The Dems and the Repubs have made their choices:
Jon Elrod’s reputation as a hard worker with a track record of winning elections in districts that favor Democrats earned him the Republican nomination to fill the 7th Congressional District seat Sunday.
…
His opponent in the March 11 special election is Andre Carson, whom Democrats selected Saturday to run for the seat held by his grandmother, Julia Carson, until her death last month.
Both decisions were made by party committees, not by the public. The GOP probably got their strongest candidate (relatively speaking), while we wound up with just about our weakest. I’m not thrilled. One diarist at Blue Indiana is even less happy. And CQ rates this seat – which is D+8.7 – at just “Lean Dem.”
Note, though, that the special election, which is on March 11th, is not on the same day as the primary for the November general. The primary will be held as previously scheduled on May 6th. That means that whether Carson wins or loses the special, he might not be our nominee this fall. (Elrod, on the other hand, is unopposed in the GOP primary.)
I hate to be a wet blanket, but recent history in this district – plus the only known poll on the race – doesn’t make me sanguine. I just hope we don’t wind up with another MA-05 on our hands – or worse.
at least for now, but at least it’ll give us a kick in the ass.
Personally, with all the candidate wars going on at Dkos, the rise of the “McCain Demcorats,” who are really just former anti-war Democrats who have switched sides and are afraid to admit it, and the disheartened Democratic base, I am pessimistic of the future of the party. I think we gain too much power too fast and don’t know what to do with it. We’ll probably lose it all again before we can gain a generation-long majority.
…but I honestly think that the question at this point may not be if we lose this seat, but by how much we will lose it.
It’s a bad, ugly situation, and our best hope may unfortunately be a primary fight.
I think Thomas unfortunately may be right that the question is not whether we lose the seat in the special election, but by how much. That said, special elections are tricky things to predict, with almost always low turnout, so we’ll see. If the old Carson machine can turn out central city votes, he still could win.
Andre Carson was about my last choice to get the nomination (the more I thought about it, I really wanted State Rep. Greg Porter), but I will vote for him in the special election. On the important issues, I do think he’ll be a solid progressive. The “lack of experience” really doesn’t bother me too much. But the nepotism and sense of entitlement and arrogance of the handful of party insiders that pushed him really does bother me. And if it bothers me — as a solid liberal Democrat who absolutely adored his grandmother — how is that going to play to more moderate and independent voters? Here’s where my headache comes back!!
So I’ll commit to Andre in the March special election, but am remaining undecided for the May primary. If he can solidly win, I think he probably should be the party choice for the fall. If he narrowly wins, we’ll have to think about it. If he loses the special election, even by one vote, I think we need to look to someone else.
I don’t like legacy elections either, though a certain Evan Bayh seems to have done very well with his father’s name in Indiana.
Nonetheless, the solid Democratic nature of the district, the lack of scandal attributed to the young Carson, the well-funded DCCC, and the sympathy for Ms. Carson should be enough to put Andre Carson over the top on March 11.
I don’t think sexual preference issues are ging to be the deciding factor for very many voters, and a Republican who is pro gay rights is just as liable to turn off his base as a Democrat who flubs an answer in a debate.