ARG, Nevada, Dec. 19-23, MoE +/- 4%, 600 likely Democratic Caucus goers (545 Democrats and 55 no party).
Clinton 37%
Obama 12%
Kerry 9%
Edwards 8%
Clark 4%
Dodd 2%
Gravel 1%
Kucinich 1%
Richardson 1%
Vilsack 1%
Biden 1%
Undecided 23%
No one’s campaigned in Nevada yet, but so far it looks like Richardson has yet to display any regional appeal here. It’s tough enough to accurately identify caucus goers in Iowa, a larger state with top significance – Nevada caucus polling should probably be taken with a grain of salt. I have no other recent poll for this state to compare with.
Note that Nevada still has a mucher higher proportion of undecideds than Iowa. So far, though, Hillary is the one to beat in Nevada by more than 3 to 1 over any other challenger. Out of the 4 states polled by ARG in this batch, this is Edwards’ worst performance and Kerry’s best. It’s also Clark’s best, which isn’t saying much. Obama places second, but has a lot of work cut out for him here. Vilsack is not credible outside Iowa.
Giuliani 31%
McCain 25%
Gingrich 22%
Romney 4%
Undecided 18%
(Less than one percent chose Thompson, Pataki, Hunter, Huckabee, Hagel, Gillmore, or Brownback)
Best state for Giuliani and Gingrich. Worst state for McCain and Romney.
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….in Las Vegas would dominate the small Democratic caucus in Nevada, and my money is that John Edwards will be their man, particularly if he gets a strong showing in Iowa. There’s a real possibility of John Edwards going two-for-two in the early primaries given the geography of the new schedule. Of course, Obama’s likely entry in the race would likely stop John Edwards’ momentum by denying him South Carolina.