DCCC Targeting Forty GOP-Held Seats

The subscription-only Roll Call bagged an interview with DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen last week. Van Hollen explained that the D-Trip has plans (at least, as of now) to target forty Republican-held seats. Frustratingly, Roll Call didn’t reproduce the list online, but did include it in their print edition. Fortunately, were able to snag it from p. 15 of the PDF version on their website (note: this link will probably not point to the proper issue as of Jan. 7th, 2008):

District Incumbent Leading Dem Candidate 2006 D %age 2004 Bush %age
AK-AL Don Young Ethan Berkowitz 40 61
AZ-01   Ann Kirkpatrick 43 54
AZ-03 John Shadegg Bob Lord 38 58
CA-04 John Doolittle Charlie Brown* 46 61
CA-26 David Dreier Russ Warner 38 55
CA-50 Brian Bilbray Nick Leibham 44 55
CO-04 Marilyn Musgrave Betsy Markey 43 58
CT-04 Christopher Shays Jim Himes 48 46
FL-08 Ric Keller Competitive primary 46 55
FL-09 Gus Bilirakis John Dicks 44 57
FL-13 Vern Buchanan Christine Jennings* 50 56
FL-24 Tom Feeney Suzanne Kosmas 42 55
ID-01 Bill Sali Competitive primary 45 69
IL-10 Mark Kirk Competitive primary 47 47
IL-11   Debbie Halvorson 45 53
IL-14   Bill Foster 40 55
MI-07 Tim Walberg Mark Schauer 46 54
MI-09 Joe Knollenberg Gary Peters 46 51
MN-03   Terri Bonoff 35 51
MN-06 Michele Bachmann Elwyn Tinklenberg 42 57
MO-06 Sam Graves Kay Barnes 36 57
NC-08 Robin Hayes Larry Kissell* 50 54
NJ-03   John Adler 41 51
NJ-07   Linda Stender* 48 53
NM-01   Martin Heinrich 50 48
NM-02   Competitive primary 40 58
NV-03 Jon Porter Robert Daskas 47 50
NY-13 Vito Fossella Domenic Recchia 43 55
NY-25 Jim Walsh Dan Maffei* 49 48
NY-26 Tom Reynolds Jonathan Powers 48 55
NY-29 Randy Kuhl Eric Massa* 49 56
OH-01 Steve Chabot Steve Driehaus 48 51
OH-02 Jean Schmidt Victoria Wulsin 49 64
OH-14 Steven LaTourette William O’Neill 39 53
OH-15   Mary Jo Kilroy* 50 50
OH-16   John Boccieri 42 54
PA-03 Phil English Competitive primary 42 53
WA-08 Dave Reichert Darcy Burner* 49 48
WV-02 Shelley Moore Capito John Unger 43 57
WY-AL   Gary Trauner* 48 69

* Denotes repeat candidate

There are a number of notable absences on this list, such as PA-06, FL-10 and VA-11. These seats are obviously already on the DCCC’s radar and will likely make it on to “official” lists sometime soon. I’m surprised that they aren’t already, though, as a little prodding might help push crumb-bums like Tom Davis and Bill Young into retirement. Hell, Young already lives in Florida – retirement is just a shuffleboard game away.

And undoubtedly, some districts will slip off this list as time passes. In fact, there’s nothing particularly special about this list except for the fact that six challengers are already (or are about to) receive an influx of DCCC aid. (Brownsox has a good roundup here.) As we all know, inclusion on last year’s various “Red to Blue” lists could mean anything from full-blown establishment support to a mere “attaboy.”

But, food for thought nonetheless. So, who should the DCCC be backing who isn’t on this list? And which races, if any, are you surprised to see here?

38 thoughts on “DCCC Targeting Forty GOP-Held Seats”

  1. Florida is rich 10, 15, 25

    Pennsylvania is missing several as well, 6, 15, 18

    A few here there as well; NJ-02, MI-11, IN-03, IN-04, MN-02, VA-10

    so yeah, that’s what I got.

  2. That is a district that we need to work early on.  The Special Election is on March 8th and the NRCC is likely going to try to rip him to shreds as soon as the February primary is over as they did with Robin Weirauch in OH-05.  One thing that would dramatically boost our chances here is nominating Barack Obama for President.  That would really deprive the NRCC from using “President Hillary” to get out their voters.  

  3. There’s a good chance of having New Mexico’s entire congressional delegation being Democratic when the elections come. With Udall taking the Senate, and the Democrats actively fighting for CD-01, 02; it would definitely be a wonderful year for New Mexico progressives 🙂

    I must say that it’s a bit surprising to see WY-AL up there. I know that we had a really close race in Wyoming last time, but the Presidential election might make it pretty hard to win up there. Still, I’m glad that Van Hollen is putting the House Democrats’ money to use and playing the offensive.

  4. VA-02 and Thelma Drake, who nearly lost in 2006, and who sits in an important swing region in Virgina.

    Other ones that are unfortunately missing: VA-10, the 3 Cuban Floridian reps, AL-03 (yet again), TX-10, MI-11, NY-03, PA-18, PA-15 (already mentioned), and perhaps NE-02 by some. Also, why have we conceded VA-04 ever since the special election in 2001?

  5. It’s the only non-Bible Belt district represented by an evangelical wingnut Republican. Scott Garrett won his election during 9/11 fever in an area that traditionally elects Republican moderates, and in a very nasty primary in which he essentially bullied the incumbent moderate R into retirement. He has one of the most extreme voting records of any member of Congress, including, I remember, massive subsidies for the oil companies, and is usually the only NJ Republican to support these kind of things. If he were from Texas or Mississippi, I’d say he was safe, but in New Jersey this sort of behavior sticks out, and I’m surprised no one’s noticed it nationally.

    While NJ-05 is the most Republican district in New Jersey, it’s still New Jersey, and I don’t see why the DCCC should be contesting Idaho (or some of the other improbable districts, such as AZ-03) but not NJ-05. I’m not from the district, so I don’t know anyone, but if we had a top-tier populist candidate willing to highlight Garrett’s voting record, I don’t see how we can’t win here.  

  6. We have a great recruit (Steve Sarvi), John Kline is pretty extreme.  He recently pledged to not do a single earmark the rest of his career, way to fight for your constituents…

    While the district has a distinct GOP lean, it only has a PVI of R+3, a Democrat used to represent this area back in the late 90’s early 2000’s.  We have been making some of our gains in the state legislature here as well.  A little focus here could turn it competitive!

    I also don’t like how in MN-3 they already named Bonoff as the nominee, she will get it, but her competitors for the DFL nom. are pretty excellent too and any three of them can win.  But the DCCC doesn’t list Erik Paulsen as the GOP guy in the race, he is running completely alone, I dont get it….

  8. It needs to be seriously targeted.  With a good candidate and a serious effort.  If so, it is very winnable.  I hate having a Rethuglican representing me in the House in a district that Kerry actually won in 2004.

  9. how about Montana AL, Rehberg only received 59% in 2006. With a strong enough candidate and a lot of money we can make this race competitive or even win it. It also helps that popular dems like Sen Max Baucus and Gov Schweitzer are up for reelection in 2008 so all our candidate has to do is to ride their coattails.  

  10. They got NY13 all wrong.  Steve Harrison, who in 06 received a higher pct of the vote than any other Dem since the district’s Republican gerrymandering , is the front runner, not the bizarre candidacy of term limited CONEY ISLAND Councilman Domenic Recchia, who doesn’t even live in the district and thus can’t even vote for himself in the primary, Recchia has no in district support besides two complicit Democrat local office holders and their encourages, who have reasons to torpedo Harrison and keep Bush lap dog Fossella in office.  Recchia does have the support of Nadler, who represents Recchia in Congress, but the problem is Recchia is seeking to defeat Harrison for the right to run against Fossella.  Domenic is running in the wrong district and is the wrong candidate.

  11. I would love to see DCCC get fully behind this race. The seat is currently held by Roscoe Bartlett who will be 82 next year.  This district stretches across the Mason-Dixon line from Baltimore county west to the end of the Maryland pan handle.  Roscoe is a libertarian republican who likes to wave around his little pocket copy of the constitution but with a 90+% Bush voting record, may need to re-read it. He talks Peak Oil but just voted against the House Energy bill pushing alternative energy and higher CAFE standards. He voted against SCHIP twice. His idea of important legislation is the bill he last got passed that allows condo and townhouse owners to erect a flagpole of any size regardless of HOA restrictions. I know I’ll sleep better. There were rumors he would not run this time but here he is.  Recent polling by Andrew Duck has Roscoe at about 26% hard re-elect, abysmal for an incumbent.  The only people who like Roscoe are hardcore base and Mrs. Roscoe. He is an indifferent fund raiser, and I don’t see the RNCC spending a dime on this guy what with all of the other problems they are facing and their financial situation. Really, if he was forced to run hard he would probably fall over with a heart attack.

    Andrew Duck served 20 years in the Army including 3 tours of Bosnia and time on the ground in Iraq as an intelligence officer. He ran last cycle and with limited funding (he was written off by state AND national Dems) and no previous elected experience, gathered the highest numbers ever against Roscoe in an off year election.  Look folks, a seat is a seat and this one can be stolen for $1M. The poll commisioned by the Duck organization shows this is a winnable seat for us.  It is just gonna take the money. Please visit the website at DuckforCongress.org

    1. is that Suozzi has made comments saying that he might back out of politics completely (but we have heard this one from so many other politicians).

      But he is setting up others to run for the county exec spot and he doesn’t seem to have a position lined up so who knows what he’s going to do.

      I liked Suozzi for a long time but he just bother’s me with his overreaching aspirations — it was clear spitzer had won but he was all pissy about it.

      He would make a great candidate tho.

  12. the portion of the chart which is “Leading Dem. Candidate.”

    DCCC tells me that this portion was created by Roll-Call. DCCC supplied the list of districts. Those of you who have a favorite candidate not-named should take it up with Roll-Call.  

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