TX-23: Election Day Open Thread

UPDATE (David): My back-of-the-envelope figures say that Bonilla would need almost 54% of the outstanding vote in order to eke out a win. Doable, but looking increasingly difficult. Meanwhile, Karl says that Ciro is up to 58% in Bexar now.

UPDATE (David): Polls close at 7pm Central/8pm Eastern. And Karl informs me that he’ll be live-blogging the results at Burnt Orange. You can also get results at the TX SoS and the Bexar Co. Elections Dept..

UPDATE (James L.): As mentioned, KT at BurntOrange is all over the results tonight.  A couple of key posts to track as you refresh the TX SoS page include KT’s breakdown of county results for the Nov. 7th election, tallying aggregate Democratic votes to total Bonilla votes.  KT has taken it a step further by tracking the vote tallies as they’ve come in, and comparing the results to 11/7.  So far, not bad–especially in the heavily populated Bexar County.

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Four days, two elections. Tuesday is the run-off between Dem Ciro Rodriguez and Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla. The only poll of the race showed Bonilla with a seven-point lead, but the DCCC has spent close to a million dollars here, which suggests they know something.

I’m not sure what sites to recommend to follow the results, though I imagine that MySanAntonio.com will carry them. (If you have any suggestions, let us know in comments.) And for commentary and analysis,  the Burnt Orange Report is your place to be.

Update (James L.): As noted in the comments, if you have the time tomorrow to do some last-minute phonebanking for Ciro, please do so.  If you want more of an indication that the CW surrounding this distict–that Bonilla is unbeatable, especially by a badly underfunded Rodriguez–has been turned on its head, check out this testimony by converted skeptic Jaime Castillo of the San Antonio Express-News:

Momentum is a fickle thing in politics.

But it has become clear down the stretch of the Congressional District 23 race that one candidate – Ciro Rodriguez – has some mojo, and one – Henry Bonilla – is trying to get some back.

Let me be clear before the guys in white lab coats show up in my office: Momentum doesn’t necessarily mean that Rodriguez will pull a stunning upset Tuesday.

But it does mean that a race many thought Congressman Bonilla would win 56 percent to 44 percent several weeks ago is going to be much closer than that.

The signs of a tight horserace are now too many to discount.

They include:

Bonilla’s late decision to not only go negative in TV and radio ads, but to go with over-the-top spots that paint Rodriguez as having terrorist ties;

The continued involvement of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee with personnel, polls and expensive ads on behalf of Rodriguez;

Bonilla’s decision not to ignore, but to run a response to a critical DCCC spot that says Bonilla voted eight times to give himself a raise (The Bonilla ad says Rodriguez voted four times for congressional pay hikes);

And, finally, President Clinton’s swing through San Antonio on Sunday on behalf of Rodriguez.

Unless this race is close, none of those things happen.

Bonilla wouldn’t go negative. The national Democrats wouldn’t stick around. And Clinton would certainly have something better to do on the Sabbath than stump for a lost cause in San Antonio.

(Hat-tip to BOR.)