Research 2000 for KCCI and KCRG (likely voters, 4/21-23):
Leonard Boswell (D-inc): 52
Ed Fallon (D): 28
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±5%)
There’s still over a month to go to Iowa’s June 3rd primary, but Boswell has a strong lead so far. With only $20K cash-on-hand at the start of the month, it looks doubtful that Fallon has the resources he needs to topple Boswell this year.
Not in my book.
I’m not sure Fallon will be able to pull it off which is too bad but that isn’t a bad place to be in considering he hasn’t spend a dime on advertising or direct mail. All his money has been spent on staffers and grassroots efforts and he is within 14 points of Boswell. That’s not too bad.
I’m not counting him out yet. He has pulled off some pretty big upsets before.
Isn’t it Leonard, not David?
And you write him off? Congressional primary polls are usually very inaccurate. I don’t think that poll is very bad for Fallon at all.
I have always felt Ed Fallon’s run for Congress was more with an eye on 2010, hoping Boswell retires, than actually having much of a chance at toppling Boswell in the primary this year.
…to replace the retiring Ron Lewis (along with Daviess County/Owensboro Executive Reid Haire). That race could develop into something interesting…
52% for a multi-term incumbent isn’t exactly a strong vote of confidence.
this is about done and might have been done to begin with. to beat an incumbent you have to do 2 things: 1) convince the voters that there’s something so wrong with the incumbent that he should be replaced and 2) that he/she is the one to replace him.
i know that boswell has taken some annoying votes over the years, but he has no scandals connected to him and his personal life is fine. so then it’s kind of a complicated argument that he is too moderate for the district. wynn in a D30 district could be knocked out for a moderate record – boswell in a D1 district can’t be.
further – fallon has only 20K to make the 2 argument in 5 weeks.
Boswell isn’t Lieberman, but this race isn’t totally over. Fallon needs an influx of money and to use that well, but if he gets a perfect storm then a narrow victory is not impossible.