AK-Sen, NM-Sen: A Squeaker and a Blowout

Rasmussen (likely voters, 4/7):

Mark Begich (D): 45%

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46%

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen (likely voters, 4/8, 2/18 in parens)

Tom Udall (D): 54% (50%)

Steve Pearce (R): 40% (42%)

Tom Udall (D): 56% (50%)

Heather Wilson (R): 36% (43%)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

How’s that nasty primary working out for you, NM GOP?

(H/T: X-Stryker)

7 thoughts on “AK-Sen, NM-Sen: A Squeaker and a Blowout”

  1. Udall should take it by at least ten points, probably over Pearce. I think in all we get a minimum of 6 (Warner, Udall, Shaheen, Udall, Begich, Franken) with Landrieu holding LA narrowly. All made more likely by the breadth of the second-tier (Oregon, Mississippi, Maine, Kentucky, North Carolina, Texas, Georgia, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Idaho) stretching GOP resources way past the breaking point. They must be terrified. Roll on 250 seats in the House, 60 in the Senate and 1 in the White House!  

  2. Rasmussen has such a fine talent for deflating or depressing DEM numbers. A 54-40 by Rasmussen means 62-37 on election day, or something like that.

    And take a much closer look at AK. On the national level, Obama is, for the second time in a row, only 5 points behind McCain. The numbers for Rasmussen and SUSA (from 03/06, in this case) are identical. Which means that Obama is closer than 5 points.

    If the DEMS storm the barricades in AK and Begich gets support at his back and Obama actually campaigns here (most Prez candidates ignore this state), the DEMS can actually win this state in the fall. Ditto MT. Ditto ND. Ditto SD. Ditto NE-02.

    Ditto CO. Ditto NM. And if Richardson is on the ticket, even TX comes into play this year.

  3. Remember the trendlines.  Rasmussen had the race in double digits in both cases in February.  I called that an outlier, and that looks to be borne out by these results.

    Also, outside groups for Pearce against Wilson (CfG) and for Udall against Pearce and Wilson are starting to weigh in.

    Things should be lively.

    And yes, I’m already sick of the politician ads here in New Mexico.  We have four House candidates up on the air so far, and outside groups, and Pearce and Wilson should be up soon.

    sigh

  5. According to Schumer we are up by double digits there in internals.  Obviously he wants to talk up Democratic senate candidates though.  

    A lot of internals have had us leading.  Obama helped bring new life to Democrats in Alaska, I think you have to expect a couple points swinging to Begich here, that pollsters aren’t accounting for.  

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