wittman 51-45-4
Compared to “Lackluster Latta”. Considering it is winter, I am guessing turnout will be less than 90,000 people.
So I am going to venture to say 50-50, Weirauch barely edges Latta in OH-05.
Meanwhile, Wittman wins 53-44-3 fairly comfortably in VA-01.
Weirauch (German: incense) can win, but even if she comes within 2 points of Latta, that is a catastrophe for the neo-geoP 🙂
If she wins, the GOP will be “incensed”
Weirauch over Latta by a few hundered votes. Think Kissel’s race last time. That close but Weirauch wins.
Forgit will do much better then expected. I say he’ll be within 5 of the Republican but I don’t know how the other guy will do so I don’t know numbers. I’ll just say 52-47.
Weinrauch wins with just 50%, a small margin over Latta.
Whittman beats Forgit 51%-46%.
If you remember 2006 Ohio looked like it would offer up a slew of seats and we only ended up picking up Ney’s. I doubt the Republican party will fare worse this year, especially with Taft off the ballot, so I a margin of 53-47 against us in OH-05 is, in my opinion, more likely. VA-01 will probably be similar 55-42-3 against us maybe?
Hope I’m wrong and maybe bad weather in Ohio will keep apathetic Republicans away from the polls. AND, we forced the NRCC to drop a nice chuck of change here so it’s a strategic victory either way.
Weirauch wins by less than 100 votes. Whittman beats Forgit 56-42.
Also my first comment over here!! Been at DKos since ’05.
I always tend a bit pessimistic on Election Days, so I might be low-balling it a bit. With no polling data (except for a few leaked internals), I am flying pretty blind here.
I am going to say Latta 52-45-3 and Wittman 53-43-4.
Like I said, pessimistic.
Latta 52% Weirauch 48%
Wittman 55% Forgit 45%
because Republicans are divided, their turnout will be low, but Democrats will be too. Impossible to predict because of this, but I’d say 52-48 Latta, and only about 90-110 thousand votes cast.
OH-05: Bad News- Latta wins 51-49
Good News- Results for Dems will be strong enough that the GOP’s chances in ’08 in the state are eviscerated. Momentum built from this race along with other sources make 01, 15, & 16 lean takeovers and 02, 05, 07, 12, & 14 Tossups.
VA-01: Whitman wins by 54-43-3
I’m going with my gut feeling based on all the good buzz I hear for the Dem candidates and the lack of buzz that I hear for the Repugs. I’m predicting upset wins for both Weirauch and Forgit.
If I have to pick the margins, I can only take a stab, but…
Weirauch 53% Latta 47%
Forgit 50.5% Wittman 49.5%
Bottomline, I’m going with all the buzz I’m hearing in the media and online as well as motivation of the backers and base. I’ve checked some wingnut blogs and heard nothing!
over at mydd they said oh was at 7:30, but what about VA?
…is as good as mine. Ohio 5, no more than 52-48 either way, turnout in the high 90,000 range. VA-1, 52-45-3, Wittman pulls it out, VA GOP is sheepish and nervous about the close margin.
Gosh, it would be great to have Robin in Congress. Here she is speaking to IBEW members last night after the final phone bank:
As for me, I’m going to be clicking “refresh” on the OH SoS site all night with a copy of the “Baseline numbers” thread printed out next to me.
another heartbreaker for the Ds.
Forgit loses by 4000 votes or so. Just close enough to make the DCCC regret not playing.
Ok, so I’m a pessimist. Anyone remember how many heartbreakers we lost in 06? Kissel, Trauner, Doolittle, Jennings, Hafen, Madrid, Wulsin, Kilroy, Kellam… it’s a good thing we had the Senate to make up for it cause the House was a mixed bag that night.
Anyway, I do think Weirauch stands a chance of winning, especially with the weather, but I don’t want to get my hopes up.