OR-Sen: Merkley and Novick are Neck-and-Neck in New Poll

SurveyUSA (4/28-30, likely voters, 4/4-6 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 28 (11)

Steve Novick (D): 30 (23)

Candy Neville (D): 8 (12)

David Loera (D): 2 (6)

Roger Obrist (D): 4 (5)

Pavel Goberman (D): 2 (3)

Other/Undecided: 26 (40)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

That’s quite a big jump for Merkley, who began his statewide advertising campaign this month.  However, I don’t doubt that the ultimate outcome will be very close.

13 thoughts on “OR-Sen: Merkley and Novick are Neck-and-Neck in New Poll”

  1. This poll vindicates everything I said.  Lower tier candidates would get less support, and Merkley would get a big boost from a big ad buy.  Novick got a boost too, for having an ad buy himself.  Makes sense to me!  No more hearing about how he’s in 3rd, and so far behind.  Thanks for posting!

  2. I wouldn’t say that. Novick’s numbers will keep going up as he increases his name rec with his fantastic ads. But Merkly has much more money for ad buys and so I think he will win with about 50 percent of the vote but Novick will get 40 or more with the smaller canidates getting the rest. IMO.

  3. Merkley’s the safe choice, the establishment choice. That surely guarantees him a floor of at least 35%, probably 40% at the ballot box. He wins if Neville (and to a lesser extent Obrist, Goberman and Loera) takes enough voters that might otherwise have gone for Novick.

    Novick’s path to victory is through remaining competitive in the remaining undecideds (although he doesn’t have to win them) and through supporters of the minor candidates, especially Neville, defecting to him. I could certainly see it coming down to a few percentage points in the end.

  4. Dole continues to poll under 50% and her lead is barely outside the margin of error against a still significantly unknown opponent.

    Hagen will have a big win and tons of free media on Tuesday.  Are the netroots going to realize this is AT LEAST as winnable a race as Maine and Oregon?

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

  5. In the midst of the poll being done, most of the state’s major general interest newspapers went for Novick.  He should enjoy a small bump as people sit down with their ballots this weekend surround by a lot good print.

    The Oregonian, the Willamette Week, the Portland Mercury, the Portland Tribune, the East Oregonian, The Medford Mail-Tribune and the Ashland Daily Tidings have all printed endorsements for Steve Novick in the last week.

    Merkley has gotten the Bend Bulletin, the Salem Statesman Journal and the Eugene Register-Guard.

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