Rasmussen (4/10, likely voters):
Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 55%
John Kennedy (R): 39%
(MoE: ±4.5%)
With Landrieu’s favorables at 65%, her solid lead in this poll should be of some concern to Republicans, considering that this is their only conceivable Senate target this year.
(H/T: Jeremiah)
Late Update: It turns out that no such poll exists:
According to one news account of a new poll by Rasmussen Reports, Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., had a 39 percent to 55 percent lead over her Republican challenger, state Treasurer John Kennedy. According to another account, that same poll had Kennedy ahead by a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 47 percent. Who was right? As it turns out, no one. The first poll results showing Landrieu ahead were posted on the Rasmussen Web site and then pulled after the firm realized it had confused the results with polling done in the Virginia Senate race, which showed Democrat Mark Warner ahead by that same 39 percent to 55 percent margin. Rasmussen later posted the 46 percent to 47 percent results, and then quickly removed that from its Web site.
A company spokesman confirmed that the first results were wrong, but could not explain what happened with the second posted results. All he would say is that Rasmussen doesn’t have any current polling data in the Louisiana Senate race. For Landrieu campaign staff, the sudden fall from 16 points ahead to one point behind, followed by a “never mind” from Rasmussen, was softened by the release last week of another poll, this one by Southern Media & Opinion. It showed Landrieu running ahead of Kennedy 38 percent to 50 percent.
I’ve been looking forward to seeing polling results for Louisiana for a long time now, but this is… unsatisfying. A 16-point lead at this juncture is neither close enough to make the Republicans optimistic enough to dump as much cash as they can in the race. Nor is it far enough apart that the Democrats can say, “Mary Landrieu, you’re on your own. We think you can take it from here.”
Given her Cash on Hand, I think it is closer to the latter than it is to the former.
I think a 9-point lead would have been enough to encourage the GOP to blow more cash here.
That’s effen amazing! Landrieu is up 16% on Kennedy and her favorable/unfavorable gap is 33% while Kennedy’s is only 9%? I’m somewhat at a loss at these numbers. Given her cash advantage, incumbency, along with those favorables and the match-up, this isn’t a toss-up. Hell, it’s hardly a Leans, it’s more like a Likely!
Anyhow, I feel better about this race a lil bit and definitely think that Landrieu has the advantage, versus a toss-up. But I see whre C.S. is coming from, however I’d rather have this at 16% and in a safer place than single digits.
12: Senate Democratic incumbents up for re-election.
12: Senate Democrats re-elected to the US Senate.
PRICELESS!
The competitiveness of this race was vastly overestimated by supposedly non-partisan sources. This race is similar to the Susan Collins/Tom Allen match-up.
SUSA had this as a 4-5 point race in the fall. I suspect it still is.
Also, what’s with the fav/unfav about Haley Barbour doing in the linked ras page? He’s um, the governor of a different state.
I can’t say I care much about Landrieu except that she (1) votes for the Democratic party leadership; and (2) is better than we will otherwise have in LA.
That said, I am very encouraged. The Democrats should be completely on offense this year and maybe this will let it happen. I’d love the DSCC (and the big contributors) to put money elsewhere and stir up the second tier races.
It’s about time. Kennedy’s going to get his butt handed to him by Landrieu in Nov.
1, when was the SUSA poll? i remember one last year, and if we’re talking about the same one, things could have easily changed since then.
2. i’m a little suspicious of SUSA’s rating in non-prez races, given the 40-50% undecided rates for the OR and NC primaries. all of their other polls have tiny undecided rates, except these. i realize that senate primaries are quite a bit different than GE races, or Prez primaries, but still, HALF of the electorate is undecided?
I wouldn’t feel comfortable envisioning this as a potential race for an NJ-style rope-a-dope. This is just one poll, after all. What it will do, hopefully, is dry up Kennedy’s fundraising for a bit. I wouldn’t be surprised if the GOP tries to counter this with an internal poll soon so as to un-spook donors.
going into the 111th will probably be Rodney Alexander, Landrieu’s clout is going to be a pretty potent reason to keep her around (The 111th will be the first full session for at least three Congressmen, and hopefully four if Jefferson loses the primary)
Landrieu could probably pull off more than most of the Congressen combined.
This race would be won by Kennedy. It seems like his only argument is that she’s a Democrat. When considering the fact that he’d be 99 or 100 in terms of seniority, its hard to see how he’d win.
but let’s see some more. as some others have pointed out, it’s kind of a mirror image of ME, with the one difference that Tom Allen is a popular congressman – which is a better launchpad than state treasurer.
and there is some question of how much of Kennedy’s base follows him over to the GOP. party switchers are of course common in the South and have considerable success but the vast majority switich as incumbents and stay in those seats. very few switch and run against an incumbent. does anyone have similar examples?
go mary! if she can withstand what the gop throws at her this year, it will be bad for the gop, and very good for her.