Anzalone Liszt for Travis Childers (likely special election voters, 4/3-7):
Travis Childers (D): 41%
Greg Davis (R): 40%
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Those are the head-to-head results between Childers and Davis. However, in the special election on April 22nd, primary losers Glenn McCullough (R) and Steve Holland (D) will both be on the ballot (in addition to two third-party candidates). When all six names are read, Davis leads Childers by a statistically insignificant margin of 29%-27%. However, it should be noted that Holland is considering going to court in order to get his name off the special election ballot:
“I want the ballot clean,” Holland said Wednesday from the State Capitol where he is chairman of the House Public Health Committee. “I’m not going to Washington for six months, even if I am elected.”
McCullough said Wednesday he also has asked for his name to be taken off the special election ballot, but noted he isn’t “quite as adamant” as Holland.
More information from the polling memo:
Among undecided voters, Democrats have a 15-point advantage on the generic ballot (40% Democrat / 25% Republican), another sign of Childers’ expansion potential. This is the result of high undecided vote among blacks which will most likely go to Childers.
This one should definitely turn some heads.
Previous diaries:
MS-01: Does Travis Childers Have a Shot?
And with lower turnout, possibly throw Childers over the 50% mark. Imagine what the DCCC could do if they undercut the NRCC by jumping in early to try and end it now.
I don’t think you can underestimate the massive bombshell potential of a win here. Could Tom Cole survive losing a double digit PVI seat in the Deep South? Their fundraising would go completely dry, morale would be rock-bottom and they would probably have to put everything left behind McCain. It would also likely bring on more retirements. Worse case scenario they have to spend some of what they don’t have to save it abandoning poor Woody in the process.
Go look at this diary on dKos.
Can the Dems Win One in Mississippi on 4/22? by RBH
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/3/13435/91297/632/489572
Great maps and commentary. But look at the Sample Ballot he has posted there. OMG. The candidate’s names are in alphabetical order.
Could that possibly be true at every precinct in every county? Because if it is true, then Childers starts off with an unearned 2 to 5% advantage from being the first name listed!
Well, it could be true only for the Sample, and it will be different at the various ballot boxes.
But every pollster rotates the names when talking to voters because of the well-established bias toward the first name listed. It could be huge in a race like this.
It could be true. There’s weirder stuff than that in Mississippi, weirder in this election: the ballot does not identify the Democrat or the Repub, and it does not remove the names of the losers of the first primary!
Anyway, I’m reminded why I wanted to change my name to Aaron Aardvark!
Can anyone explain why the primary losers’ names are still on the ballot? What’s the point of having a primary in that case?
If we win a distict like MS-1, then this election could be an absolute blow out at every government level and we should be looking at 30+ seats for sure with 50 not totally unattainable. And I am dead serious, regardless of the special circumstances of this being a special election, winning this would be the nail in the coffon for the GOP and we should be challenging every incumbent in every area of the country because NO ONE is happy with the Republicans these days.
This makes me believe that 2006 was like 1930 and this year will be like 1932 even more. Lets hope so!
to watch the dogfight…
Two things about winning this:
1) If we won this one and LA-6, the number of Repubs in the House would go under 200, which could be an important psychological benchmark that strengthens the D brand a little.
2) If Childers wins this I’d expect to see several more retirements, even though it’s getting a little late.
Lee County has three candidates on the ballot. McCullough, Holland, and John Wages. Holland and McCullough have basically given up and Wages is an official and a member of the Green Party.
So if we go into a runoff due to the protest votes, then that’s not all that bad. It’s a few more weeks to get Childers strong and weaken Davis.
Although it would be irritating if Childers wins 49% and has to go to a runoff due to the Lee County vote.
even getting close is good enough for me. Imagine if even Childers falls just short of victory in a district this Republican and this Southern.
This is the heart of the Republican south.
But we’re a long way from that happening just yet!
How many and which states will not have hit their Filing deadlines by April 22?
…of an earlier poll of another race on extremely red territory.
There was some poll way back when showing Trauner (D) getting 41% and Lummis (R) getting 40% in WY-AL.
Boy, do I love it when Democrats show themselves to be the true big-tent party by running so strong in red districts it seems unbelievable. And once we win these districts…that will be a unique sense of joy.