The Casper Star-Tribune has the details of the first publicly-released poll of the open seat race to replace retiring Wyoming Rep. Barbara Cubin, and the results are very encouraging for Democrat Gary Trauner (Mason-Dixon, 01/18-21):
Gary Trauner (D): 41%
Cynthia Lummis (R): 40%
(MoE: ±4%)
Lummis, a popular former state treasurer, has 70% name recognition, while Trauner has 80%. If Trauner can be this competitive against the GOP’s top candidate, perhaps he stands a real chance of actually winning this thing. The cross-over appeal is there:
Democrats favored Trauner over Lummis by a rate of 8-1. […]
Lummis didn’t receive the same support from her own party.
Twenty-three percent of Republicans said they would cross party lines to vote for Trauner. Another 23 percent of Republicans were undecided.
Perhaps prognosticators like Charlie Cook and Rothenberg might want to revisit their “safe GOP” ratings for this one.
in the race.
Otherwise 41% doesn’t make me feel fabulous. Most undecideds are probably Republican-voters unsure of what to make of an open seat, and Trauner is going to get most of what he got in 2006, but not all.
When he polls at 48%-50%, I’ll feel better, unless of course there’s a song Libertarian nomineem, like last time.
You can do it, Gary!
Was this seat on anyone’s radar? I know it’s an open seat and all, but I can’t image a seat with a PVI of R+19 was thought as a prime takeover target.
If this seat is worth sinking money into, then all open seats are. This could mean 2008 will make 2006 look like a good year for the GOP.