SurveyUSA (5/9-11, likely and actual voters, 4/28-30 in parens):
Jeff Merkley (D): 31 (28)
Steve Novick (D): 27 (30)
Candy Neville (D): 11 (8)
David Loera (D): 2 (2)
Roger Obrist (D): 2 (4)
Pavel Goberman (D): 2 (2)
Other/Undecided: 24 (26)
(MoE: ±4%)
It’s still within the margin of error, but this is the first time that Merkley has lead Novick in any of SUSA’s polls of this race. The full tracking history is available here.
Primary: 5/20.
has Obama over Hillary by 11. Last poll his margin was only 6, so there is clear traction.
I think Merkley is the better general election candidate and he would be one of the top progressive Senators if elected. I really like his focus on labor and environmental issues.
Either way, I think both candidates have been producing very good ads in Oregon and will be very formidable challengers for that seat. Smith has got to do.
Can we expect the actual final results from Oregon? I know that they mail in all their ballots, I’m just curious, do they count them all the day that they’re due, or does it take time after that?
– 43% of the likely voters have already voted. Among those who already voted Merkley leads by 6. Among the 57% who have yet to vote Merkley leads by 3. Very bad news for Novick.
– 24% undecided – that is very high this late in the game.
– The younger voters make up most of the undecides. I would have thought Novick would do better with younger voters but that’s not the case. Merkley leads all age brackets including 18-34.
– The one voting bloc that appears strange is Hispanic voters who make up 6% of likely voters. Hispanics went for Neville over both Novick and Merkley. Who the hell is Neville?
– Asian voters (9%)appear to be the bloc that will put Merkley over the top. Merkley leads by a 56-10 margin over Novick among them. What did Novick do or say to piss so many off???
– All in all the crosstabs strongly point to a Merkley win. Considering how many voters already voted for Merkley, Novick would need a huge lead among late deciders to win this.
That just seems awfully high. I know NC had a pretty high undecided number close in, but I didnt’ think it was that high, and it appears the undecided vote went to the known politican in the race, being Hagan.
I have a feeling the undecided voters will go for Merkley in this thing. Why? I haven’t a clue, but we’ll see in a week’s time.
Yes, most people in Oregon have already gotten their ballots int he mail, and some have sent them in. I think ballots were sent out to voters before around the 1st. I sent my ballot in around two weeks ago.
Only three candidates matter now – Merkley, Novick and Neville. If Neville’s numbers drop, that likely helps Novick. If not, that helps Merkley.
There’s also the youth element – Merkley may lead in the crosstabs, but not significantly and the margin of error for all subgroups will be high. Previous polling still makes me feel that if Novick wins it, it’s on the back of Obama’s youth support.
Other sub-groups – Hispanic and Asian are both pretty small groups in terms of estimated primary make-up. I don’t entirely believe the results here, any more than I think Neville’s strong performance amongst conservatives is indicative of much.
Other sub-groups that look like they might be important are Portland vs. the rest of the state and liberal vs. moderate voters.
Overall, I’d say Merkley has the advantage, but there are still enough undecideds to swing it either way.
It’s close, but Merkley’s clearly surging. People are responding to his campaign and his outstanding record as Speaker of the Oregon House (you know, leading one of the most progressive sessions in Oregon history after leading the Democrats back into power [after 16 years in the woods!]).
Change is coming to our Country. Obama will take out McCain and take back the White House. And Gordon Smith’s going down in Oregon at Jeff Merkley’s hands!