SSP’s Competitive Senate Race Ratings (4/8/08)

Our rating system is patterned after the familiar seven-tier system used by fellow prognosticators such as CQ and Cook.  Here’s what we’ve got for the Senate race scene so far:

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
VA (Open) LA (Landrieu)
NM (Open)		 CO (Open)
NH (Sununu)		 AK (Stevens)
MN (Coleman)		 ME (Collins)
MS (Wicker)
OR (Smith)

All other races are considered “safe” for the incumbent party. However, the following races are on SSP’s list of Races to Watch:

     KY (McConnell)

     NE (Open)

     NJ (Lautenberg)

     NC (Dole)

     OK (Inhofe)

     TX (Cornyn)

Any of these races could earn a competitive rating given the right series of events for the challengers.

Feel free to post your take in the comments.

33 thoughts on “SSP’s Competitive Senate Race Ratings (4/8/08)”

  1. race in Oklahoma move up. He has reportedly hit the $1 million mark, and Inhofe has become more unpopular in Oklahoma than most other Republican politicans in the state.

  2. I don’t think it’s accurate at all to call NH a toss-up.  Check out Pollster.com and you’ll see 13 polls by 5 different pollsters over the past 13 months, with Shaheen leading in 12 including the most recent polls by all 5 outfits and by double-digit margins in all but a few.  Shaheen has a clear and consistent lead over Sununu, and that race accurately must be called leans Dem.

    Also, I think polling and professional commentary on Minnesota and Alaska support calling those races toss-ups rather than lean Rethug.

    On the flip side, kudos to you for calling Maine leans Rethug.  I love Tom Allen and hope he can turn his name rec and money into a close race, but all the polling has Collins dominating and that can’t be ignored.  But a lot of people want to call that a top-tier race anyway.  It may yet become that, but it’s not now.

  3. After the 1Q fundraising numbers come out, I’ll post my predictions for the House and the Senate.  

  4. Yeah, I know, it’s a tough state, but we came close in CD-1 and the governor’s race last year, trends not unlike what we saw in Montana before we started winning big there.  Besides, we have a great candidate in the race and there’s no reason not to put it alongside Nebraska and Oklahoma.

  5. If I was doing this, I would have probably put NH into the lean Dem category… it’s more than a tossup, nearly every poll has us ahead, and its pretty clear that Shaheen has edge here. Minnesota has been, in my opinion, a pure toss-up for awhile now. A slightly blue state, a slightly popular republican state, and a well funded challenger, along with the fact that polls have shown it as a tossup for months now, would tell me that this is at this point a tossup. Similar with Alaska… even if it’s deep-red and our candidate hasn’t officially announced… the polls show it tied or Begich ahead, and getting your house raided by the FBI doesn’t look good for anyone. Also, I’d rate MS-Sen as “lean Rep”, if only for having Musgrove ahead comfortably in 1 poll, at least merits some distinguishment that his chances are decent at this point.

    1. NH to lean Dem and MN to toss-up…I do think AK should stay in lean rep for now, just because of the republican tilt of the state, how long Stevens been in office, and how new Begich is as a candidate (considering he hasn’t even officially filed yet, I believe?).

  7. move it all to the left. I would put both NM and NH in Likely D and CO in Lean D. MN and AK are Tossup’s and ME, MS and Or and Lean R. Likely R is NE and TX I think.

    1. And everyone who is a good politician announces their exploratory committee first, then announces their campaign.  You need to suck the most earned media out of it as you can.  He’s going to run though.  

  8. Rasmussen released a poll that shows Landrieu demolishing Kennedy. She’s up 55%-39%. Her favorables are 65%-32%; Kennedy’s are 51%-42%. I’d probably wait to see another poll that has her lead outside the margin of error before moving it out of ‘lean D’ territory, though.

    Also, I’ve posted this link before, but it’s a pre-emptive strike against anyone coming in and saying “oh no, Landrieu is dooooomed because all the black people are gone from Louisiana.” Not true; Louisiana lost more white people than African-Americans in the 2000 to 2006 period, and many of the African-Americans gone from New Orleans are now in Baton Rouge or Shreveport, which is part of what’s buoying our chances in LA-06 and LA-04.

  9. That is absolutely a toss-up, every poll shows it that way and Franken outraises Coleman every quarter now.  

    alaska i am torn between toss-up and leans gop.

    nh is leans democrat.

    maine and oregon are tricky, do we rate them for where they are now or where we think the race will be come election time.  like in october, those races will be lean Repub, possibly toss-up at that point.  If the election were today, both would win easily.

  10. I’d move NH and OR over one spot. Once Oregon has their primary, should Merkley win, I’d move it over one space as well (there has been little polling on this race recently).

    I would put NC on the big board in the likely R column today and add OK, TX, and MAYBE KY before election day. Kleeb rocks and his fundraising report does make me feel a bit more optimistic but I am still not sold on this race in NE at this point.

  11. In terms of predicted margin of victory.

    very safe = margin > 20%

    safe = 20% > margin > 10%

    weak = 10% > margin > 5%

    barely = 5% > margin > 0%

    toss-up = no clear read either way

    Alaska: toss-up

    Oregon: weak R

    Idaho: barely R/toss-up

    Montana: very safe D

    Wyoming: very safe R

    Wyoming (special): safe R

    Colorado: toss-up/barely D

    New Mexico: weak D/safe D

    South Dakota: safe D

    Nebraska: barely R

    Kansas: safe R

    Oklahoma: weak R/barely R

    Texas: weak R

    Minnesota: barely R/toss-up

    Iowa: very safe D

    Arkansas: very safe D

    Louisiana: weak D

    Illinois: safe D

    Michigan: very safe D

    Kentucky: weak R

    Tennessee: safe R

    Mississippi: barely R/toss-up

    Alabama: safe R

    Georgia: safe R/weak R

    South Carolina: very safe R/safe R

    North Carolina: weak R

    Virginia: safe D

    West Virginia: safe D

    Delaware: very safe D

    New Jersey: safe D

    Rhode Island: very safe D

    Massachusetts: weak D/safe D

    New Hampshire: barely D/weak D

    Maine: safe R/weak R

    I want to see more action from Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, and Mississippi.

  12. I don’t think it attempts to indicate or illuminate the most useful information possible.  What it does indicate, it indicates incorrectly.  The entire “if the election were held today” mind-exercise is kindof bogus, because both candidates know the election is not being held today.  There’s a reason so many races close into tossup at the end, and it’s because the challenger knows he doesn’t have to garner his votes until November, so he doesn’t need to be polling at 51% in April.

    I think this system would be better:

    Strong D Advantage     Slight D Advantage    No Advantage     Slight R Advantage     Strong R Advantage.

    Because what that system attempts to indicate is who appears right now to have the advantage for November, factoring in all the eventualities the campaign might bring.  It also doesn’t attempt to indicate “who would win the election if it were held today”, which is a completely useless barometer.  There is not nearly as much value in knowing “who would win the election if it were held today” (duh, the incumbent), as there is in knowing “considering the amount of time left in the campaign, who appears to have the advantage right now to win in November.”

    A change to that system would do several things.  In the old system, early in the season the incumbents are all piled up in the Likely column, where they stay until about September.    The new system would move a lot of incumbents into the Slight category earlier on, because it wouldn’t rely on the false barometer of “how would the challenger do in an election held today“.  It also would involve less movement between columns; or at least, it would involve less of the predictable late-season drift into Tossup, and the movements it would involve would be actually representing changes in the state of the campaign, not just the universal late-stage closing.  In my system, you’d see considerably more challengers moving from Slight Incumbent Advantage to Strong Incumbent Advantage, in those cases when the challenge fails to materialize.  That movement almost never happens in the other system, because the threshold for getting listed as Lean is so artificially high anyway.

    Anyway, this is about to hit diary length, and maybe it will be one soon.  But the Lean/Likely system has some real, glaring weaknesses.  Being forced to rank in this way 1) over-advantages incumbents, 2) turns out to be an awful predictor anyway (as evidenced by the large number of “ratings adjustments” required in September), and 3) is based on an obviously weak criterion, the ridiculous and counter-factual “if the election were held today”.  That’s the wrong thing to be tallying and it doesn’t illuminate as much about the campaign and election as it could.

  13. Alaska – Tossup to Lean D; latest poll shows it very close

    CO – Lean D.  Pollster’s trend has it at a 7.1 % lead for Udall.  On 12/31, Udall had a big fundraising edge as well….$3.6 million to $1.5 million

    LA – Likely D.  Landrieu has a huge lead in latest poll, and trend is her way (only 3 polls….). On 12/31, Landrieu had $4 million COH, Kennedy less than half a million.

    ME – Disappointing, but I agree with you.  Allen doesn’t seem to be catching on in the polls.  Still, he is raising decent money – on 12/31, he had $2.5 million COH, to Collins $3.9

    MN – Tossup.  Polls are jumping all over.  Franken is raising big bucks, as is Coleman

    NH – Likely D.  Shaheen has big leads in every poll. Pollster trend has it at a 12 point Shaheen lead.

    NM – Likely D.  Udall has big leads against both opponents AND he has a bit more money

    VA- I agree, likely D

  14. You can take New Jersey off your list to watch and list it as a safe D.  Polls often jump around before the election which I love because Republicans waste a lot of money on a lost cause like Governor Keane’s son.  But in the end, the Dem wins by a big margin.  Lautenberg will win by a landslide.  But if you think you can entice the Repubs into wasting some money, be my guest

    1. I meant to say I’d move NH and MN over one spot as of today. I explained my stance on Oregon in the next sentence.

  15. I think you could make a decent argument that AK is a tossup but it is probably safer to place it as Lean R for now. I also agree with CO and NH for the moment but I think they will move to Lean D before the end of summer – the only reason Sununu still has an outside chance is because he is an incumbent.

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