Rasmussen (5/7, likely voters, 3/25 in parens):
Jeff Merkley (D): 42 (34)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 45 (47)Steve Novick (D): 41 (35)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 47 (46)
(MoE: ±4%)
Smith is surprisingly weak, even against a pair of challengers who would not be called A-list. It’s no wonder that Smith would hit the airwaves early saying that he’s the “change that Oregon needs”.
“Gordon Smith, Change from himself.”
-Greatest Campaign Slogan, 2008
This is Democrats spending money, giving them a bump against Smith. Smith still has a huge COH advantage we are going to fight off, luckily the DSCC is chain-linking Bush & Co. to his ankle. Good way to burn his cash. Good timing if they run that for a bit now.
…that Obama is crushing McCain here: 52-38.
Why do these polls omit the independent candidate – Frohnmayer – who is running for US Senate in Oregon? I saw some early polls where he was polling in the high teens in a 3-way race (Smith (R) vs. one of the Dems vs. Frohnmayer (Independent)), so a poll that omits one of the 3 candidates who will be on the ballot may not be particularly useful or valid.
This poll gives me quite a bit of optimism. I was pulling for Novick, he seemed a bit more progressive than Merkley, but his recent debate performances and comments have pushed me to supporting Merkley. Merkley down by only 3 points and holding Smith under 50% has to push this race near tossup status.
They are not posted on the front-page of the site yet, but I found out about them on another election forum I read…
VA-Senate
Mark Warner (D) 55%
Jim Gilmore (R) 37%
Nothing unusual. Warner still crushing Gilmore as he has in every poll so far.
MI-Senate
Carl Levin (D-inc) 54%
Jack Hoogendyk (R) 37%
No idea why they bothere polling this one. Levin will likely win by an even bigger margin that 17 points.
http://uselectionatlas.org/FOR…
They are known for being slightly more pro-republican in their polling than other major firms and here are the most recent Senate poll results:
Races we lead outside the MoE:
VA – Warner over gilmore by 18
NM – Udall over Pearce (likely R nominee) by 14
NH – Shaheen over Sununu by 8
Races within the MoE:
CO – Udall over Schaffer by 3
NC – Hagen over Dole by 1
AK – Stevens over Begich by 1
OR – Smith over Merkley (likely D nominee) by 3
TX – Cornyn over Noriega by 4
Races we are behind by >MoE:
MN – Coleman over Franken by 7
ME – Collins over Allen by 16
Races they havn’t polled which we may have a shot:
KS, KY, MS (Wicker seat), NE, OK
It looks like after Merkley started spending money, he went straight up. Hopefully Tom Allen will do the same thing in Maine. I’m really hoping for OR, MN, and ME because having Senators Merkley, Franken, and Allen would be amazing for progressives. All in all, if everything continues to go well, 2008 could be not just a good year for picking up seats, but also gaining better Senators.
Anyway, I’m glad to see the DSCC going after Smith too. Hopefully they can pull it off.