(I don’t agree with every name on this list, but this is a strong diary and good food for thought. – promoted by DavidNYC)
Now it is entirely possible that there are more than Ten Democratic Challengers who ran this time who would make ideal candidates against the same opponent in 2008. It is important to remember that out of 30 Democratic pick ups, just four came in re-matches, and in challenger rematches the two most closely watched, PA 6 and CT 4 were rare loses in an otherwise near East coast sweep. It is important to remember that simply being the nominee last time should not mean the nomination should be yours for the asking the next time. That said the sheer number of close calls means that some of these candidates deserve another look. It is that sprit I present the Ten who should run again, as well five honorable mentions candidates who should be viewed seriously if not automatically favorably if they declare.
1. Larrry Kissell NC 8
The fact that Larry Kissell has already committed to another run makes this choice relatively simple. Still when use lose by around 4,00 votes against a long term incumbent with that large a spending gap something is happening. Kissell was supposed to be a third tier nobody and now he is a clear netroots hero. Congressman Robin Hayes will also find life more difficult with no one there who can tell him exactly how to vote. The district is winnable by the numbers also. Larry Kissell for congress.
2. Nancy Skinner MI 9
This is probably the greatest under-target in the nation and for that very reason Nancy Skinner should be given another shot in this district should she want it. One huge accomplishment of hers was to run through the considerable about of money Congressman Knollenberg had stored up over years and years. She ran a very good race and needs another chance. It also be noted this race was missed almost completely by the mainstream blog’s that could have pushed it higher up. We might have missed a win here, as surely as the DCCC did.
3. Charlie Brown CA 4
This is a somewhat no brainier as the cloud of doubt of Congressman Doolittle continues to grow. Charlie Brown was able to run an extremely competitive race and He makes a great contrast to John Doolittle. I am excited for round 2
4. Linda Stender NJ 7
This was a very close race that and I believe Linda Stender to be the best possible candidate. Mike Ferguson is the type of member who gets weaker in the minority. Linda Stender could very well knock him off.
5. Darcy Burner WA 8
This race is extremely similar to the race just above. Relatively junior members just hold on and with a change in climate after the midterm, Congressman Reichert doesn’t have all his friends to get his back. He seems more suitable for the transition than Mike Ferguson, but the district is more democratic. Darcy Burner proved herself as a candidate this cycle.
6. Dan Seals IL 10
This was a slight under target and the 53% for Mark Kirk shows that might well have been a mistake. Dan Seals ran a very good campaign with a positive results and there are already rumblings that Mark Kirk is going to try and move up or out. Dan Seals should go right back to putting pressure on Congressman Kirk
7. Tessa Hafen NV 3
Probably one of the more heart-breaking loses in the country as Jon Porter won with only 47% of the Vote. Tessa Hafen got 46% if she can just find a way to consolidate the Anti-Porter vote. I think she could very well. She certainly earned the right by taking a race others has given up on.
8. Gary Truaner WY AL
Barbara Cubin is one of the worst members of Congress by fire. She ran under 50% last time and is generally not liked. This will potentially make her vulnerable to a Republican primary challenger who would then be more likely to win the general. Gary Truaner did run a great campaign but Wyoming is just an extremely difficult place to pull off.
9. Larry Grant ID 1
This is probably the greatest shame because it is hard to beat a Republican incumbent in Idaho. No matter who it is. That Bill Sali won means he is going to be extremely difficult to beat now that he is a Congressman. Still Larry Grant’s tough fight in the state would be a great value too it.
10. Charles Dertinger PA 15
This is probably my most difficult call. Charlie Dent needs a really good challenger. Charles Dertinger did everything right, except he raised no money. He could very well be the next cycle’s Paul Hodes but he also might simply be someone who can’t raise money at all. He would benefit from a primary challenger who will force him to raise some money, but he should probably be given another shot. No matter what happens this district needs to have a giant bulls-eye on it.
Honorable Mentions
Erica Massa NY 29, Dan Maffei NY 25 John Pavich IL 11 NC 5 Roger Sharpe Mary Jo Kilroy OH 15
I’d remove some of yours (eg, Skinner), and rank some others higher (eg, Seals), but of course, this is all just a matter of opinion.
Now, someone needs to do a diary on the ten candidates who should NOT run again. #1: Jack Davis.
He didn’t raise any money. We should find another candidate if we want to win that seat. We can probably do better than Kilroy in OH 15 as well.
Esch got 45% against Lee Terry in 2006, with no support from the state party at all. It was a tremendous grassroots effort. He’s not taking any PAC money. Esch already committed to making a run in 2008 shortly after election day. With the news that Hagel’s dropping out of the Senate race for 2008, Esch may be running for an open House seat, too.
should run. I still can’t believe that election was that close. I doubt it remains so in a Presidential year. The performance of that district is usually very Republican.
Being a North Carolinian I can assure that Kissell did a herculean effort to unseat Hayes on the cheap and came within 400 votes doing it. Hayes at 2+ million dollar campaign…a textile millionaire who voted for Nafta and Cafta so all his textile workers like Kissell had to find jobs or..maybe not…used mostly his own money vs. Kissell who had NO …repeat no HELP from Rahm or the national party only the state chair went down and spent the last few weeks helping out…former gov Hunt helped couple saturdays also…that race was pure grass roots and Kissell will win in 08. That district has been safely RED ..a la Helms for two decades or more so to say Kissell was not the right guy is simply wrong.
Hell yes Heath raised tons…he is a millionaire in his own right folks..pro football, real estate company in Knoxville Tennessee! He had the DCC behind him…hand picked by Rahm so to compare him with Kissell shows your lack of knowledge or understanding of North Carolina politics.
Mary Beth Harrell ran as good a race as one could on the limited funds she had. The incumbent, John Carter, is a class A clown who will have some of the most idiotic pro-Iraq War statements to defend in 2008. Harrell, who has a son on active duty in Iraq, is the best person I can think of to contrast with the buffoonish Carter. Give her enough money to mount a full-scale campaign, and you just might be surprised.
Kissell & Massa got totally screwed by the DCCC.
I hope to especially see both of them in Congress some day.
Dan Seals has a future as do many of these fine people, the great majority of whom are stuck with very difficult red districts.
Definitely run again, Eric.
Of a couple races I was keeping a close eye on, his was definitely one of them.
DemAvenger, thanks for the diary and the nod to Larry Grant.
Here in Idaho, we are pleased that Sali was named president of the incoming GOP freshman class. Granted, that’s a very small class! But it should help him stay in the news, which – in Sali’s case, given his propensity for inflammatory rhetoric and occasional downright meanness – may help us keep him to one term.
It’s worth noting that Sali got less than 50% – 49.94% to be exact – in a district that gave Bush close to 70% in 2000 and 2004. So the fact Larry Grant came within 5% in a district that overwhelmingly red shows we are making gains. (We had three third-party candidates here that took 5% total.)
$700K – quite a bit more than Skinner did, for sure. But Kissell also had a very late start, after the establishment choice Tim Dunn dropped out.
He came within 400 votes of unseating a 6-term incumbent, without any major national support until the last minute.
Not a good candidate, eh? Lord, if I can have just one thing for New Year’s, let me have a candidate as good as Larry Kissell, to run in my deep red central PA district!
I’ll back Larry Kissell next time against any asshole that tries for the nomination. In fact, he’s already on the 2008fund ActBlue page, where folks who want to help him retire his modest ’06 debt can help:
http://www.actblue.c…
Sheesh. What are you, a sorehead partisan of the other Democrat he beat in the primary? If he’s “not a good candidate”, how did he beat that other guy, let alone come within 400 votes of a 6-term incumbent?
like North Carolina, voters remain registered Democratic. The current Statewide registration is 45% Dem, 35% Gop, 20% Unaffiliated. That does not make this a guaranteed 10% Dem voting State in National Elections or at the Statewide Level like say California.
The State site does not have a breakdown by CD, however out of the 10 Counties (incl. partial Counties) in NC-08, even though Easley-D was winning by 13 points Statewide, he lost Cabarrus, Stanly & Union Counties by approx. 13,000 votes and underperformed in NC-08.
Dem registration in NC does not translate into Blue voting.
John Edwards-D carried NC-08 by only a few thousand votes underperforming there, and Jesse Helms-R carried it handily 2 years prior.
Things have changed in NC and I believe there is hope that the State can be won by the Dems in a National race, but your insistence that NC-08 is not Red on a Local & National level is not founded in reality (nice try with the voting registration though).
I know the States’ voting patterns fairly well, as I lived there for over 6 years and held County & Dem Party Offices.
If you can find any locals to resolve this issue, fine.
1. Christine Jennings (if she doesn’t get seated)
2. Larry Kissell
3. Jim Esch
4. Ted Ankrum
5. Charlie Brown
6. Lois Herr (ran strong in arguably the most red district in PA)
7. Gary Trauner
8. Tessa Hafen
9. Jill Derby
10.Nancy Skinner
There is a lot speculation here that Deborah Pryce won’t run for reelection in 2008. Everyone–including Pryce–was pretty surprised when Kilroy didn’t win this year, considering the strength of her campaign. The margin ended up being something like .24%. This seat is an excellent pick up opportunity for us, maybe even easier if the seat is open.
Considering the fact that she barely lost, I have a feeling Kilroy would be given the opportunity to pass on the race before any other dems jumped in. Personally I think she should run again. It is hard to walk away from when the difference is only 1,000 votes.
First off, if Darcy wants to stand a chance at getting elected in 2008, she needs to show experience in dealing with policy as a counterweight to Reichert’s meme that he’s The Sheriff (who will protect you). She needs to be appointed by Governor Gregoire or Senators’ Murray or Cantwell to some sort of board that won’t be seen as yet another group of talking heads – energy issues, especially given that this is increasingly becoming an area of concern in this state, would be a good option if it’s available.
Second, it has to be Darcy’s campaign. A lot of locals in the know will complain that it was too much Rahm Emmanuel’s, but, in truth, it was Blair Butterworth’s, the man credited (overmuch in my opinion) with getting Gary Locke into the Governors mansion way back when. He ran Darcy’s race as the best campaign of 1985 I’ve ever seen, in my opinion – pity we’re twenty years past that.
Third, the key to breaking any Republican in winning this Congressional seat is taking the fight to the 5th, 47th, and 31st (and to a lesser extent, the 2nd) state legislative districts. The last two are primarily the Pierce County portion of the district, and it is any Republican candidate’s ace in the hole in the 8th CD. Everybody knew that this effort had to be made, and done well, yet Darcy’s campaign utterly failed to accomplish this task, and any future Democratic campaign simply cannot ignore this salient point.
The Democrats’ 2004 candidate, Dave Ross, as a radio talk show host, had a slew of public comments that could be used against him. In 2006, Darcy was a fresh face with a potentially compelling message, and a general mistrust existed in the area of the Republicans in general and George W. Bush in particular. And yet she only gained 1.5 percentage points more than her predecessor candidate.
This race can be won. But it has to be both thought through and fought for – and that hasn’t happened yet.
1. Nancy Skinner MI 9
2. Larry Kissell NC 8
3. Linda Stender NJ 7
4. Mary Jo Kilroy OH 15
5. Gary Truaner WY AL
6. Tessa Hafen NV 3
7. Larry Grant ID 1
8. John Pavich IL 11
9. Eric Massa NY 29
10. Charlie Brown CA 4