OH-05: Baseline Numbers

In 2006, Robin Weirauch earned a respectable 43% of the vote in OH-05, while Paul Gillmor took 57%. As you watch the returns coming in this evening, keep these county-by-county results handy:






















































































County Weirauch ’06 Gillmor ’06
Ashland 1,895 (45%) 2,350 (55%)
Crawford 6,715 (42%) 9,405 (58%)
Defiance 5,851 (45%) 7,192 (55%)
Fulton 6,754 (43%) 8,939 (57%)
Henry 4,917 (43%) 6,468 (57%)
Huron 7,583 (43%) 10,093 (57%)
Lucas 3,197 (48%) 3,465 (52%)
Mercer 1,094 (32%) 2,348 (68%)
Paulding 3,349 (45%) 4,099 (55%)
Putnam 4,628 (33%) 9,350 (67%)
Sandusky 9,481 (42%) 12,942 (58%)
Seneca 8,054 (40%) 11,892 (60%)
Van Wert 3,689 (36%) 6,586 (64%)
Williams 5,650 (44%) 7,101 (56%)
Wood 21,692 (49%) 22,258 (51%)
Wyandot 1,406 (37%) 2,410 (63%)

In the comments a few weeks ago, Sean ran the numbers:


The key to winning this district



Is to win by about 57%-43% in Wood County, which is a swing county and casts about 18% of the vote. Robin got 49% here in 2006, when she won 43% district wide. She then has to run about even in nominally Republican Sandusky county, which casts about 10% of the vote. The other county that she must win by about 53%-47% is Huron county, which casts about 8% of the vote. She got 43% here in 2006. The last is Seneca county, which is leans Republican, but not heavily. She needs to get about 55% here. Finally, she has to do reasonably well in the rest of the district, where she must hold Latta to no more than 54%.

Definitely something to make note of as we watch the returns.

13 thoughts on “OH-05: Baseline Numbers”

  1. How about Sandusky County? (I have a friend from Clyde who voted for Robin today)

    Sandusky County seems to me to be a bellwether as of late. Strickland, Brown, Dann, Corday and Brunner all won it last year and won statewide. Republican statewide candidates all carried it in 2002. Bush won it twice and Clinton won it in 1996. Robin’s 2006 margin was just about where she landed district-wide.  

  3. I have read that being on the top of list of candidates (As Weirauch will be now, which she wasn’t in 2008 – By Democrats winning the governor’s mansion in 2006) that creates a two point swing.  So where she lost every county in 2006, she would have tied Gilmor in Lucas and would have beaten Gillmor in Wood county.   Interesting to think about.  

    You should have done us the favor and given us the final results…

    Gillmor – 129,813 – 56.8%

    Weirauch – 98,544 – 43.2%

    Swing that two points…

    54.8% – 46.2%

    That would make the numbers

    125,140 – 103,217

  4. Sandusky County had 1,100 votes.

    Wood County had 3,300 votes.

    In the ’06 election, the ratio between the two was 1.9.  This time, it’s 3.

    But if you weigh the data appropriately, “42%” (the counties that would average to 42%) consists of 85% of the ’06 vote and “49% “is 15%, meaning a ratio of 0.176.

    So assuming that these two counties’ early votes are representative of the entire district (an absurd assumption, but there’s not much else to go on with the dearth of data), this ratio is increased to 0.276, Wood Co. is up to 21.6% (and Sandusky is 78.4%).

    And that means… Weirauch gains half a percent, assuming that turnout demographics are the same (wasn’t that anticlimactic!), and a Glmour voter is a Latta voter.  Both of these assumptions are of course absurd as well, but at least Weirauch has gone up…

  5. Surprise for Democrats in OH-5?

    There’s a special election today in Ohio’s 5th congressional district and the Cleveland Plain Dealer notes “deep pockets are emptying with last-minute contributions in the race” to determine the successor to the late Rep. Paul Gillmor (R-OH) “and will signal whether this traditional GOP stronghold has gone Democratic.”

    CQ rates the district Safe Republican, but according to The Politico, an internal poll conducted for Bob Latta’s (R) campaign last week showed him trailing Amy Weirauch (D) by four points.

  6. is where Bowling Green State University is, which probably accounts for it being slightly more Democratic-leaning than the rest of the district. Seems like we’d need a lot of student turnout above the usual numbers there to get over the top in the district as a whole.

    I just checked the BGSU website; they’re in session, but it’s the middle of finals week, so that may not be any better than if they weren’t in session in terms of getting students to the polls.

  9. Weirauch is outperforming 2006 performance in Seneca.

    46% this time vs. 40% in 2004.

    That could get us a victory if numbers stick like this tonight.

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