While Democrats are licking their chops over the chance to snag another special election victory in the special election to replace Rep. Richard Baker (R), Republicans are reportedly fretting over the chance that the GOP front-runner could end up losing the seat to Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux. From Roll Call:
Portions of a GOP poll conducted March 17-18 and obtained by Roll Call showed Jenkins down three points in a head-to-head matchup with Cazayoux. That’s not great math to begin with in a district that gave President Bush a 19-point margin of victory in the 2004 presidential campaign and repeatedly sent former Rep. Richard Baker (R) to Congress by large margins.
But the numbers get worse when looking at specific important voting blocs in the Baton Rouge-based 6th district. Men 55 and older preferred Cazayoux 51 percent to 38 percent, voters who turned out in the special March primary would vote for Cazayoux 53 percent to 39 percent and those voters who said they are definitely going to vote in the special preferred Cazayoux by nine points.
Cazayoux will face off with state Rep. Michael Jackson in the Democratic runoff election this Saturday, while Woody Jenkins will square off with lobbyist Laurinda Calongne for the GOP nod. The winners of the runoff will advance to the special general election on May 3rd.
OH MY GOD! It DOESN’T Get better than this! Ahhhhahahaha. Better take it all while we can. Lets rock this race!
Here’s a link to Cazayoux’s website: http://www.doncazayoux.org/ind…
how much will the NRCC blow on this race only to see the seat lost before their eyes?
They’re gonna lose LA-04 too. And Ms. Mary Landrieu is gonna show Mr Turncoat Kennedy why he should never trust anything Karl Rove says. What a bunch of Repub losers we’re looking at in Louisiana.
I say on Sunday, (assuming Cazayoux wins the Democrats run-off) we put on an online fundraiser, make a group page on actblue for SSP, DKos, and Openleft, where we try to get 1,000 people to donate $20, for a total $20,000.
That way, we’ll be telling people like CQ Politics why they had this race rated as a toss up, before they put it as lean-Republican again. We’ll also be drawing a line in the sand to the NRCC saying, “We’re here, and if you cross this line, I reckon we’ve got a fight on our hands.”
We can make a hell of a difference here.
– – – – – – – – – – Don Cazayoux v. Woody Jenkins
Total Raised —- $612,745 v. $324,835
Cash On Hand – $159,870 v. $57,221
Cazayoux is popular, Jenkins has lost four consecutive races for higher office. We are going to win. I’ve laid out the reasons twice. Jenkins doesn’t seem to have much fire in his belly, at 66, his campaigning and fundraising point to that. Not only that , but the population of the area has increased by almost 100,000 due to Katrina, including a huge increase in the black population, and huge influx of more liberal voters, and it’s turned the entire local environment aganinst Republicans.
very similar, multiple time statewide loser running one more time for a reliable republican seat with an internal poll weeks before the election showing the democrat winning. i’ll have an icy black voodoo to celebrate if the result is the same!
i’m a little surprised that the liberal netroots have not embraced the less electable, more liberal candidate in this race as they so often (and i might be talking about leslie byrne:)
but i believe leslie byrne is less electable because she lost 11th congressional seat as an incumbent (with 45% of the vote)and she is seen as a more extreme candidate. she has name recognition, but people who have lost races don’t tend to have “positive” name rec (see oberwies, woody jenkins) and have a hard time improving their standing because people’s opinions are well defined.
she has every right to run, but i think it’s odd that the netroots would get involved in the primary. i support the most electable candidate in every race where i can discern one, and i don’t see that ms. byrne is the most electable.
The Internal Poll Has Republicans Worried.But it is a political earthquake. Democrats have not been able to win a single statewide office in Ohio for most of the past decade — and are completely shut out of power in the capitol at this moment.The impression these Republicans had is that support for GOP candidates had nose-dived this summer — in part because of the chaos conveyed by the daily televised scenes of destruction in Iraq and Lebanon and in part because of the dismal reputation built by the Republican Congress that is home to many of the endangered GOP candidates.
mack
http://www.SelectWealthSystem.com/?t=wc