Will this one go down to the wire?
SurveyUSA (5/16-18, likely and actual voters, 5/9-11 in parens):
Jeff Merkley (D): 34 (31)
Steve Novick (D): 37 (27)
Candy Neville (D): 7 (11)
Other/Undecided: 23 (30)
(MoE: ±4%)
Novick leads Merkley among those who have already voted by 6 points. The two candidates are tied at 32 apiece among voters who have yet to return their ballots.
Public Policy Polling also released a poll on this race today (5/17-18, likely voters, no trendlines):
Jeff Merkley: 33
Steve Novick: 38
Candy Neville: 6
Other: 3
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±2.7%)
about how Novick was trying to tie this race to Obama v. Clinton, with some success.
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008…
Both of these guys have run strong races and are good candidates, its almost too bad one has to lose. I think either has a shot in November.
Most of the undecided seem to be breaking for Novick. He should be a good candidate, but I fear he is less electable than Merkley. Hope I am wrong.
According to this poll, of the 77% of voters who have already cast their ballot 14% are undecided. How can you be undecided if you already voted?
Go Novick! I dont want Gordon Smith to lose but if he does, Steve Novick is an honest, non-party puppet and would be a better choice than Merkley.
I must say Im getting sick of these Merkley/Novick ads as well and will be happy to have the primary over tomorrow.
I feel that Merkley is the better general election candidate, though the recent poll had them both close. I am worried that Novick could blow this seat for us. That being said, Merkley has run a poor race himself and seems a little too vanilla. If it’s Novick, let’s hope he can run a barnburner and quickly make peace with the DSCC. We don’t need a situation similar to Shea Porter with a candidate too prideful to unite with the national party apparatus.
In my mind, this race represents the biggest recruiting failure for Schumer, as he failed to get Kitzhaber, DeFazio, Wu, and Bluemauer. I think any of those four would have been great candidates. Alas, that’s water under the bridge. We’ll see tomorrow. I am also interested to see who wins the primary for KY-02. That is a dark horse race for us and the district is even redder than MS-01.
I know they do all voting by mail. Is the deadline for mailing your ballot tomorrow or is the the date it must be received by?
I’m pretty undecided in this race but it looks like Novick has the wind at his back and at this point I’d predict he wins.
Pretty incredible that someone like Novick could pull this off especially against Merkley who is a fantastic, progressive and successful politician.
It the end I think whoever has the best field game will win and from what I have heard Novick has a slight edge there. It will be interesting to see the final result though. And a Novick vs Smith race will be very, very fun to watch. Smith is the ultimate politician and Novick is a outsider among outsiders. It is a stark contrast and I think we can win this.
quirky is for long shots not winnable races. if novick wins the primary, OR will not be on anyone’s top ten.
wyden, smith, packwood, hatfield, roberts, kitzhaber, kulongoski – none are even remotely as quirky as novick. in fact, every one served in the oregon legislature, many in leadership. and while they may be more moderate and more collegial than the average senator and governor, they are not gadflies, they are not blunt, they are not funny, and they are not physically unusual in any way.
it is not a quirky state. i’m from MN – that’s a quirky state. but looking at Oregon, it is clear that the voters appreciate governmrnet service and expect it of their senate candidates.