LA-06: What “Tie” Are They Talking About?

The confetti from last night’s LA-6 election has not even been swept away and excuses for the Republican’s most recent humiliation are already rolling out.  This morning, the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza is trotting out the GOP’s argument for why they lost this seat and the IL-14, which they lost in March.

Given the competing national and local factors, both parties have a credible argument to make about today’s vote. Democrats will argue that Cazayoux’s victory in a Republican-leaning seat is yet one more sign that the Republican party’s brand is badly damaged and that independent voters are disenchanted with the GOP. Republicans will counter that both Jenkins and Jim Oberweis, the dairy magnate who carried their flag in the Illinois special election, were poor candidates whose losses should not be interpreted as a sign of anything other than that bad candidates often are defeated.

The tie breaker in this argument will come in ten days time when voters in Mississippi’s 1st district head to the polls in another special election — this one to fill the seat of appointed Sen. Roger Wicker (R). The northern Mississippi seat leans heavily to Republicans — Bush won it with 62 percent in 2004 and 59 percent in 2000 — and both parties have fielded credible candidates. Should Republicans lose in Mississippi, the panic button will officially be pushed among party strategists.

For tonight, the only clear winner is Cazayoux who comes to Congress and immediately becomes the favorite to win a full term in November. House Democrats also have to feel very good tonight, having grown their majority by two seats since re-taking control of the chamber in November 2006.

Tie breaker? There is no tie, we won the first two contested House races of 2008. How many more times do we have to win? The Republicans won for decades with morons like Jim Oberweiss and Woody Jenkins. Look at Jim Bunning and Tom Coburn in the Senate (and may more than I care to list). And how “credible” is Greg Davis when we all know he took awards from the neo-confederate CCC? Yes, Cazayoux is the big winner. It was his name on the ballot, but the victory was a team effort from the national Democrats to the netroots to local activists. This win is a DEMOCRATIC win. But before I wind this diary up, I want to leave you with last night’s press release from the NRCC.

“This should come as a warning shot to Democrats,” the NRCC said in a post-election press release. “The elitist behavior of the Democratic front-runner and the liberal and extremist positions that he and his fellow Democrats in Congress have staked their claim to, do not appear to be as salient as they once hoped.”

Uhhh guys, who won?