The following incumbent House Dems won with 55% or less this year. The chart is sorted by margin of victory:
| District | Member | Margin | PVI |
|---|---|---|---|
| GA-12 | Barrow | 0.61% | D+2.1 |
| GA-08 | Marshall | 1.09% | R+8.4 |
| IA-03 | Boswell | 5.20% | D+1.4 |
| IN-07 | Carson | 7.42% | D+8.7 |
| IL-08 | Bean | 7.48% | R+5.2 |
| OR-05 | Hooley | 11.39% | D+0.5 |
| LA-03 | Melancon | 14.70% | R+4.8 |
Melancon and Bean are rising sophomores and both won very narrowly in 2004. It’s not a surprise to see them here, especially since Bean received an insanely well-funded challenge this year. Both Melancon and Bean also had their vote totals chiseled away at the left, in Bean’s case by a former Dem who ran as a third-party spoiler this year, and in Melancon’s by a nobody Dem who was able to run on Nov. 7th in Louisiana’s, ah, unique “jungle primary” system.
Carson, Boswell, and Hooley (all multi-year incumbents) are on the under-55 list for the second straight cycle. Boswell’s margin was nearly halved (10.5% in 2004), though he also received a serious top-tier challenge. He hasn’t had an easy pass since 2000, though, and his bouts with illness (Boswell is in his 70s) seem to make him a regular target.
Carson’s health and age are also continually an issue in her district, and, like Boswell, she hasn’t gotten over 55% since 2000. Unlike Boswell, though, her last two challengers were absolute nobodies who raised nothing. Her margin from 2004 to 2006 also shrunk more than three points, despite this being a strong Democratic year. And, as you can see, her district is by far the bluest on this list – John Kerry won here 58-42.
Hooley, meanwhile, did about three points better this time around, despite facing a challenger who raised almost $1.8m. 2004 was no cakewalk either, when her opponent raised $1.3m.
That leaves the two Georgia members, Barrow and Marshall. Both saw their districts become much more Republican after the GA state legislature embarked on a mid-decade redistricting (following Tom DeLay’s cue in Texas). Barrow, like Bean and Melancon, was also a freshman. Both he and Marshall also saw top-tier, big-money challenges. Yes, they barely held on in a big Dem wave, but they also ran in districts which were half-new to them.
To put this list in some perspective, the following GOPers who got under 55% in 2004 lost this year: Rob Simmons (CT-02); Chris Chocola (IN-02); John Hostettler (IN-08); and Mike Sodrel (IN-09). Bob Beauprez’s open seat (CO-07) also changed hands. And Chris Shays (CT-04), Jon Porter (NV-03), Heather Wilson (NM-01), Randy Kuhl (NY-29), Jim Gerlach (PA-06) and Dave Reichert (WA-08) all had very close shaves.
How many GOP reps got under 55% this year?
I have a mixed prognosis for the endangered Georgia duo. I’m betting Barrow has far brighter prospects for a long career in Congress than Marshall despite Barrow being the weaker politician of the two. Barrow had to face the dual challenge of a quasi-incumbent challenger and the loss of his political base this cycle. On top of that, there were no hotly contested statewide races in Georgia, suppressing turnout. In a Presidential election year, I’m betting higher turnout among black voters helps Barrow increase his margins…and as he becomes better known over more terms of incumbency, his re-election chances should improve. Of course, it’s highly unlikely that Barrow will have district lines as accommodating as what he has now after the 2012 reapportionment, so we can never breathe easy here.
Marshall, on the other hand, strikes me as living on borrowed time. He’s also likely to suffer in 2008 from the very thing that I project to save Barrow….higher voter turnout. With Republicans “disillusioned” this cycle, it’s a likely bet that many stayed home who would have otherwise voted for Collins. As conservative as Marshall is, Democrats simply do not win in southern Congressional districts that are nearly 70% white unless it’s by accident. Regardless of his opponent, I’m pessimistic about Marshall’s chances of surviving the 2008 election.
My money is also on Leonard Boswell retiring after this term. I was surprised he didn’t beat a lightweight like Jeff Lamberti by double digits this election cycle. As red-meat conservative as Lamberti’s campaign was in this most Democratic of years, he should not have done as well as he did. If Boswell retires in 2008, Lamberti is probably the frontrunner to succeed him. Even if Boswell runs for another term, there’s no guarantee the 2008 political climate will be as favorable as 2006 was. Couple that with the increasingly Republican suburban doughnut around Des Moines (where nearly all of Iowa’s growth is occurring) and it becomes abundantly clear that my new home district is gonna be a battleground for the foreseeable future.
Carson’s district traditionally goes more Democratic than it goes for her, so I’m less concerned about the future. Hopefully, Carson has a handle on her own physical and political limits, and has the sense to pass the baton to someone else when the time is right.
According to Politics on the Hudson, a blog that covers politics in the lower Hudson Valley region of NY, Ari Fleischer has ruled out a run against Congressman-elect John Hall. Despite previous speculation – including on this blog – Fleischer recently said, “Now that I have children I would never do anything that could risk making them into Redskin Fans”
should also be on the list of Repubs at 55%, that’s what he got in 2004.
Your analysis is spot on, but GA’s attorney general is Thurbert Baker, not Thurgood Marshall the great SC judge. Baker would be an excellent choice for gov as would Labor Commish Michael Thurmond, who is also black. Interesting that GA, a supposedly racist state, strongly re-elected black dems to statewide office, isn’t it?
I served 16 years in the Georgia House and at times was very involved in redistricting. I believe the GOP controlled Legislature will make adjustments to the congressional map before the NEXT Congressional elections.
Also, the state Democratic Party is in free fall and not withstanding Attorney General Thurbert Baker (who I was elected with to the Georgia House in 1988 and who was appointed to a vacancy in the Attorney Generals office making him an incumbent by then Governor Zell Miller)and Commissioner of Labor Michael Thurmond, the GOP bench is getting deep and the GOP warchest awful full.
Georgia sometimes seems several years behind the national or regional trends. In politics it seems it was the last southern state (Old Confederacy) to fall in the GOP Southern strategy.
survived two tough challenges. Your thought that a white voter is instantly a republican is wrong. Most whites in gerogia, outside of the atlanta exurbs, are still reigstered democrats. They’re just conservative, and legacy democrats who lvoe to buck the party. Marhsall, just as our many other conservative Democrats do, does well among the conservative white dmeocrats, and that’ll be enough to always keep him alive. YOU DON”T GET IT THOUGH. REPUBLICAN turnout was high this year, in 2008 more whites will vote, but manywhite dmocrats who didn’t vote this year will vote as well, not mention there will be a much higher black turnout which is alone worth thousands of votes for marshall. The increased white turnout in 2008 will bring out many conservative Democrats who, despite being conservative, still don’t like to vote Republican nad stayed home this year when they didn’t see any alternative to Sonny Perdue. Marshall will lose in a midterm if he loses. perhaps 2010, though that’s unlikely, democratic turnout will be high that year, perhaps 2014, which could turnout to be a bad year. I feel, because he’s so socially conservative, he’ll be fine until he retires, then, unless this district is redistricted to be more friendly to democrats, even more so than his previous district, we won’t hold the seat.
Gene taylor and Allen Boyd, they’re about as deep south as you can go, there districts are 74% white, and minutely favorable to republicans on National level. Gene Taylor’s district is actually the most republican of all Mississippi districts, it gave Bush 68%, has the smallest minority population, and is republican leaning on even a state level.
Wouldn’t moving Dem strength from Barrow to Kingston make Kingston’s district more marginal and allow a serious challenge from a Conservative Democrat?
I’ve checked your site every day for the past year, my UID is one, one, above his. This user and I are on fairly good terms and I always enjoy talking about Minnesota with, which we have done on four or five accounts. I’ve learned everything I know about Minnesota from Mark. If you must know, the only reason I user caps, was because their is no italics on this site, and I needed something similar. The user, I’m pretty sure, was aware that I was just trying to make a point, and that I wasn’t angry, and wasn’t yelling at him.
On another hand, I’m pretty steamed that you’d so rude and patronizing towards me on the first “offense”. What about me, I’ve been a contributer to this site for a year, my UID is 110, I’ve posted hundreds of comments on this site, I give what I know about politics when I know. I’ve emailed you, talked back and forth with you on Dkos as arkdem14, I’d think that I at least, deserve the benefit of the doubt. If you want to be like that, then it’s fine with me, I’ll follow your wishes and stop posting on this site.
🙂
After slugging thru the comments most of the focus has been on Georgia but when I look at the list of poor Democrat performances it is Julia Carson of Indiana who concerns me.
Julia is a good Congresswoman and a way below average campaigner and she always has been. She has done nothing to merit a primary challenge but I truly wish she would retire so a stronger campaigner could emerge. Carson’s health has been shaky of late as well. We need fewer totally frail Democrats in Congress. The Committee chairs average 69 years old afterall.
I really think Indiana is poised to be one of the fascinating stories election night 2008 because I really do suspect Evan Bayh is going to move on Mitch Daniels and reclaim the Governor’s Mansion in 2008. A Bayh entry would clear the field and Mitch Daniels would instantly be the most endangered incumbent Governor in America. Bayh then appoints good friend Bob Patterson to his old Senate seat and the Democrats will have secured Indiana as the GOP suddenly has a delpeted bench of potential statewide candidates.
Evan Bayh is like Tommy Thompson. Their mentality is to be in charge, not waxing philosophic talking to cameras. I think Bayh would rather be Governor than Senator and if I am reading the tea leaves correctly, Mitch Daniels will be a one term wunderkid. Boy, that sure would be a shame.
Bart Peterson is the Mayor of Indianapolis, not Bob Patterson.